Road to the Champion Chase 2011

Hamm, that's two years in a row now you've eaten your hat on this race. Fair dues but what I really want to know is who you reckon won't win next year so we can take the fancy prices now!!

I was standing beside Mikey Fogarty on the rails as they passed us and th first thing he said was "they're going way too slow....Zeb will make mistakes now" and that's exactly what happened. The ground was also softer than expected and they fairly chewed up the ground on Wednesday. Sizing Europe had the legs of Zeb, but I'd like to see the rematch at Punchestown with a faster pace. I'd imagine Zeb will run as over six weeks time.
 
Fair play to Luke and granger indeed ~ we had good craic talking about this horse last year and the last two Festival's have comprehensively proved I was talking utter shite!

As someone who consistently questioned what he would find under pressure - especially at Cheltenham - I have to say I was seriously impressed by the way he powered up the hill once Lynch gave him a tear of the whip yesterday.

Just comparing the sectionals of the Champion with the Arkle by the way, the time from the third to the line in the Champion is approximately 2 seconds faster (53.1/55.1) than that of the same time in the previous day's Arkle.* Incidentally they covered the four fences down the back approximately 1.6 seconds faster in the Arkle than in the Champion. Difficult to draw any firm conclusions without any figures from previous years, though I would strongly suspect that the Champion was run at a slightly more steady gallop than usual.

*If you calculate the distance of the third last from the line (sectional time * race distance / overall time), thus theoretically neutralising ground differences, you get the third last fence as 3.617f and 3.808f out respectively, suggesting the Arkle was definitely the more strongly run affair.
 
Hamm said:
De Bromhead has certainly gone up a lot in my mind (belatedly some may say). Spoke well before and after, and I judge a trainer by how much you can rely on him getting a horse in peak condition for the days that matter most - he can hardly be faulted, after last year and this.
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Definately. Can not believe this horse went off at 10/1. They lumped on Master Minded which wasn't a surprise, but this is now the one to get excited about in future. He ran so free it was a joy to watch. I don't buy talk of a slow pace, if it was that slow why didn't one of them take him on and do their own thing. What were they waiting for, to win the race off a slow pace?

He was there from the outset, and galloped them all into the ground. Could the time anaylises the guys have given not simply be a case of Sizing Europe going a more even and consistently fast winning pace, which you would do if you near enough made all as he did, rather than perhaps a previous Champion Chase winner like Master Minded in the past who has possibly run faster because he's travelled so smooth for 12F before really turning up the heat for the final 4F as I think Master Minded is best at. Unless there is another Master Minded who can do that in the near future Sizing will be a tough nut to crack.

Never gone so bonkers over a horse race I took a valium last night.
 
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Cantoris said:
Hamm, that's two years in a row now you've eaten your hat on this race. Fair dues but what I really want to know is who you reckon won't win next year so we can take the fancy prices now!!

I was standing beside Mikey Fogarty on the rails as they passed us and th first thing he said was "they're going way too slow....Zeb will make mistakes now" and that's exactly what happened. The ground was also softer than expected and they fairly chewed up the ground on Wednesday. Sizing Europe had the legs of Zeb, but I'd like to see the rematch at Punchestown with a faster pace. I'd imagine Zeb will run as over six weeks time.
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That is a poor post, and makes you come across as a sore loser. Big Zeb was beaten fair and square, and comfortably - you need to accept Sizing Europe is the better horse.

The pace did not cause him to lose. The ground did not cause him to lose. I posted beforehand that a 3 length beating of Forpadydepasterer (his best form) is NOT a good Champion Chase winner. The best horse won, and won well.

What happens at Punchestown is irrelevant. It is all about the Champion Chase and that, and certainly not a race when many are over the top, clarifies the pecking order of 2 mile chasers.

It would do you no harm to admit Big Zeb was beaten by a better horse.
 
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Hamm said:
It would do you no harm to admit Big Zeb was beaten by a better horse.
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Big Zeb was 6 lengths in front of Forpady... in 2010 and 5 and 7 in front of Captain Cee Bee and Somersby this year. You have to think he's run almost to the pound in both renewals.
 
