Road to the Champion Hurdle 2023

I see McCoy is quoted as saying:


“I heard Matt Chapman say he’s the best horse he’s ever seen, I think that’s a bit much when you look at the Kauto Stars, the Istabraqs, the Hurricane Flys – he’s got a bit to go to get to that,” McCoy said.
“He was brilliant and it was brilliant to watch and if you’re Nico de Boinville you know he’s the horse everyone in jumps racing wants to have, there’s no doubt.
“It’ll be interesting if he did win the Champion Hurdle whether you’d go down that route for another one, or look to do something else with him.”
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I'm afraid that, for such a prolifically successful jockey, he's an absolute tube as a pundit.

Does he not know how form handicapping works?

I was giving Istabraq marks in the high 170s and saying I felt he had 180 in him but he was never asked to do it so he can't be credited with it. I reckon CH achieved more today from a ratings perspective, despite being eased down, than Istabraq ever did.

I don't think it's fair to compare CH with the great chasers of the past until he actually goes over fences but I have no doubt in my own mind that he is the best hurdler I've ever seen and he's only one race past the novice stage with further improvement to come.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I see McCoy is quoted as saying:




I'm afraid that, for such a prolifically successful jockey, he's an absolute tube as a pundit.

Does he not know how form handicapping works?

I was giving Istabraq marks in the high 170s and saying I felt he had 180 in him but he was never asked to do it so he can't be credited with it. I reckon CH achieved more today from a ratings perspective, despite being eased down, than Istabraq ever did.

I don't think it's fair to compare CH with the great chasers of the past until he actually goes over fences but I have no doubt in my own mind that he is the best hurdler I've ever seen and he's only one race past the novice stage with further improvement to come.
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I’m really suffering at the moment but that cheered me up no end and I’d need some convincing that he isn’t the best I’ve ever seen and I expect him to prove it race by race as we go on. Today, even being eased down, the time was fast by 2.63
 
Last year the ground was Good to Soft but overall it was riding much slower than today. Each hurdle race was run in much quicker times this year by about the same as the FF22 v the FF21. Not sure how we should look at the times as a guide but visually it was devestating.
 
What SP is Con Hill Champ Hurdle day if the mare also lines up unbeaten?

I reckon you might actually get a price around 8/13 or 4/7 when the part time punters back Honeysuckle! Or is that wishful thinking?

If the mare loses between now and then you’re looking at 1/4 or shorter
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I see McCoy is quoted as saying:




I'm afraid that, for such a prolifically successful jockey, he's an absolute tube as a pundit.

Does he not know how form handicapping works?

I was giving Istabraq marks in the high 170s and saying I felt he had 180 in him but he was never asked to do it so he can't be credited with it. I reckon CH achieved more today from a ratings perspective, despite being eased down, than Istabraq ever did.

I don't think it's fair to compare CH with the great chasers of the past until he actually goes over fences but I have no doubt in my own mind that he is the best hurdler I've ever seen and he's only one race past the novice stage with further improvement to come.
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Can’t agree with this, DO. What’s Epantante capable of over 2m these days? Early 160’s at the most, I reckon.

CH is a horse to savour, but it’s probably best not to go overboard about the merits of today’s performance, until we see him repeat it in the white-heat of a truly competitive G1.

FWIW, I have no doubt whatsoever you will be proven right eventually…..just not today.
 
Grasshopper said:
Can’t agree with this, DO. What’s Epantante capable of over 2m these days? Early 160’s at the most, I reckon.
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Early 160s?

Okay let's say 160, which ties in with what I said earlier about her being about 6lbs better than her OR.

He's given her 7lbs so had they dead-heated he'd be 167. He's beaten her 12 lengths, which equates to 13.2lbs at 2m, so 180.2.

Then add on what he had in hand. I reckon, very conservatively, five lengths, or 5.5lbs, so we're already looking at 185.7. I never had Istabraq near that on actual figures and I don't think Hurricane Fly was in the same league as Istabraq.

As I said earlier, I went with Epatante's current mark, which brought CH back down 6lbs. Istabraq's career high OR was 176. I reckon on Tuesday we'll see CH accorded at least that. And, as I said, that's just one run into his first season out of novice company.
 
I didn't realise the height of him until I saw him in the parade ring today.

