Road To The Champion Hurdle
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EC1
On a break
i didn't standardise them to a mile for the simple reason that even when that was done the race was the fastest on the card by a disproportionate amount compared to the class of horses involved.
if the race was a crawl...then they must have completely walked in the other races
if the race was a crawl...then you needn't look any further for the CH winner..because to show that that kind of final time the first two must be exceptionally good horses...be interesting to see when the 2nd runs again.
I just went by my live assessment of the race...hence I thought about the CH that panned out in a similar manner.
as I have said before...some on here seem to be making out that some of these two mile hurdlers have the speed of 5f horses...which is a bit odd int it?
It wasn't on the inside track. Or not the track it used to be run on.
The logic to say it was a fast run race was that Hardy was flat out down the far side and his jump at the last down the back was a "tired" jump. But Dessie said afterwards he wasn't right and dull beofre the race and Ruby siad Hardy was flat out down the far side and couldn't go any quicker.
Did you take note of the pacemakers?
The logic to say it was a fast run race was that Hardy was flat out down the far side and his jump at the last down the back was a "tired" jump. But Dessie said afterwards he wasn't right and dull beofre the race and Ruby siad Hardy was flat out down the far side and couldn't go any quicker.
Did you take note of the pacemakers?
EC1
On a break
well..as said...if the pace WAS slow then the two that pulled clear have run incredible later fractions...so...the 2nd horse must be a shoe in next time at least.
the overall time was very decent for slow early fractions...so we must all be in the same mind if we all think it was slow..i'll go along with it...but it must tell everyone that the front two have achieved something decent here...so instead of the form being worthless...its actually worth a great deal...if we want to back winners from it.
the overall time was very decent for slow early fractions...so we must all be in the same mind if we all think it was slow..i'll go along with it...but it must tell everyone that the front two have achieved something decent here...so instead of the form being worthless...its actually worth a great deal...if we want to back winners from it.
Yes!!
Toshiba Irish Champion Hurdle
Ladbrokes: 5-2 Sublimity, 4 Sizing Europe, 9-2 Jered, 5 Harchibald, 10 Brave Inca, Jazz Messenger, Muirhead, Won In The Dark, 14 Ebaziyan, Hardy Eustace, 16 Aitmatov, 20 Beau Michael, Silent Oscar, 25 River Liane, 50 bar.
Ladbrokes: 5-2 Sublimity, 4 Sizing Europe, 9-2 Jered, 5 Harchibald, 10 Brave Inca, Jazz Messenger, Muirhead, Won In The Dark, 14 Ebaziyan, Hardy Eustace, 16 Aitmatov, 20 Beau Michael, Silent Oscar, 25 River Liane, 50 bar.
uncle goober
At the Start
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Truly is an Irish Champion Hurdle ! No British entries at all ?
It's alright everyone saying Sizing Europe has a problem and all that but he was a good handicapper who won a handicap getting 6lb from a not fully fit Osana. He beat Hardy Eustace impressively in January but Hardy Eustace is not a horse you would expect to be in the mix in a Champion nowadays. Found out next time in the Champion.
Came back and looked the winner at Punchestown but blew up. Only Hardy Eustace beat him which was good for HE but not Champion Hurdle form again.
Travelled well last time but again put in his place by 2 former champions and an improving type. Beaten 8L by a horse only good enough to come 4th in last years Champion.
I said before last years festival his form was nowhere near the standard of Champion Hurdle class and actually advised alot of people to lay him.
I also suggested in the OHRacing Ten To follow comp that he should be left out as he isn't as good as people think, and he was a horse that was hyped up after 2 wins of a high class handicapper.
For me the horse is seriously overrated. There is no problem, no head issues, he just isn't the horse he has been made out to be. He has never proven to be good enough to win a Champion and none of his form really stands up, bar the Osana form but there was reason's for Osana's defeat that day. The horse is a handicapper and no more, but has been glammed up to look better. I have laid him a few times with figures suggesting he is a handicapper at best. 4/1 for the Leopardstown race is one of the lays of the year. The horse just isn't good enough and the form of his win last January also says that. It's okay winning races looking like there's more in the locker, but everytime he comes off the bit he stops at this level which would suggest had he been pushed out in his two wins he wouldn't have won any further.
Came back and looked the winner at Punchestown but blew up. Only Hardy Eustace beat him which was good for HE but not Champion Hurdle form again.
