Road to the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup

That approach doesn't make much sense to me, as it relies on hoping his mark drops back to where it was previously in his subsequent runs....which would need to be in steeplechases anyway if they were to 'help' his mark.

They'd surely have been better running in something like the Durkan over an inadequate trip, and seeing his mark drop whilst still nailing the 'must have run in a chase this season' qualifier. Either that, or adopt the usual approach, and wait until the weights are out, before running in a chase (he wouldn't be short on opportunities).

If the National is the long-term target, there's really no logic to entering him yesterday, and then allowing him to run on his merits.....unless the €16K was important, and I can scarcely believe that's the case.

It's a real puzzler, but it suggests (to me) that they're trying to figure out if they've got a genuine Gold Cup horse on their hands, whilst trying to keep a lid on expectations - hence the Nash still being touted as the 'official' target.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Galvin apparently up to 159. Handicapper taking a bit of a chance, imo.
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Where does this figure come from? The Irish rating changes are published on Mondays. While it might be correct (and I'd be going 160), it would be unusual for a figure to be announced early.
 
archie said:
Where does this figure come from? The Irish rating changes are published on Mondays. While it might be correct (and I'd be going 160), it would be unusual for a figure to be announced early.
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Advised to me earlier today by member Maruco, archie.
 
HRI have done it for a few years now, usually with horses rated on the bottom grades it is more relevant so may have passed you by !
With better horses you get to pick your race but with poorer out of form horses ( if they had any to begin with) HRI pick the races for you !
 
I accept that long-range weather forecasts by their very nature cannot be accurate but the one I've been checking appears to be suggesting that the UK will undergo a largely dry and sunny (therefore cold) winter right through to the end of March.

If this is how it pans out it might make for a weird season with watering being the norm to avoid fast ground.

It will be interesting to see just how (in)accurate the forecast is.
 
Grasshopper said:
Of last season's novices, the one which would interest me most for the Gold Cup is Latest Exhibition, as I don't think he's ever run over his optimum trip over fences yet. I think he'll definitely want 3m+ (Irish Nash probably a shade too far last season), and whilst he is possibly a little ground-dependent, the available 40/1 strikes me as a fair enough price this far out.
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World hurdle is the thought
 
Eklat De Rire starts his season today in Wexford, where he seems to have a reasonably straightforward opportunity in the Listed 3m chase. Makes sense to set his sights lower than the Down Royal Grade 1, given his very limited chase experience to date.
 
I think Conflated can win that. He has race fitness on his side and the trip is on the short side for both Eklat and The Big Boat, sorry Dog.
 
Three miles in Heavy ground is perfectly fine for the jolly I reckon, Euro, and he won his maiden chase after a break of 278 days. Hard to beat, imo.
 
40/1 still which is fair enough I'd say.

I like his profile for a Gold Cup though. The Gold Cup is won by young season chasers these days, usually with virtually no miles on the clock.

The first and second last year had a war, and often they're not the same horse the following season. Good novices are also thin on the ground this year.

If he comes over here for the Hennessy we get to find out how good he may be. If you've got him at 66/1 earlier or 40/1 now he's easy to cash out with no damage if he's not up to scratch. FWIW I think he will, and won't be out of place come March.

The one concern is that no Gold Cup winner for years has won when it's run at any point in the season on Heavy, as it was yesterday at Wexford.
 
seven declared for down royal on saturday

Delta Work
Frodon
Galvin
Minella Indo
Ravenhill
Road to Respect
Fairyhill Run
 
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Frontrunner says it's pissing buckets in the North too, and that Galvin has to be considered a doubtful runner.
 
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