He looked a good 3 inches taller than anything else in that race today.

He's built for the job then....
 
Desert Orchid said:
Early 160s?

Okay let's say 160, which ties in with what I said earlier about her being about 6lbs better than her OR.

He's given her 7lbs so had they dead-heated he'd be 167. He's beaten her 12 lengths, which equates to 13.2lbs at 2m, so 180.2.

Then add on what he had in hand. I reckon, very conservatively, five lengths, or 5.5lbs, so we're already looking at 185.7. I never had Istabraq near that on actual figures and I don't think Hurricane Fly was in the same league as Istabraq.

As I said earlier, I went with Epatante's current mark, which brought CH back down 6lbs. Istabraq's career high OR was 176. I reckon on Tuesday we'll see CH accorded at least that. And, as I said, that's just one run into his first season out of novice company.
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Question is: did she run to even 160 today? She’s a mare that improves through the season. Also, forget “what x horse had in hand’ - it seems you didn’t afford Istabraq such latitude, therefore you shoukd surely apply the same measure to CH?

i’m not getting into a barney with you about this. It’s clear that CH is a monster.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Question is: did she run to even 160 today? She’s a mare that improves through the season.
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I can see that possibility but, respectfully, it was yourself who suggested she ran to "early 160s". I'm happy not to get too hung up on that.

Looking at it via Not So Sleepy which was off OR 158: giving Ep 7lbs, he was beaten 2¼ lengths by her - call it 3lbs - so he should be rated 4lbs higher than her. ORs 154 vs 158. Bang on. (But just as I have Ep 6lbs higher than her OR, I have NSS 3lbs higher than his, so if he ran to 161 she ran to 157, about midway between the two.)

But, as I say, even allowing for her running to 154, it still gives CH a huge 174+ minimum plus whatever he had in reserve.
 
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Beef or Salmon said:
Exactly and did Not so Sleepy run to 165, very very unlikely. Tend to agree with McCoy.
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As mentioned elsewhere, apparently what the clock is suggesting is that it was a very fast-run race and, as I suggested before the race, I felt this was NSS's 'champion hurdle'. I'd be surprised if he didn't run to at least his OR.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I can see that possibility but, respectfully, it was yourself who suggested she ran to "early 160s". I'm happy not to get too hung up on that.

Looking at it via Not So Sleepy which was off OR 158: giving Ep 7lbs, he was beaten 2¼ lengths by her - call it 3lbs - so he should be rated 4lbs higher than her. ORs 154 vs 158. Bang on. (But just as I have Ep 6lbs higher than her OR, I have NSS 3lbs higher than his, so if he ran to 161 she ran to 157, about midway between the two.)

But, as I say, even allowing for her running to 154, it still gives CH a huge 174+ minimum plus whatever he had in reserve.
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Fair enough….:.I won’t get too hung up on it either, other than to say, I made didn’t really make any comment in my original post on what Epetante ran to tday - it was more generic about her optimum level at 2m.

No matter.

174 is 174……it is what it is…….but I’d add a P the size of a house to it. We could argue lbs here or there all night.

i just hope he stays sound, and the ground at Christmas is what he is after.
 
Desert Orchid said:
As mentioned elsewhere, apparently what the clock is suggesting is that it was a very fast-run race and, as I suggested before the race, I felt this was NSS's 'champion hurdle'. I'd be surprised if he didn't run to at least his OR.
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I have trouble believing a horse approaching its 11th Birthday and having its 60th run is capable of running anywhere near those numbers, remember he was also beaten by 13l and 9l in his two clashes with Honeysuckle. If the mare goes to 5/1 or bigger She will be one of the greatest e/w bets to nothing ever.
 
Well, he got RPRs of 158 and 156 for those two defeats and he was recently an excellent third in the Cesarewitch, equalling his previous best Flat RPR, so the argument that he is in decline doesn't really hold water.
 
I really don't mean to offend but to me what DO is doing is complete nonsense.

You could argue all day that the Timeform rating of 177+ even after todays performance can't be justified.
Trying to do so using the opposition to date is crazy.

You can't possibly get to 180+ but when a horse like him put's up an Arkle like performance not once but 4 times
you can throw the form book out the window.

Night Nurse had Monksfield Sea Pigeon and Birds Nest around and his 182 was justified by beaten them.