Travelled well last time but again put in his place by 2 former champions and an improving type. Beaten 8L by a horse only good enough to come 4th in last years Champion.
I said before last years festival his form was nowhere near the standard of Champion Hurdle class and actually advised alot of people to lay him.
I also suggested in the OHRacing Ten To follow comp that he should be left out as he isn't as good as people think, and he was a horse that was hyped up after 2 wins of a high class handicapper.
For me the horse is seriously overrated. There is no problem, no head issues, he just isn't the horse he has been made out to be. He has never proven to be good enough to win a Champion and none of his form really stands up, bar the Osana form but there was reason's for Osana's defeat that day. The horse is a handicapper and no more, but has been glammed up to look better. I have laid him a few times with figures suggesting he is a handicapper at best. 4/1 for the Leopardstown race is one of the lays of the year. The horse just isn't good enough and the form of his win last January also says that. It's okay winning races looking like there's more in the locker, but everytime he comes off the bit he stops at this level which would suggest had he been pushed out in his two wins he wouldn't have won any further.
EC1
On a break
Won In The Dark must be the value bet of the year at that price
Grasshopper
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The December Hurdle isn't worth a carrot form-wise, and Won In The Dark has no chance in a Champion Hurdle - Irish or otherwise.
You can quote me on that at months-end, if you like, EC1.
You can quote me on that at months-end, if you like, EC1.
EC1
On a break
in that case Grass...it can't have been a slow run race then...simple as...wish you guys would make your mind up
i don't really understand how experienced race readers like you guys can argue a race is slow run...which to me was a fair argument...but then when the race is run in an overall decent time can't see that horses must have run to a very high level to produced that overall time off a slow pace.
mystifying
the Irish CH is between Sublimity & Won In The Dark simply due to the level of form they showed off that slow pace...which all you guys say it was.
i don't really understand how experienced race readers like you guys can argue a race is slow run...which to me was a fair argument...but then when the race is run in an overall decent time can't see that horses must have run to a very high level to produced that overall time off a slow pace.
mystifying
the Irish CH is between Sublimity & Won In The Dark simply due to the level of form they showed off that slow pace...which all you guys say it was.
trackside528
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Harbinger
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Flame - there was a discussion on here about the worth of last year's AIG after the race. In that thread, Hardy Eustace and Al Eile were called past it, never good enough in the first place, needing further, all sorts. They both came out and won Grade 1 hurdles since.
How on earth does a horse weakening from looking the winner at the top of the hill to tailed off walking over the line say "handicapper" and not "big problem"?
How on earth does a horse weakening from looking the winner at the top of the hill to tailed off walking over the line say "handicapper" and not "big problem"?
Sheikh
At the Start
Flame I'm not sure if you had the benefit of being there that day, but this was not a case of horse beating sub standard rivals. He was istabraq -esque the way he put them to the sword and the time was pretty good too. We haven't see the same Sizing Europe since that day. I don't think we'll see him perform like that on goodish ground in Cheltenham either.
I'll answer my reason's separately.
In regards to Gareth's comment's about how can a horse go from cantering and looking like winning the Champion and then walking across the line, be called a handicapper.
Well first of all, it's all being well saying "looking" "Cantering" and naming him the "winner" however he went from cantering to nothing, and wouldn't be the first horse to do so, he was "cantering". I for one don't feel he actually was cantering over his rivals, he has a high cruising speed which enables him to travel strongly in his races but being unable to sustain a higher speed or a progressive turn of foot lets him down. Naming any horse the "winner" except on the line is technically insulting the opposition. He may have appeared to have been travelling best at a certain point in the race but that doesn't mean he looks the winner. If you stop most races 2 out say and pick the horse travelling best, you won't always back the winner and more times than not you will back a loser. A lot of horses which travel really well don't always pick up, some will call them ungenuine, short runners, bridle horses and names which doesn't describe them. It's all about a horses confidence. Certain horses enjoy being able to weave through horses travelling easily and being produced where it matters because when they have to be worked they either can't quicken or they won't quicken. Another aspect is some horses have only one speed, a lack of a turn of foot (maybe have a short extra burst of speed) which will see a horse travel easily in a race but not do a lot once driven, in a strongly run race these types of horses are suited. They are not ungenuine, they are just different traits the horses have.
