Road To The Supreme Novice Hurdle

Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
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THE WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
3-12154 ALLY CASCADE (IRE) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE
11111 ANNIE POWER (IRE) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
BLACK SPIRIT (USA) 6 Alan Spence Nicky Henderson
240-132 BRIGHT NEW DAWN (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE
2613110 CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 5 Timeform Betfair Racing Club Ltd Gordon Elliott IRE
111-1231 CHAMPAGNE FEVER (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
1-11 CHATTERBOX (IRE) 5 The Not Afraid Partnership 2 Nicky Henderson
211/- CHELTENIAN (FR) 7 Roger Brookhouse Philip Hobbs
214-134 COURT MINSTREL (IRE) 6 Janet Davies Evan Williams
246-113 DODGING BULLETS 5 Martin Broughton & Friends Paul Nicholls
5111-1F2 DON COSSACK (GER) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
23(1) FAIR TRADE 6 Raymond Tooth Alan King
2F1 FATCATINTHEHAT 4 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
FIRE KING 7 D Steele Philip Hide
125 FLAXEN FLARE (IRE) 4 Mrs Pat Sloan Gordon Elliott IRE
FLYING CROSS (IRE) 6 Robin Geffen David Pipe
40-31101 IFANDBUTWHYNOT (IRE) 7 Claire Hollowood & Henry Dean David O'Meara
10-1P I SHOT THE SHERIFF (IRE) 6 Malcolm Denmark David Pipe
10-1111 JEZKI (IRE) 5 J P McManus Jessica Harrington IRE
14 KING OF DUDES 4 Masterson Holdings Limited Alan King
LOOKING ON 5 Irvin Naylor Venetia Williams
14 LORDOFTHEHOUSE (IRE) 5 St Albans Bloodstock LLP Tom George
12-2111 MELODIC RENDEZVOUS 7 Cash For Honours Jeremy Scott
61P1 MINELLA DEFINITELY (IRE) 6 Wellcroomed T/A eyewearoutlet.co.uk Neil Mulholland
2-1424 MINSK (IRE) 5 Barry Connell Dessie Hughes IRE
242-41133 MORNING ROYALTY (IRE) 6 Eileen Milligan James Moffatt
31114-1 MOSCOW MANNON (IRE) 7 J M Flanagan Brian Hamilton IRE
2/1213-11 MOZOLTOV 7 Martin Lynch Willie Mullins IRE
122-1211 MY TENT OR YOURS (IRE) 6 J P McManus Nicky Henderson
1120-22 NEW YEAR'S EVE 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson
630/0- OSTENTATION 6 Chris Beek Alastair Lidderdale
3-31121 PIQUE SOUS (FR) 6 Supreme Horse Racing Club Willie Mullins IRE
1-1112 PUFFIN BILLY (IRE) 5 T D J Syder Oliver Sherwood
0(3) RANSOM NOTE 6 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies
31-212 RIVER MAIGUE (IRE) 6 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
11 ROCK CRITIC (IRE) 8 Moyglare Stud Farms Ltd Dermot Weld IRE
1/410-554 ROYAL GUARDSMAN (IRE) 6 Camilla & Rosie Nock Susan Nock
3140 ROYAL ST TROP (FR) 5 Royal St Trop Association Yann Porzier FR
1211 RULE THE WORLD 6 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
(6)(1)2 SAIL BY THE SEA (IRE) 5 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe
3(1)5 SIZING SOLUTION (IRE) 5 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Jim Dreaper IRE
SSAFA 5 Chris Beek Alastair Lidderdale
STAND TO REASON (IRE) 5 Seasons Holidays Nicky Henderson
1F SWNYMOR (IRE) 4 Carl Hinchy Tim Vaughan
F5-12113 TANERKO EMERY (FR) 7 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Egan Waste Ltd David Pipe
61-1112 THE NEW ONE (IRE) 5 Mrs S Such Nigel Twiston-Davies
4R1 TSAR DES BIEFFES (FR) 6 Mrs Jean Porzier Yann Porzier FR
1-11 UN ATOUT (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
(1)4-2101 VALDEZ 6 Riverdee Stable Alan King
111/2-12F WAAHEB (USA) 6 J P McManus Dermot Weld IRE
(1)4 WARDEN HILL (IRE) 5 Camilla Radford Mick Channon
11 WHISPERING GALLERY 7 Bloomfields John Ferguson
2 ZUIDER ZEE (GER) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson

53 entries remain after February 19 scratchings deadline
18 Irish-trained
2 French-trained

