Road To The Champion Hurdle

I would happily ask Alan King the same question, and I think he'll say there isn't a problem. I don't believe a horse will maintain a high level of ability throughout it's career. I feel My Way peaked early. Admittedly he probably is better than he is currently showing but a lot of that would be down to trying to make him a chaser which at present he doesn't seem to be enjoying one bit.

I'm not a vet and didn't check Sizing Europe after the Champion so I don't know and am not qualified to comment on whether he had a problem. But I did state earlier the jockey chose once jumping the 2nd last to ease him down as much as he did, he slowed him right off when the chance had gone, had there been a problem and the horse naturally eased right down on his own accord, I'm pretty sure he would have been pulled up. One might ask why he wasn't actually pulled up before the last when weakening very quickly. If the horse was believed to be better than this, surely the rider wouldn't have accepted his weakening so quickly and instead of making a "possibly" injured horse jump the last he would have surely pulled him up.

I agree last season's Champion hurdle was weak in all comparisons but I still maintain Al Eile isn't Champion Hurdle class and neither is Hardy Eustace, they also weren't this class last season. I don't doubt Sizing Europe could win classy races and possibly soft grade 1's in Ireland against Hardy Eustace, Beau Michel and co, but the front 3 in his last race are all better horses than him on merit. They were going better than him before he weakened in my opinion. However I don't feel Ireland have a serious contender for the Champion outside Brave Inca if they go quick enough to suit him, or Harchibald if it's quick ground.
I'm not disputing that Sizing Europe couldn't win another grade 1, what I'm disputing is he has ever been or ever will be good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. His form suggests he isn't. If Binocular has raised the bar as many expect that won't make his task any easier either.
I agree that on their day Hardy Eustace and Al Eile are solid grade 1 horses, but for me the former needs to dictate and in all honesty he ain't a glimmer of the horse he was 2 or 3 years ago. Al Eile needs 2m 4f to be seen to his best and was actually staying on well at Leopardstown last season. Over another 4f he would have thrashed Sizing Europe.

I don't like comparing form from 2m 4f to 2m, it's unrealistic.

Despite a 2nd to Harchibald at Newcastle, his 2m is ordinary. Katchit was finishing that day and wasn't suited by the race whilst the winner done well to win in conditions not ideal. The race suited Al Eile, but that form was not the same form which saw Katchit win the Champion, far from it.

He then beat Hardy Eustace a length, with Ebaziyan, Farmer Brown and Jazz Messenger not far behind. Now none of those horses have really done anything for the form, although I'll accept Jazz Messenger hasn't been given the chance to do so.

No matter how you look at Sizing Europe his form continually see's him a few lengths better than Hardy Eustace on his best form and a few lengths off him on a not so good day, the real question is, is Hardy Eustace good enough to be competitive in a Champion Hurdle any more and the answer of that question to me is no, therefore there is reason to suggest Sizing Europe is no more a Champion Hurdler than Hardy Eustace at his current stage in his career. I accept Sizing Europe will win races but he is rated wrongly by about 12lb - 17lb. Off 150 - 155 he would go very close in a top class handicap hurdle like the Totesport Trophy, that is his level in my opinion, and he is a good 10L off Champion Hurdle winning class.

I accept he is better than his run at Cheltenham but I don't accept that he is so much better he would have been in the shake up, had been okay and driven to the line I reckon he would have been 5th or 6th around the position of Straw Bear, on collateral form that would tie in with finishing positions with Farmer Brown, on form taken with Al Eile.
 
Going around in circles now. I'm frankly amazed that I still feel the need to argue why beating Hardy Eustace and Al Eile by an easy 8 lengths last January was a Champion Hurdle-class performance given what those 2 horses did prior to the race last season and subsequently. The form is there for everyone to see.
 
What has Hardy Eustace done subsequently Gareth, I just don't see it.

Also what has Al Eile done subsequently over 2m ?

Those are surely not hard to answer questions are they ?
 
Hardy Eustace proved his current capabilities by winning a Grade 1 at Punchestown 6 weeks ago. He's clearly not the force of old, but this went some way to proving that he was still a fair benchmark last January and that he hadn't given up the ghost by then.

Al Eile has only run once over hurdles since the race, when smashing up a decent field by 10 lengths in a Grade 1 at Aintree over 2 1/2 miles. Whilst clearly better over that distance, he showed his effectiveness over 2 miles immediately prior to last year's AIG by beating Hardy Eustace and Jazz Messenger in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown and, prior to that, splitting Harchibald and Katchit in a Grade 1 at Newcastle.

Edit: Why am I still pointing this out? Last year I'm told beating Al Eile and Hardy Eustace means nothing. 12 months later they've gone on to win further Grade 1s, and now I'm told that that's irrelevant. If both had flopped horribly in every race they ran since you can be damn sure that would have been used as proof that last year's AIG was worthless!
 
But the Grade 1 Hardy Eustace won, he beat Sizing Europe right, so how is that maintaining a level of form when it's considered SE has a problem.
 
