Road to the Lincoln

Jim Bolger had a good horse won the first Leopardstown 2yo race years ago. Unusually for that time of the year he was relaxed, held up and sprinted past like an old hand. Can't think of the name. Googling around it may have been Mantovani (I'm limited to Sporting Life, who have forgotten him, I don't have access to the Racing Post), it may have been something else, or I might just be wrong.
 
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Melendez said:
Jim Bolger had a good horse won the first Leopardstown 2yo race years ago. Unusually for that time of the year he was relaxed, held up and sprinted past like an old hand. Can't think of the name. Googling around it may have been Mantovani (I'm limited to Sporting Life, who have forgotten him, I don't have access to the Racing Post), it may have been something else, or I might just be wrong.
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Mandalina? Won a 5f maiden at The Curragh on 25 April, 2004.
 
Runners with stall positions rather than racecourse order.

1. Penitent
2. Kaolak
3. extraterrestrial
4. full toss
5. prime exhibit
6. mias boy
7. lang shining.
8. viva vettori
9. dubais touch
10. mull of killough
11. ishetoo
12. reve de nuit
13. tiger reigns
14. smokey oakey
15. vitznau
16. collateral damage
17. harrison george
18. advanced
19. albaqaa
20. huzzah
21. mister hardy
22. doctor crane.
 
Using my just-delivered profiling book by Peter May:


  1. 4yos win 46%
  2. OR 70 - 99 win 77%
  3. weight of 8.13 to 9.07 win 72%
  4. dslr 8-60 win 74%
  5. sp 13/2 to 16/1 win 56%
  6. distance beaten last time 0 to 5 lengths win 67%
Well, that gives just none of them! However, the nearest fit is, I think:

Reve De Nuit on age, OR, weight, dslr but not distance btn lto, which is 7.25L.
Presently quoted by Ladbrokes at 50/1 .... hmm, will that come in to 16s?

If we extend the age to include 5yos, which win 19%, then Extraterrestrial & Albaqaa come into the picture ...
Extraterrestial was beaten 2.25L lto & has an OR of 100; quoted by Ladbrokes at 12/1.
Albaqaa was beaten 1L lto & has an OR of 95; also 12/1.

But, it's the Lincoln and these measures can't really apply so early in the year ... can they?
 
Knowing such things as 46% of Lincolns are won by 4yos is only half the story, though, isn't it? How many should they win?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Knowing such things as 46% of Lincolns are won by 4yos is only half the story, though, isn't it? How many should they win?
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You've got me there ...

(It's not specific to Lincolns btw: it's all-age, class 1-3 Handicaps with 15+ runners.
Oh, just seen some more stats that might be relevant .... back later!)
 
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mrussell said:
It's not specific to Lincolns btw: it's all-age, class 1-3 Handicaps with 15+ runners.
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Cool.

For the Lincoln alone, going purely by weight of numbers and simplistically assuming that every horse has an equal chance (well, it is supposed to be a handicap!), since 1988 there should have been 9.43 4yo winners. There were, in fact, 10 :)
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Cool.

For the Lincoln alone, going purely by weight of numbers and simplistically assuming that every horse has an equal chance (well, it is supposed to be a handicap!), since 1988 there should have been 9.43 4yo winners. There were, in fact, 10 :)
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That's 21 races ... about 450 runners? So, that would be about 220 4yos?
Just seeing if my brain's working .... :)
 
Not sure I can pinpoint the winner at this stage but at the prices I wouldn't be rushing to back the front two in the market. Penitent might be that listed/Group horse in a handicap but it wouldn't surprise me if his stamina gave out in the final furlong. On the other hand Mull Of Killough probably wants a little further than a mile on good ground.
 
Aside from the favourite (good call regardless of result DJ in going on about backing him at 10s), I think Huzzah may have a squeak each way. In fact, a re-production of last year's run from a lower mark may well be enough. A positive that he has run well at this time of year, fto and in the same race last year.
 
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I've had a small interest in Prime Exhibit virtually solely on the basis of the apparent strength of his Salisbury run last October. A 3lb rise for that run doesn't look overly harsh in hindsight. Looks to have scope to progress further as well.
 
Tiger Reigns back on a softer surface interests me. Middle draw might allow the jockey to pick where he goes.
 
I've backed Huzzah, and also had a little bit on Albaqaa and Harrison George - waiting to be made look stupid by the favourite!
 
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