Sorry, you're right. Point made better - Sizing Europe definitely the better horse for me, and I'm the last man in Ireland and England to join the fanclub.

Sizing Europe v Master Minded at the Tingle Creek (where the ground would bring MM closer) would be fascinating.
 
Euronymous said:
With that in mind I wonder if Kauto will be retired if he runs below par again? Just hope he gets round to be honest.
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You would imagine so.

He wouldn't win another King George.

If he doesn't run well today, i think they should strongly think about retirement.

I know connections have stated they would like to run him in a handicap so he has 'done' everything so to speak. But, being honest, and obviously this is my opinion, but i think he would struggle to win a decent handicap based on his recent performances.
 
Hamm, of course I take nothing you say too seriously :D. You have your view, I have mine. Sizing Europe was a good winner, no doubt about it. But what Zeb needs is an electric pace on decent ground. So let's get back to my question, what don't you fancy for next year?
 
Never mind next year.

You have to see who the better horse was.

Or is your excuse Big Zeb needs the other to set a suicidal pace, so he can take advantage late on?

There are no excuses. The best horse won. The best horse is Sizing Europe, not Big Zeb.

There was nothing wrong with the pace or the ground - he just wasn't good enough.

You're making yourself look more than a little silly.
 
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Hamm said:
Sorry, you're right. Point made better - Sizing Europe definitely the better horse for me, and I'm the last man in Ireland and England to join the fanclub.

Sizing Europe v Master Minded at the Tingle Creek (where the ground would bring MM closer) would be fascinating.
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You won't be seeing MM in a Tingle Creek again I wouldn't think.... the plan is for him to replace Kauto in the staying division.
 
Hamm said:
Never mind next year.

You have to see who the better horse was.

Or is your excuse Big Zeb needs the other to set a suicidal pace, so he can take advantage late on?

There are no excuses. The best horse won. The best horse is Sizing Europe, not Big Zeb.

There was nothing wrong with the pace or the ground - he just wasn't good enough.

You're making yourself look more than a little silly.
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I don't think that this is necessarily correct. There could be excuses for Big Zeb. Just because a horse is beaten in one race, it doesn't necessarily mean that he is inferior to the winner.

Taking Sizing Europe as an example, last season some people thought (rightly in hindsight) that SE had proven himself superior to Somersby, Mad Max and Riverside Theatre. But some felt that the beaten horses had legitimate excuses.

I have had a look at the race a few times since, and I think the pace was slow. I think that both horses would prefer a strong pace, but Big Zeb didn't jump as fluidly. I would like to give another chance to Big Zeb against Sizing Europe to prove himself. And I wouldn't think somebody is "more than a little silly" for thinking he might do that.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I don't think that this is necessarily correct. There could be excuses for Big Zeb. Just because a horse is beaten in one race, it doesn't necessarily mean that he is inferior to the winner.

Taking Sizing Europe as an example, last season some people thought (rightly in hindsight) that SE had proven himself superior to Somersby, Mad Max and Riverside Theatre. But some felt that the beaten horses had legitimate excuses.

I have had a look at the race a few times since, and I think the pace was slow. I think that both horses would prefer a strong pace, but Big Zeb didn't jump as fluidly. I would like to give another chance to Big Zeb against Sizing Europe to prove himself. And I wouldn't think somebody is "more than a little silly" for thinking he might do that.
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The fact that Somersby was able to lie up with ease , then was outpaced certainly supports the view that the pace was pedestrian. Admittedly, nowadays that is also likely to have counted against Master Minded too.
 
But last year's renewal was pants. Like I said earlier Forpady... was 6L behind Zeb in 09, Captain Cee Bee was 4L behind him this time. I really can't see how the horse has run any worse this year.
 
Big zeb's best form is a few lengths beating of Forpady. Lets not forget that.

It would do Cantoris no harm to say the best horse won.
 
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