Road to the Gold Cup 2011

The ground on the chase course was riding fast - the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual over 2m 1/2f was run 2secs faster than the Queen Mother Champion Chase over 1/2f shorter - I know they were on different courses but it puts into perspective the time of the Gold Cup - and timeform love a fast time but are often blinkered by it. I can accept What A Friend has run the best race of his life on ground he likes but I can't have it he's improved a stone - If anyone believes he has then the way he finished in the G.C. you better lump on him e/way in the National before the 16/1 disappears as he's never lost in April - I've had a couple of sheckels e/way just in case I'm wrong - but 5-7lb improvement is more realistic.
 
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Regarding the Timeform ratings being discussed, Long Run's bare form for winning the Gold Cup was rated 177, giving a 7 lb beating to Denman. Denman earned a figure of 177 in the Hennessy, so Long Run's master rating is tied in with that, so on their master ratings Long Run (184) is represented with a figure to make him 7 lb superior to Denman (177). I understand not everyone will think that is the right thing to do, but our handicapper has taken the view that Long Run showed in the Gold Cup that he's a 7lb better horse than Denman at present, and the master ratings reflect that. What A Friend's figure was raised from 160 to 168.
 
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davidjohnson said:
Regarding the Timeform ratings being discussed, Long Run's bare form for winning the Gold Cup was rated 177, giving a 7 lb beating to Denman. Denman earned a figure of 177 in the Hennessy, so Long Run's master rating is tied in with that, so on their master ratings Long Run (184) is represented with a figure to make him 7 lb superior to Denman (177). I understand not everyone will think that is the right thing to do, but our handicapper has taken the view that Long Run showed in the Gold Cup that he's a 7lb better horse than Denman at present, and the master ratings reflect that. What A Friend's figure was raised from 160 to 168.
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Thanks for explaining that David and I do accept Denman's rating for the Hennessy and I do accept Long Run is a 7lb better horse than Denman at this moment in time but I don't accept Denman or Long Run ran to those marks in the Gold Cup.

Do the master ratings represent a horses best performance for that season?
 
SteveM said:
Although Long Run's Official Rating is on 179 and his RPR 183. Against Denman's best OR of 182 and RPR of 184.

As suny says, I would doubt that Long Run has run better than Denman in his prime, i.e. his Gold Cup or second Hennessy,for example.
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Further to this: Long Run's OR has now been bumped up to 182 from 179.
 
Bar the Bull said:
As a man who never backed Denman and who backed LR on Friday, I would agree with that.

Is there any chance that 184 includes the 5lb for Waley Cohen added back on? It seems insanely high.
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Not the case (although it does seem out by about that amount). Long Run carried the same as the others in the Gold Cup. Amateur Riders can claim in Handicaps and Selling races confined to Amateur Riders and all WFA races bar Classes A and B (depending on how many races they have won).
 
Long Run looks awfully short for next year's race. I've backed Somersby already and may have a couple more before the summer is out.
 
Euronymous said:
Long Run looks awfully short for next year's race. I've backed Somersby already and may have a couple more before the summer is out.
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I should have followed my own advice and looked for a price before the race. I expected Long Run to run well, but was looking to Denman to beat him.
 
swedish chef said:
Thanks for explaining that David and I do accept Denman's rating for the Hennessy and I do accept Long Run is a 7lb better horse than Denman at this moment in time but I don't accept Denman or Long Run ran to those marks in the Gold Cup.

Do the master ratings represent a horses best performance for that season?
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Not necessarily, the master rating is based on the most recent piece of form the handicapper thinks is most relevant. In the case of the first 3 from the Gold Cup, it is their best effort this season. Example on Flat, Goldikova is still rated 133 despite the fact she's not run to that since 2009.
 
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