Road To The Champion Hurdle

Sunybay - How did Celestial Halo's performance today affect your view of him for the Champion Hurdle?

BlueSq are holding their 12/1.
 
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I thought Osana ran a fine Champion Hurdle trial. He will reverse form with Celestial Halo in March....indeed the Nicholls horse will be doing well to place in that race. I cannot understand how he was cut for the Champion off the back of that run. 4lbs worse off and Osana will actually be asked for everything.

People say Celestial Halo is better at Cheltenham....its not as if his Triumph Hurdle form is that outstanding. Horse needs 2m4f to 3 miles already. Wrong wrong race for him.
 
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I'm not really sure why Celestial Halo's 2nd in the rearranged Bula was so highly rated anyway. As far as I was concerned, he had the run of the race from the front (although he did set a strong gallop) and was brushed aside by Binocular. The other 3 runners all disappointed.

I'll stick to my view that Sublimity should be 2nd in, although I thought Osana ran a really nice race today.
 
Champion Hurdle going since Claisse was appointed:

2008 G/S
2007 Soft
2006 G/S
2005 Good
2004 Good
2003 Good
2002 G/S

Not quite as soft as I expected.
 
betsmate said:
Champion Hurdle going since Claisse was appointed:

2008 G/S
2007 Soft
2006 G/S
2005 Good
2004 Good
2003 Good
2002 G/S

Not quite as soft as I expected.
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A bug bare of mine, but one which has definately helped me over the years, as Claisse is a speed raters dream given that he routinely gives out misleading going and allows those of us who use the horse to tell us what the going is to bet against the declared going :p

2008 = -6.05 (Soft to Heavy; but more likely to be soft given that times were badly affected by the wind)

2007 = -0.01 (Good; MWDS broke standard that day by 0.30 secs on soft ground.... Yeah right)

2006 = +1.21 (Good; Brave Inca broke standard by 2.00 secs on Good to Soft)

2005 = +1.35 (Good; no disagreement but slightly on the faster side)

2004 = -0.01 (Good; no disagreement)

2003 = -1.09 (Good; no disagreement but slightly on the slower side)

2002 = +1.06 (Good; Moscow Flyer beat standard by 1.50 seconds on alleged G/S - not impossible, but very unlikely)

What it points to according to my limited figures is that he invariably turns up good ground, and in a couple of cases pretty well spot on, but declares ground to be softer than it is. He's declared ground softer than good on 4 of the 7 occasions, yet I reckon 6 out of 7 fall within what I think is the spread for Good (about +1.75 to -1.50). The fastest ground I've got a record for on the Tuesday was 2000 BC (before Claisse) which came out at +4.07 which I'd normally call Firm. Saulsilito Bay (+0.60), Tuitchev (+5.60) Istabraq (+3.90) Marlborough (+5.30) and Rhuhabuish (+2.60) all beat standard and even Honey Mount only missed out by -2.60 secs
 
Grasshopper said:
And it most certainly wasn't Soft in 2007.

Claisse is a fucking bumpkin.
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Yep, probably the worst of the lot. MWDS ran fast by +0.30 secs which you just can't do on soft ground. To give this context, this performance (without any track variance corrections) was faster than the official good ground winners of;

Contraband 1.40 secs slower (about 7L's)
Well Chief 2.20 secs slower (about 11L's)
Azertyuiop 2.65 secs slower (about 13.25L's)

Indeed on alleged Soft ground MWDS also beat Tidal Bay by 11.70 secs, VPU by 0.60 secs, Flagship Uberalles by 6.50 secs, Champleve by 3.40 secs, Or Royal by 0.80 secs, and Ventana Canyon by 8.70 secs. Only Moscow Flyer (by 1.20 secs), and Tuitchev on ground which was unreasonably fast, won in a faster time. There is no way (unless MWDS is some kind of wonder horse) that this could have happened on soft
 
I backed Osana for the Champion Hdl 11/1

I think he has similar form to Binocular and will be better suited by the course.
 
I dont think Celestial Halo needs 2m4 to 3m, he clearly didnt yesterday. If the champion hurdle is the wrong race for him that is more to do with the opposition involved than the distance. He and Osana went hard for home from a long way out yesterday, kicking for home coming out of the back is almost always too soon at Sandown, its a long way to two out. Afsoun was soon in trouble and yet he had almost caught them again at the line when Osana and Celestial Halo were both slowing considerably. I think Celestial Halo would have won the Irish Champion last week.
 
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of course , I also think Celestial Halo or Osana on yesterdays form would have won the irish grade 1.
 
I was more impressed by Osana too and at 11/1 he's a good each way bet. Don't think anything would have beaten Brave Inca at Leopardstown though. He wasn't even breathing hard after the race.
 
I agree with Sheikh - Suny you were there, do you really think those two would have acted on the ground as Inca did, after that dreadful downpour? I don't!
 
I think Osana posted yesterday something like a 9 pounds better performance than Brave Inca did last week,
Osana better in firmer ground than the heavy he would have found in Ireland
 
Is Jered a likely runner in the Champion Hurdle?

I have revised my opinion of him, and in a very weak year, his BF odds of 28 are tempting considering what's in front of him and the possibility of genuine good to soft ground.
 
Hamm said:
Is Jered a likely runner in the Champion Hurdle?

I have revised my opinion of him, and in a very weak year, his BF odds of 28 are tempting considering what's in front of him and the possibility of genuine good to soft ground.
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Last I heard he was intended... but that was some time ago.

Meanwhile Binocular appears to have pleased connections in his blow out at Kempton this morning.
 
Jered was liberally scattered through my TTF lists at the beginning of the season, so I'm quite keen to see him return to action. I'm not adding him to any list though.
 
Andy said:
Harchibald for me. he may be another Sea Pigeon and will come good
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Good luck Andy. You must be very long-suffering, this horse drives me mad. Couldn't back it with stolen money... as they say. Nevertheless I sort of know what you mean.
 
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SteveM said:
Jered was liberally scattered through my TTF lists at the beginning of the season, so I'm quite keen to see him return to action. I'm not adding him to any list though.
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Working really nicely the last couple of weeks. Not a quick enough jumper to win a Champion though IMO.
 
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