Road To the Grand National 2012

Synchronised worst round of jumping came in the Gold Cup of a somewhat crazy pace.

He's never fallen but can be a bit stuttery at his fences which can cause him to lose gound which isn't ideal.

However he's on the small side tends to go through the top of fences rather than really belt them. Jumping like that you have more chance of a stiff Kempton fence stopping you than going through the top of an Aintree fence.



I'm happy to take the chance he'll get round and if he does once he gets going nothing will live with him. He may look slow but nothing could be further than the truth.

I could see Cappa Blue going well along with According to Pete at a big price.
 
I've been backing According to Pete for some time in small amounts. Got some 80 but average 64/1. His runs at Wetherby and Haydock were impressive. Gutsy horse runs until he drops but will he go the distance? Flat track and changing going will suit. Heard positive noises last week from sources who don't normally pick up on this type of horse. Money came in this morning.
Have also backed Chicago Grey and Cappa Bleu.
 
What's the general opinion on the likely going - plenty of talk about a genuinely soft-ground National for the first time in a while, but the weather forecast looks pretty fair for Liverpool for the rest of the week.
 
I think the fact ATP tends to sit in behind the leaders will stand him in good stead Tout. Not many Nationals are won with horses coming from behind these days although Don't Push It had the class to do just that.
 
Met office forecast says showers Rory which may prevent any drying out.

It's probably better if they do get some light showers and it's genuinely soft as there's nothing worse than soft starting to dry out. It can become extremely tacky and tiring for horses.
 
I think good to soft is more likely than genuine soft ground. I think it will be stamina sapping and I can't have a horse carrying more than 11st. I like Chicago Grey, Becauseicouldntsee, Cappa Bleu and Giles Cross.
 
Does anyone think Le Beau Boi at 40/1 could be worth chancing in the hope the ground is soft.

There wont be many staying on at the end but he will be.

Has never jumped a national fence before tho is a negative.
 
I just think Swing Bill could be anything over this marathon distance. He's never fallen over fences which is a good sign. The best run was probally in the Topham last year at this meeting when finishing fifth. Unless for whatever reason he is designated a non-runner on Thursday, then he does look attractively weighted with 10:3 and worth a bob or two at huge prices on the exchanges.
 
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I reckon it will be good to soft. Any talk of heavy looks miles wide of the mark as far as I can tell. That is unless the forecast is miles wide of the mark which is no impossibility.

It's also windy which will dry it out.
 
There are heavy showers around the next few days. They're always hit and miss. But Aintree could easily get < 1mm a day for the next four days, or >10mm per day.

So on balance, it will probably be good to soft or soft. But don't be amazed if it is very testing.
 
If it's very soft I'll be looking at Skybets Market on how far Westendrocker will win by.... 33/1 for over 9 I believe..
 
The Midnight Club looked a non stayer last year but the ground was against him as well. Ruby riding another of Willie's puts me off as does his lack of form this year but he's tempting at a big price. Has the trainer got an explanation for his lack of form this year?
 
Euronymous said:
The Midnight Club looked a non stayer last year but the ground was against him as well. Ruby riding another of Willie's puts me off as does his lack of form this year but he's tempting at a big price. Has the trainer got an explanation for his lack of form this year?
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Midnight Club out I believe

Confused with Irish National apologies.
 
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Steve T said:
If it's very soft I'll be looking at Skybets Market on how far Westendrocker will win by.... 33/1 for over 9 I believe..
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If it's very soft WestEndRocker would a place lay for me given he hasn't run for over 3 months. I'd be looking to take something race fit, not just gallop fit in that scenario.
 
I've got According To Pete and Chicago Grey so far. Will probably wait until the day to add one more. I don't fancy BallaBriggs for a repeat win, and I'd be seriously impressed if Synchronised won after his GC exertions.
 
Synchronised is surely a no hoper with the conditions sure to be testing. The race has been a lot more compressed in recent years in terms of the handicap but that doesn't seem the case this year and I do believe weight will be a big factor in this going. You could probably rule out anything above 11-3 as a potential winner.
 
I backed Giles Cross at a reasonably fancy price before the Welsh Nash. He jumps well, stays and goes in soft ground. Just worried that he might lack a wee touch of class. I backed Chicago Grey yonks back, and hope they've been covering him up a touch. Quite happy to go to war with that pair, though I wouldn't be looking to write Syncronised off too quickly (though weight/soft-ground concerns are legit).
 
I wouldn't put too much faith in the forecast soft ground. Completely rain free day today, and the ground will only be perfectly good at the moment. Takes an awful lot of rain to turn the ground soft at Aintree as it drains exceptionally well.
 
I'm not convinced Giles Cross is a definite stayer as everyone thinks. He's been outstayed in the Welsh National twice and he found precious little at Haydock last time. I can see him jumping away in front but falling in a hole from the back of the last (or similar). He's a back to lay for me I think.
 
I see your point but this course is obviously a lot more like Haydock than Chepstow and he was deeply impressive there last time out. He virtually led from start to finish and they went a reasonable gallop. On ground with cut I think he has a favourite's chance. What I love about this race is the fact that the ground issue is a downer for Chicago Grey and Junior but possibly ideal for Giles Cross and one or two others I might back now (including the Midnight Club who I can see no info on regarding him being a non runner) so whatever happens one has options as a punter.
 
I just think that even at Haydock when Denis asked him to go and win his race he went from travelling well on the bridle to briefly looking in trouble. I'm not convinced he's going to find anything when push comes to shove and he won't be winning it on the bridle.

I'll admit it seems a strange thing to say about one of the apparent 'definite stayers' in the race!
 
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