We are lone voices Bar!
Road to the Gold Cup 2011
- Thread starter Euronymous
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We are lone voices Bar!
Miss Nero
At the Start
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- Nov 22, 2008
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Diamond Harry has already beaten Denman. I'm not one who thinks Denman will automatically turn things around on level weights. It doesn't always work that way. We don't know how much further improvement is in DH, and also, I wouldn't be putting my money on Denman running to the rating some seem to think he will. Like I said, he's been beaten four times in a row now.
What I'm also failing to understand is why there are quite a few people who seem to assume that Denman will overturn last year's GC run with Imperial Commander. Why should he?
As for IC himself, his record at Cheltenham is excellent and he could be going there fresh but I don't view him as unbeatable either.
I wouldn't rule out Sizing Europe either. He was beaten fair and square by KS last time but I still think he's unexposed over staying trips and Cheltenham is another day.
For me this comes down to whether the 'big three' are certain to run to ratings which the others can't match, and I don't believe that's a given. That's all I was saying. It would be silly for other connections to think they've got no chance. This is the Gold Cup, and I think plenty will want to give it a try.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Well said.
What hype? he ran to his typical mark a little below his best and was beaten by two horses (apparently considered to be Gold Cup hopes) getting the best part of two stone each from Denman.
It should be pretty obvious that it is a straightforward task for him to reverse form with these in the Gold Cup, even allowing for further improvement on the improvement already made by these two this season.
Simply asking who you would take to get the better of the three. I cannot see any way that Sizing Europe or Diamond Harry would be up to it and can't see too many others that would be up to it either. The gap is so much bigger this season than it normally is. I quite like Punchestowns (who may be next best), but really he's quite a way off.
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Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
I hope you're right Steve but on the basis of his recent record (ie. 1 win in 9 attempts since his Gold Cup) and only two wins in Grade 1's in his career I'd say that his best chances of winning are when giving weight away in handicaps.
Miss Nero
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Okay. You can't. I perhaps can. I haven't said that any of 'the three' can't win it, just that I believe something besides those three could.
I'm not sure how wide the gap actually is, for reasons I've mentioned.
It’s what he’s capable of in his next race that counts and in the Gold Cup it looks safe to predict that it will be in the 180s. Only Imperial Call or Kauto can go with this(and I’ve issues with Kauto in the Gold Cup)… so the question is unless Imperial Commander beats him again what does.
You have three horses all capable of running 180+ on a pretty consistent and regular basis on the big occasion. Kauto is even higher at Kempton, but about the same as the other two at Cheltenham.
Against these the best are horses that have improved to just about break 170 (at best) and would have to improve almost another stone or more (depending on the individual) to stand a chance of winning. It’s very unlikely that any of the also-rans will beat all three of them and unlikely that many will even try.
You have three horses all capable of running 180+ on a pretty consistent and regular basis on the big occasion. Kauto is even higher at Kempton, but about the same as the other two at Cheltenham.
Against these the best are horses that have improved to just about break 170 (at best) and would have to improve almost another stone or more (depending on the individual) to stand a chance of winning. It’s very unlikely that any of the also-rans will beat all three of them and unlikely that many will even try.
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Okay if you are putting up Sizing Europe or Diamond Harry to beat the three of them good luck to you. I can see no way in the world this could happen this season in the Gold Cup.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Your hype. Those horses didn't just beat him, they hammered him by 15l.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Denman started his Gold Cup year winning the Hennessy off 161, and improved to win the Gold Cup.
Diamond Harry (who I am not a particular fan of) has just won the Hennessy off 156; on paper he has every chance of winning a Gold Cup, particularly with no 8yo Kauto in the lineup.
Diamond Harry (who I am not a particular fan of) has just won the Hennessy off 156; on paper he has every chance of winning a Gold Cup, particularly with no 8yo Kauto in the lineup.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
First of all I would point out that Diamond Harry and Denman are both better than the bare result of the race suggests as they were at or towards the front in quite a fast run race.
And Denman beat animals in The Tother One and Niche Market who are late 140s/early 150s creatures giving them 31lbs.
Diamond Harry and Burton Port have both been given ratings of 165 by Timeform. Those are two high class animals.
I'm somewhere in the middle (but closer to Steve's point of view) regarding Denman.
He can clearly carry weight better than the average horse, so allowing for a simple pounds per length analysis will lead to unreliable predictions of what can happen off level weights in a gold cup. Saying that, very few horses can run like he can at Cheltenham, and there is little evidence he is on the downgrade, and must have every chance of being place at least.
I think Imperial Commander will take all the beating (saying that, a part of me finds it hard to look at him as a dual Gold Cup winner but there you go), and Punchestowns is one I really really like and see progressing well - current odds have to be taken.