My regards to call him a handicapper Gareth is simple, as that is the level I see him at, I think even off high weights in feature handicaps he would perform better than against Grade 1 animals. You said something I feel pretty strongly about as well, you named the top of the hill at Cheltenham, all of 4f from the finish line. Why should the horse going best there, be the best in your race, it's 75% of the race gone, stopping any race at 75% of its distance, I could ask you to name the winner, and 9/10 times I reckon you would be wrong, that's not singling out Gareth that's anyone. The walking across the line I can't explain but once his chance had gone he was dramatically eased, it wasn't as if he was scrubbed all the way to the finish, say he was driven all the way to the line he would have probably been beat 15 - 20L I reckon.
In regards to Hardy Eustace and Al Eile. I accept they are good horses but neither of them are ever going to win another Champion Hurdle and to be frank neither of them possess the class nor the speed to place in one. I think Hardy Eustace is a good form guide to most races but I'm far from convinced he is a 2m any more. His defeat of Sizing Europe on SE's comeback showed he was more tuned for the day and outstayed SE however you won't see HE any better than 6th or 7th in a Champion nowadays. As for Al Eile he is a different horse over 2m 4f at Aintree than over 2m anywhere, simply outpaced behind Se in my opinion and whilst yes very good using that basis of form that, a is better than b at this trip but b is better at the next trip, than the first trip is a pretty quick way to the skint house. Al Eile has not looked a 2m for a couple of season's but his form over 2m 4f is solid at group 1 level, I wouldn't be using him as a benchmark of 2m form.
No i wasn't present to see Sizing Europe's impressive win last year but I was at Leopardstown in 2006 at the Chrismas meeting when he came swinging there 2 out against De Valira and then from the bend he failed to quicken having looked the winner at weakend. How he ran that day is exactly how he has ran the last twice.
The key point for me is this horse won a Cheltneham handicap off 137 and was raised to 143. He then won his impressive AIG, he was raised to 167. However can someone explain to me how that on all subsequent form at that trip, justified a 24lb rise. I am not suggesting he is only a 143 horse, I would accept he is somewhere between 150 and 155, which would be some 12 - 15L off Champion Hurdle class. His 8l beating by Sublimity who was beaten 4L by Katchit in March would put him 12L off last years Champion hurdle winner on collateral form, which is pretty close to how I see him. For a horse which stopped quickly at Leopardstown in many peoples view, he was headed and beaten some 1.5f from the line, however was only beat 8.75L. This to me is not a horse with a problem or an attitude problem as the actual distance beaten in regards to when he stopped looking the winner is not a big one, had he dropped 25L off I would accept a case of the above.
I just don't see this horse as a genuinely Champion Hurdle horse and none of his form except last years AIG puts him close. Could it not be question that Al Eile was actually outpaced in the AIG and Hardy just runs his race in any contest. Hardy's performance last time at Leopardstown saw him weaken turning in, he was eased late on but was around 14L off Sizing Europe, give or take 5L for him being eased, gives you around 9L, a similar distance to what he was beaten by Sizing Europe in the AIG.
It's okay saying Sizing Europe beat a solid grade 1 horse in Hardy Eustace in the AIG easily but in all Hardy Eustace's form since it can be questioned how good he actually really is ?, Brave Inca who looked in need of a run gave him a 7L beating, with the winner Catch Me far from impressive next time (maybe non stayer). The form with Sizing Europe is yet to be opened up by Jered but Hardy controlled the race that day, the 4th Won In The Dark was never travelling in that race so I'm far from convinced his improvement can be notioned that Sizing Europe is still a better horse.
I have given my reason's why I don't think SE is the superstar he is made out to be but I'm interested to hear why he is and with holes in his AIG win, I don't accept that race as a big guide to his ability when the form hasn't really subsequently stood up. Knowing he beat a half fit Osana first time up as well is not a guide getting weight. I would like to know apart from that flash of supposed brilliance one day, what in the form book makes him look so good.
I think I answered your question in the above as well Sheikh.
In regards to Gareth's comment's about how can a horse go from cantering and looking like winning the Champion and then walking across the line, be called a handicapper.