Constitution Hill has met nothing of that caliber but he has given the impression that no matter what you put in front of him the result will be the same.

Come March if Honeysuckle and the likes of Statesman go there unbeaten and he beats them in the same Arkle like fashion he will be given a 184 by Timeform and justifyably so.
 
My final word:

I don’t think CH got to a 180 rating today……but I’d be disappointed if he didn’t breach that number comfortably before the end of the season.

CH is without a doubt the most exciting horse in NH racing since Faugheen, and it will be somewhat of a disappointment - based on what I witnessed today - if he doesn’t shove himself in amongst the likes of Night Nurse etc.
 
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If you eliminate the WOW! factor then it is near impossible to come up with a 180

Champion Hurdle Epatante beats Oh So Sleepy by 9 lengths and Tommy's Oscar by 20 lengths

Fighting Fifth Epatante beat Oh So Sleepy but 2 1/4 lengths and Tommy's Oscar by 9 lengths lengths

Too easy to argue Epatante was not at her best today.
 
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Tanlic said:
If you eliminate the WOW! factor then it is near impossible to come up with a 180

Champion Hurdle Epatante beats Oh So Sleepy by 9 lengths and Tommy's Oscar by 20 lengths

Fighting Fifth Epatante beat Oh So Sleepy but 2 1/4 lengths and Tommy's Oscar by 9 lengths lengths

Too easy to argue Epatante was not at her best today.
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Epatante only beat Oh So Sleepy (kept on) 4 Lengths in the champion Hurdle and Tommys Oscar (eased) 20 Lengths. Yesterday they ran through to the line!

You could argue that this is OH So Sleepy's Champion hurdle and that he is tuned to the minute....

Constitution Hill was eased from the second last, more so over the last to the line...Epatante was pushed all the way to the line to hold off OSS. I measured the drop in pace over the last to approx 4 lengths, giving another 2 for the penultimate easing; he was good for an 18-length hiding on the bridle.

Epatante was 0.83 above standard yesterday on Gd/soft ground. OSS hit standard. With the mares allowance, these two were given 160 RPR's for their dead heat last year, on identical ground, that was run 2.4 seconds below standard and substantiated by the proximity of a very fit 158-rated Sceau Royal. I have no reason to believe that their performances were near to their best yesterday and why wouldn't they be, with prize money, risk of injury, 3 months to Cheltenham and future insight to be gleaned from not being so...

They didn't have a pacemaker last year that could give them the tow that CH gave them yesterday, with a faster middle pace, their times would/could have been just as good!

Epatante scraped over the line just behind Jonbon (149) on a video comparison in March. Jonbon (kept up to his work) was 22 lengths behind the eased-down CH. Epatante was given 157, Honeysuckle 159, CH was given 177. He hit slightly over the 180 in my calculation.
A much more mature individual, making his own pace; slaughtered two tuned-up 160 capable performers on the bridle by an eased-down 12 Length's, so that makes it impossible to conclude a 180 yesterday but surely he has it in the locker!!!
 
Why "eliminate the 'wow' factor"?
CH's class was there for all to see, though it's anybody's guess how far he could have won,he turned good horses inside out, witth apparent nonchalence.
On ground many described as 'sticky' he shot standard time to bits, on a day where nothing else got close to it (except maybe Epatante, buried in his wake).
For mine, I'm convinced we saw a monster yesterday, and I hope he stays sound to endorse that view.
 
“Wow” indeed. The horse has only had four runs, the last three Grade 1, but I’ve never, ever, seen top level runs like it with the opposition not just beaten but destroyed without breaking sweat, with nonchalant ease and including a power burst when Nico asked for it, again seemingly without effort.

He’s barely started his career, so I’ll just enjoy what he’s doing and let the ratings takes care of themselves.
 
In terms of the level of Constitution Hill’s performance, I would place it in the same ballpark as Faugheen’s Irish Champion Hurdle (when he cantered all over Arctic Fire and Nicholls Canyon).

What’s amazing about this horse, is that he’s reached that sort of level after less than a handful of hurdles runs.
 
Sizing Europe's Irish Champion win was one I could not believe with my eyes.
Pity he never repeated it over hurdles though more than made up for it over fences.
Faugheen's win in the same ball park Grassy for sure.
 
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