Sizing Europe would need to start a fence ahead.
He can clearly carry weight better than the average horse, so allowing for a simple pounds per length analysis will lead to unreliable predictions of what can happen off level weights in a gold cup. Saying that, very few horses can run like he can at Cheltenham, and there is little evidence he is on the downgrade, and must have every chance of being place at least.
I think Imperial Commander will take all the beating (saying that, a part of me finds it hard to look at him as a dual Gold Cup winner but there you go), and Punchestowns is one I really really like and see progressing well - current odds have to be taken.
Sizing Europe would need to start a fence ahead.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Absolutely, but will a hard slog at Cheltenham suit him? I'm a massive fan of the horse but he doesn't interest me for the race. I'd sooner have Burton Port each way.
Miss Nero
At the Start
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I haven't 'put them up' as such. But Diamond Harry won very well indeed at Newbury, and I don't think he has that big a jump to make.
This is clearly a circular argument, as most often are, and if the top three run to or somewhere near their best, then yes, there's a very good chance they'll finish first, second and third.
If.
Denman has only won one of his last eight races, and though he's run well in defeat, I honestly don't find it a stretch to think that something like Diamond Harry could improve past him.
KS is different. He's continued to win at the top level when standing up, but after that fall, I couldn't back him either.
Which leaves IC, who I thought won well this year and has a solid chance of doing so again. I can't bring myself to back him, though.
But how am I hyping him? I said as much myself straight after the race. But this still puts him the best part of a stone superior.
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Seems I have misunderstood you. You said you wouldn't be afraid of taking them on. I asked what with. It appears you are now reluctant to take them on with anything. This is what the opposition to them will also be thinking, which is why I reckon it won't be a big field.
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In a normal year perhaps. In a year with three 180+ performers in the field it would be highly improbable.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I don't really believe this but:
In a year with two ex-180+ performers in the field and one inconsistent enigma.
But I do believe this:
Kauto and Denman have a lot of miles (and injuries) on the clock. Last winner of the Gold Cup aged 11 or over?
What A Myth in 1969 (aged 12)
In a year with two ex-180+ performers in the field and one inconsistent enigma.
But I do believe this:
Kauto and Denman have a lot of miles (and injuries) on the clock. Last winner of the Gold Cup aged 11 or over?
What A Myth in 1969 (aged 12)
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I agree.
Denman - a good place bet
Kauto - a good place lay
Imperial C - most likely winner
Punchestowns - dark horse
Diamond Harry - better suited to flat tracks; quality questions
Burton Port - not a bad place bet
Cooldine - would have an outside chance if Mullins was ever capable of getting one of his good horses on the track in the first half of the year
Denman - a good place bet
Kauto - a good place lay
Imperial C - most likely winner
Punchestowns - dark horse
Diamond Harry - better suited to flat tracks; quality questions
Burton Port - not a bad place bet
Cooldine - would have an outside chance if Mullins was ever capable of getting one of his good horses on the track in the first half of the year
These are exceptional though and just the type to destroy stats (plenty win this at 10 which IC will be, and Denman/Kauto can do it at 11). None of the three are over the top at this level. I almost wish I could see something to take it from them, as it would be vaue... but I can't AND it seems no one else can either. Consequently, not hype.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
Hype
granger
Senior Jockey
I believe anyone who writes off Kauto does so at their peril
granger
Senior Jockey
Denman - a good place bet - Agreed. Hard to see him not placed
Kauto - Unless he ages like a Moscow Flyer, in with a great shout
Imperial C - most likely winner.- Agreed
Punchestowns - dark horse - Agreed
Diamond Harry - better suited to flat tracks; quality questions - Be amazed if he placed
Burton Port - Welsh national could end his season
Cooldine - Beaten by Carruthers up the hill. Hard to see him getting back anywhere near his best
Sizing Europe - Different Gravy
Miss Nero
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But it doesn't matter what I think. I'm just a punter, and not an especially good one. My original point was that I don't think other connections will be afraid to take the front three on.
Look at last year. Even on this forum, it was mostly KS v Denman arguments, then IC went and spoiled the party, and this was after Denman had won the Hennessy and KS had been sublime at Kempton.
This season, Denman has been beaten (off a higher mark yes, but still well beaten) while KS put up a decent performance at Down Royal. The King George will tell us more, but even then, it's not a given that form there will be upheld at Cheltenham.
I think connections of other horses will take the view, particularly regarding KS and Denman, that they are another year older and they're worth taking on. Now, it might prove incorrect and the young pretenders may get nowhere near them, but I don't think it will stop them from trying.
That was all I meant in my first post.