Well first of all, it's all being well saying "looking" "Cantering" and naming him the "winner" however he went from cantering to nothing, and wouldn't be the first horse to do so, he was "cantering". I for one don't feel he actually was cantering over his rivals, he has a high cruising speed which enables him to travel strongly in his races but being unable to sustain a higher speed or a progressive turn of foot lets him down. Naming any horse the "winner" except on the line is technically insulting the opposition. He may have appeared to have been travelling best at a certain point in the race but that doesn't mean he looks the winner. If you stop most races 2 out say and pick the horse travelling best, you won't always back the winner and more times than not you will back a loser. A lot of horses which travel really well don't always pick up, some will call them ungenuine, short runners, bridle horses and names which doesn't describe them. It's all about a horses confidence. Certain horses enjoy being able to weave through horses travelling easily and being produced where it matters because when they have to be worked they either can't quicken or they won't quicken. Another aspect is some horses have only one speed, a lack of a turn of foot (maybe have a short extra burst of speed) which will see a horse travel easily in a race but not do a lot once driven, in a strongly run race these types of horses are suited. They are not ungenuine, they are just different traits the horses have.
My regards to call him a handicapper Gareth is simple, as that is the level I see him at, I think even off high weights in feature handicaps he would perform better than against Grade 1 animals. You said something I feel pretty strongly about as well, you named the top of the hill at Cheltenham, all of 4f from the finish line. Why should the horse going best there, be the best in your race, it's 75% of the race gone, stopping any race at 75% of its distance, I could ask you to name the winner, and 9/10 times I reckon you would be wrong, that's not singling out Gareth that's anyone. The walking across the line I can't explain but once his chance had gone he was dramatically eased, it wasn't as if he was scrubbed all the way to the finish, say he was driven all the way to the line he would have probably been beat 15 - 20L I reckon.
In regards to Hardy Eustace and Al Eile. I accept they are good horses but neither of them are ever going to win another Champion Hurdle and to be frank neither of them possess the class nor the speed to place in one. I think Hardy Eustace is a good form guide to most races but I'm far from convinced he is a 2m any more. His defeat of Sizing Europe on SE's comeback showed he was more tuned for the day and outstayed SE however you won't see HE any better than 6th or 7th in a Champion nowadays. As for Al Eile he is a different horse over 2m 4f at Aintree than over 2m anywhere, simply outpaced behind Se in my opinion and whilst yes very good using that basis of form that, a is better than b at this trip but b is better at the next trip, than the first trip is a pretty quick way to the skint house. Al Eile has not looked a 2m for a couple of season's but his form over 2m 4f is solid at group 1 level, I wouldn't be using him as a benchmark of 2m form.
No i wasn't present to see Sizing Europe's impressive win last year but I was at Leopardstown in 2006 at the Chrismas meeting when he came swinging there 2 out against De Valira and then from the bend he failed to quicken having looked the winner at weakend. How he ran that day is exactly how he has ran the last twice.
The key point for me is this horse won a Cheltneham handicap off 137 and was raised to 143. He then won his impressive AIG, he was raised to 167. However can someone explain to me how that on all subsequent form at that trip, justified a 24lb rise. I am not suggesting he is only a 143 horse, I would accept he is somewhere between 150 and 155, which would be some 12 - 15L off Champion Hurdle class. His 8l beating by Sublimity who was beaten 4L by Katchit in March would put him 12L off last years Champion hurdle winner on collateral form, which is pretty close to how I see him. For a horse which stopped quickly at Leopardstown in many peoples view, he was headed and beaten some 1.5f from the line, however was only beat 8.75L. This to me is not a horse with a problem or an attitude problem as the actual distance beaten in regards to when he stopped looking the winner is not a big one, had he dropped 25L off I would accept a case of the above.
I just don't see this horse as a genuinely Champion Hurdle horse and none of his form except last years AIG puts him close. Could it not be question that Al Eile was actually outpaced in the AIG and Hardy just runs his race in any contest. Hardy's performance last time at Leopardstown saw him weaken turning in, he was eased late on but was around 14L off Sizing Europe, give or take 5L for him being eased, gives you around 9L, a similar distance to what he was beaten by Sizing Europe in the AIG.
It's okay saying Sizing Europe beat a solid grade 1 horse in Hardy Eustace in the AIG easily but in all Hardy Eustace's form since it can be questioned how good he actually really is ?, Brave Inca who looked in need of a run gave him a 7L beating, with the winner Catch Me far from impressive next time (maybe non stayer). The form with Sizing Europe is yet to be opened up by Jered but Hardy controlled the race that day, the 4th Won In The Dark was never travelling in that race so I'm far from convinced his improvement can be notioned that Sizing Europe is still a better horse.