That's exactly what you should expect to happen if SE has a problem, especially given how the race panned out with SE taking the lead and looking all over the winner before bottoming out very quickly.
 
Yes. No idea if it's physical or mental or a combination of the two, but on each of his last three runs when the gun has been put to his head he has weakened far too quickly for it to be just a lack of ability, IMO.
 
So at 4/1 on the 25th, just 19 days away, you must agree he rates a major lay.

If there is a natural problem, it can't be fixed in 3 weeks, surely.
 
So at 4/1 on the 25th, just 19 days away, you must agree he rates a major lay.
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We agree for completely different reasons :)

(Although I prefer to think that him being 4/1 creates value elsewhere)
 
TOSHIBA Irish Champion Hurdle

Sublimity 5/2
Sizing Europe 4/1
Jered 9/2
Harchibald 5/1
Brave Inca 8/1 (from 10/1)
Jazz Messenger 10/1
Muirhead 10/1
Won In The Dark 10/1
Ebaziyan 14/1
Hardy Eustace 14/1
Aitmatov 16/1
Beau Michael 20/1
Silent Oscar 20/1
River Liane 25/1
Larkwing 50/1
Swiftmarc 66/1
Allez Petit Luis 100/1
Oscillating Oscar 100/1

Hurricane Fly entered but not quoted
 
On the subject of Sizing Europe, David Casey was quoted at a Cheltenham preview night, the week before the Festival. I'm paraphrasing a bit, but he was riding work for HdB and said that thehorse he was on had completely cut out on him. HdB allegedly suggested that "Yeah, a lot of them are doing that lately". The original post about Casey was over on TRF (don't know if anyone recalls it) and I posted it on the Neigh forum in good faith.

Following SE's run at Cheltenham, I suggested that the "pulled back muscles" excuse offered for his run might not be entirely valid, and that if the horse had indeed run in as competitive a race as the Champion Hurdle whilst not fully fit (or under the weather), it might cause some permanent damage.

In his subsequent runs, SE has given the impression of a horse who is suffering a physical problem, rather than a lack of talent. As soon as he is asked to quicken, he finds zero. For my money, I reckon the horse may have had a problem before the Champion Hurdle, and that running in the race has exacerbated it. Certainly, the stables runners were badly out of sorts in the 4-5 weeks running up to the Festival.

I'm not suggesting that HdB knew for sure that the horse wasn't right prior to the Champion Hurdle, but a small stable must have felt a good deal of pressure to allow the favourite to take his chance in the race. And to be fair, unless they were able to identify something for certain, they were probably entitled to let him run.

I don't claim any of the above as a definitive assessment of why SE continues to run disappointingly - I merely posit is as my theory as to what might be the root of the problem.
 
Grasshopper said:
On the subject of Sizing Europe, David Casey was quoted at a Cheltenham preview night, the week before the Festival. I'm paraphrasing a bit, but he was riding work for HdB and said that thehorse he was on had completely cut out on him. HdB allegedly suggested that "Yeah, a lot of them are doing that lately". The original post about Casey was over on TRF (don't know if anyone recalls it) and I posted it on the Neigh forum in good faith.
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Stop ramping yer fecking forum! :D

Seriously, I do recall that post and there have been any number of possible explanations mooted since the horse's run at Cheltenham (I was told he bled).

His run at Punchestown was encouraging in that he picked up after the second last to go clear looking the likely winner before weakening approaching the last. I was more than happy to put down to the horse needing the run, especially as he was keeping on again on the run-in.

His run at Leopardstown was massively dissapointing, on the other hand, as he simply never picked up at all. If I was being ultra-critical of McNamara, he should probably have stretched on (or at least tried to) a fraction earlier. The way the horse cut out suggests that it's probably irrelevant and he may have realized at that point that there was very little in the tank.

I don't see how anyone who has seen the Greatwood can accuse the horse of being a "bridle merchant." He has obviously proved that he was well-in that day, but Osana has also proven himself to be a quality animal and he battled on well that day in atrotious conditions.

I just can't accept the idea that the level of form he produced at Christmas was within a country mile of what he did in the Irish Champion.
 
Grasshopper said:
EC1, as soon as you can find a quote from me making any comment whatsoever on the race-pace, then you just let me know, pal.........:whistle:
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as you weren't enamoured with the form I assumed you thought it were no good due to the slow pace that most have assumed

to me..I can be persuaded it weren't fast...which means both horses that finisished close are in good nick..they must be with the final time displayed...so...either Sublimity or Won In The Dark will win the Irish CH..I would rather plump for Won In The Dark at the odds.

The fact that a mule like Sizing Europe is 4/1 tells me the race won't take much winning
 
Desperate forcast for the week ahead...soft ground is assured for the Irish Champion next Sunday. Must be a major doubt about Jered, Harchibald, Sublimity etc taking part.
 
Meade confirms that Jered and Harchibald are both likely to miss Sunday's race with due to the likely ground with Muirhead being the stable rep.
 
With the ground and likely pacemakers going to ensure a serious test of stamina, conditions could see Brave Inca run a very big race indeed.
 
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