Road to the Gold Cup 2011

Personally I think it's probably between the big three and if anything they look overpriced in the anti post market (though injury and non-participation is factored in somewhere by the bookies I would think).

However time does matter. IP was beaten 64 lengths in the KG and won the GC 3 months later by 7 lengths. It's still open in terms of how the picture will change between now and March imo.
 
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martin said:
Personally I think it's probably between the big three and if anything they look overpriced in the anti post market (though injury and non-particiaption is factored in somewhere by the bookies I would think).
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Fair point as it stands - the big 3 take out just 46% of the total market in the GC, which is surprisingly low. My natural inclination would be to try to take them on, but I really doubt whether the ubiquitous "field" should be odds-on. Not that I'd be anywhere near as bullish as Steve, but imagine if you were given a match bet to price up - Big 3 v Field, what would your odds be?
 
rorydelargy said:
Fair point as it stands - the big 3 take out just 46% of the total market in the GC, which is surprisingly low. My natural inclination would be to try to take them on, but I really doubt whether the ubiquitous "field" should be odds-on. Not that I'd be anywhere near as bullish as Steve, but imagine if you were given a match bet to price up - Big 3 v Field, what would your odds be?
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4/7 the big three would be the biggest Id be prepared to contemplate laying!!
 
Urm, I know you have experience in these areas Rory which I probably do not; I'd make a match bet, front three v's the rest, from how I view the race at the moment, something like 2/7 - 3/1.
 
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Kauto cannot win the Gold Cup in my opinion -he will be running in the race for the fifth time and has been on the road for a long time.For that reason I have to be against him in a big way at Kempton.
 
martin said:
Urm, I know you have experience in these areas Rory which I probably do not; I'd make a match bet, front three v's the rest, from the market I can see at the moment, something like 2/7 - 3/1.
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How much would you be willing to lay at 3/1.
 
I don't see where the opposition is at the moment Luke.

Sizing Europe I love but I honestly don't think he'll stay 27F.

Punchestowns based on the festival gone won't win the GC.

The 3/1 is based on there only really being two dangers for me at present, Burton Port (16/1) and Diamond Harry (14/1).

Horses like Planet Of Sound, Long Run, maybe even horses like Carruthers could run big races and get placed, but winning it I just don't see.
 
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Imperial Commander -worthy favourite,Denman should run his race and will be hard to keep out of the places,Kauto is vulnerable.
Going 5/1 each of 3 makes it an even money shot that one of them wins.
 
LUKE said:
Imperial Commander -worthy favourite,Denman should run his race and will be hard to keep out of the places,Kauto is vulnerable.
Going 5/1 each of 3 makes it an even money shot that one of them wins.
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At current LAdbrokes odds the only one I am aware of NRNB at the moment the big three are IC 4/1,KS 9/2 and Denman 7/1 your return overall for an even stake is as follows. IC wins overall return is 4/6 for your total stakes on all three, Kauto 5/6 and Denman 5/3.
 
On The Bridle said:
At current LAdbrokes odds the only one I am aware of NRNB at the moment the big three are IC 4/1,KS 9/2 and Denman 7/1 your return overall for an even stake is as follows. IC wins overall return is 4/6 for your total stakes on all three, Kauto 5/6 and Denman 5/3.
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Almost exactly Evens the 3 coupled at Ladbrokes prices.
 
If Denman were to be out for the season tomorrow what price would the other two be coupled though, both for someone who backed the three coupled tonight at evens and for those who wanted to back Kauto and Imperial coupled after Denman's out? Sorry for the questions (not rhetorical!).:confused:
 
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martin said:
I don't see where the opposition is at the moment Luke.

Sizing Europe I love but I honestly don't think he'll stay 27F.

Punchestowns based on the festival gone won't win the GC.

The 3/1 is based on there only really being two dangers for me at present, Burton Port (16/1) and Diamond Harry (14/1).
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I think that's too early a dismissal of Punchestowns. This is the only horse who's ever made Big Bucks pull out all the stops over hurdles and he looks like a chaser. Bit worried about the weather though as he needs more experience.Cooldine comes into it if we accept that he was never right last year (he certainly did not settle in the Gold Cup)
Burton Port is interesting but he only seems to get going when the winner has flown. He looks the type to run on into a place at best to me.
If Tidal Bay lines up and he's still 50s+ I'd probably have a bit on. If he jumps like he did in his Arkle and stays on like he did at Haydock he'd nearly win the thing.
 
Tidal Bay on his very best going day when the moons are aligned, the grass is forward rolled, the sun is on his back,high tide etc etc etc could seriously trouble the big three - but could you risk some of your hard earned on him??? Mr Mordin was very sweet on him for the stayers last year (one of the very few losers he fancied at last years festival) and still believes there is a big race in him.
 
Bar was pointing out that 11yos have a poor record in the Gold Cup I think - merely observing that Kauto is a horse who breaks records Steve :)
 
LUKE said:
2/1 Denman & Imperial coupled -seems a fair bet to me NRNB.
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I've so far taken 12/1 on Denman (all in), with a saver on IC at 4s (NRNB).

I'd consider backing Kauto on the day (although I'm a little sceptical as to his chances) or perhaps one of the others such as Punchestowns (if he shapes up)... I can't see that anything else has a prayer right now and unless anything comes out of the woodwork in the next three months, I'm happy with the position I've got, which I'll be topping up.
 
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