I have given my reason's why I don't think SE is the superstar he is made out to be but I'm interested to hear why he is and with holes in his AIG win, I don't accept that race as a big guide to his ability when the form hasn't really subsequently stood up. Knowing he beat a half fit Osana first time up as well is not a guide getting weight. I would like to know apart from that flash of supposed brilliance one day, what in the form book makes him look so good.
I think I answered your question in the above as well Sheikh.
One other aspect, Gareth, if you believe the horse has a problem.
Then a is must be question how his trainer was blind not not consider the problem hadn't gone away when he was beaten 2.5L by Hardy this season when he already expected to be a good 8L better than that said horse, in need of a run or not. Then if there is a problem why has nothing come to light to the trainer since the last run. Looking for problems normally is done in hope there is something wrong and not in fact there is nothing wrong, if a horse has a problem it may go unnoticed once or twice, but if you believe there is a problem you get them vetted, if there is no findings then, it must be actually asked how can there be a problem.
I'm not a firm believer of times Sheikh. You may notice but in a lot of sellers, claimers and low grade races you get fast times, times display the overall time of the race, the only times are important are sectional times over the closing distances of a race 1f 2f and 4f. However since Turftrax folded there is no way of getting this data unless you watch a race and do it with your stopwatch. i do it for all horses in group one sprints and I may sit down and do it for the AIG last year compared to the last run of Sizing Europes, it may not be until the weekend when I have some time however but the results would be interesting.
Then a is must be question how his trainer was blind not not consider the problem hadn't gone away when he was beaten 2.5L by Hardy this season when he already expected to be a good 8L better than that said horse, in need of a run or not. Then if there is a problem why has nothing come to light to the trainer since the last run. Looking for problems normally is done in hope there is something wrong and not in fact there is nothing wrong, if a horse has a problem it may go unnoticed once or twice, but if you believe there is a problem you get them vetted, if there is no findings then, it must be actually asked how can there be a problem.
I'm not a firm believer of times Sheikh. You may notice but in a lot of sellers, claimers and low grade races you get fast times, times display the overall time of the race, the only times are important are sectional times over the closing distances of a race 1f 2f and 4f. However since Turftrax folded there is no way of getting this data unless you watch a race and do it with your stopwatch. i do it for all horses in group one sprints and I may sit down and do it for the AIG last year compared to the last run of Sizing Europes, it may not be until the weekend when I have some time however but the results would be interesting.
Sheikh
At the Start
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Sheikh
At the Start
As ever you make a strong case Flame. I'm not a huge time buff either but it is another indicator when watching a race as to the strength of the form. The reason I asked if you where at the race was as a work watcher yourself the impression a horse gives when it passes you tells more than all the stats put together. I don't think SE can win a champ hurdle but I believe he is a bona-fide grade 1 horse when right and I don't think he's right.... as ever time will tell.
P.s. Not sure it's a great idea to discount Al Eile as a marker for two mile form.
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Grasshopper
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Harbinger
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Flame:
Absolutely. But how many will end up being eased down so dramatically that they finish beaten 101 lengths? Are you seriously saying that Sizing Europe didn't show any sign of having a problem in the Champion Hurdle?
The point has always been that whilst these horses may not be troubling anyone in a Champion Hurdle, they've still proven themselves - before and now since - capable of good enough form that any horse gubbing them by an easy 8 lengths when they appear to have run solid races has achieved a level of form that should give them a big chance in a Champion Hurdle (particularly last season's).
I completely agree and have posted on the subject previously.
Ask Alan King the same question about My Way De Solzen - presumably he doesn't have a problem either then!
Absolutely. But how many will end up being eased down so dramatically that they finish beaten 101 lengths? Are you seriously saying that Sizing Europe didn't show any sign of having a problem in the Champion Hurdle?
The point has always been that whilst these horses may not be troubling anyone in a Champion Hurdle, they've still proven themselves - before and now since - capable of good enough form that any horse gubbing them by an easy 8 lengths when they appear to have run solid races has achieved a level of form that should give them a big chance in a Champion Hurdle (particularly last season's).
I completely agree and have posted on the subject previously.
Ask Alan King the same question about My Way De Solzen - presumably he doesn't have a problem either then!