THE FOLLOWING 41 HORSES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: ANONIS (GER), BILLY TWYFORD (IRE), BUTHELEZI (USA), CAYMAN ISLANDS, CHAT ROOM, CLOSE TOUCH, DUKE OF NAVAN (IRE), EDUARD (IRE),
ELECTROLYSER (IRE), FORGOTTEN VOICE (IRE), GOLDEN HOOF (IRE), IRISH SAINT (FR), KARAZHAN, KUDA HURAA (IRE), LEGAL EXIT (IRE), LIFE AND SOUL (IRE), LORD OF HOUSE (GER), MINELLA FORFITNESS (IRE), MONO MAN (IRE), MR WATSON (IRE), NED BUNTLINE, OFF THE WALL (IRE), PINE CREEK, POET, RED DEVIL BOYS (IRE), RUN WITH THE WIND (IRE), SAMETEGAL (FR), SIDNEY MELBOURNE (USA), SIR PITT, SOME ARTICLE (IRE), TED VEALE (IRE), THIMAAR (USA), THOMAS EDISON (IRE), TOO SCOOPS (IRE), UMPACT (FR), UNIQUE DE COTTE (FR), URANO (FR), UTOPIE DES BORDES (FR), VILLAGE VIC (IRE), WAYDOWNSOUTH (IRE), WINGTIPS (FR)
 
My Tent Or Yours 7/4
Jezki 4/1
Un Atout 8/1
Melodic Rendezvous 9/1
River Maigue 10/1
Dodging Bullets 12/1
The New One 14/1
Champagne Fever 16/1
Pique Sous 16/1
Puffin Billy 16/1
Bright New Dawn20/1
Cause Of Causes20/1
Chatterbox 20/1
Don Cossack 20/1
Rule The World20/1
Annie Power 25/1
Moscow Mannon 25/1
Mozoltov 25/1
Rock Critic 25/1
Waaheb 25/1
Cheltenian 25/1
33/1Bar
 
Quick question to you guys,as my now unadulterated love of horse racing didnt sprout till autumn 2010,is my tent or yours similar to the nailed on second coming that was supposedly dunguib???
 
MTOY's official rating is only marginally ahead of Dunguibs, but think there are 2 major differences between them:

MTOY earned his OR in one of the hottest handicaps of the season & not hard to rate novice hurdles
AP McCoy

Day one banker for me
 
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fonz said:
Quick question to you guys,as my now unadulterated love of horse racing didnt sprout till autumn 2010,is my tent or yours similar to the nailed on second coming that was supposedly dunguib???
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Not really. Dunguib dominated the news all winter after his Bumper demolition. He won a few decent races in Ireland and was a worthy favourite but his jumping was always a concern. If I remember right the Jock kept him wide most of the way and came in for some flack.

MTOY didn't advertise his real talent until later. He's yet to take in a grade 1 or grade 2 hurdle, whereas Dunguib had won two grade 1's.

Could end up a similar price although I'd be surprised if MTOY went odds on; unless Jezki wasn't to run.
 
MTOY didn't advertise his real talent until later. He's yet to take in a grade 1 or grade 2 hurdle, whereas Dunguib had won two grade 1's.
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with perpetual here. much rather have the performance he has produced especially since hes had the big field winning experience which can undo some novices
 
I was talking about his profile coming into the Supreme rather than his chance of winning.

I'd say MTOY has more potential as a hurdler but this is a stronger race than Dunguib's, which is why he was so short. Dunguib couldn't jump though; they should have run him on the flat. I said that all along. The clever chap at Rosewell who trained the third the day Dunguib won the bumper knew....
 
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Couldn't have MTOY as a banker though. At the prices I'd rather be with Jezki.

Would not be a surprise to see Champagne Fever run well either if he shows up.
 
Nor me mainly because I never go for Bankers at Cheltenham. Not much of a sub 2/1 punter anywhere in truth.. One of those i cnt back against him but back at the price races
 
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I usually have a couple of decent bets lined up but the weather has meant I've been a bit more circumspect this year.

Pont Alexandre is the only one at the moment and I've not had much on him yet.
 
Suppose it's how you define banker, of perhaps I should have said Nap. As long as he's odds against, will be my biggest bet on the day and will probably have quite a bearing on my weeks P&L...
 
Like a good many high ranked finishers in the Festival bumper, Dunguib simply didn't have the speed to win a Supreme. MTOY is a totally different kettle of fish, & has speed to burn.
We don't know how good Jezki is, but we do know MYOT is a truly exceptional novice, therefore J would have to be unbelievably good to master him.
Can't see AP opting for anything but the Betfair winner and, when he does, you can kiss any odds-against goodbye.
 
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Perpetual said:
MTOY's official rating is only marginally ahead of Dunguibs, but think there are 2 major differences between them:

MTOY earned his OR in one of the hottest handicaps of the season & not hard to rate novice hurdles
AP McCoy

Day one banker for me
Click to expand...

I think this is a debate that needs to be drilled down further. Dunguib had rock solid form in the book. He was the leading novice by a street and had course form with his bumper win. To me, even with hindsight, he was a fabolous bet at anything odds against. MTOY is unproven on the course and has a serious opponent in Jezki. He's a definite odds against lay. Dunguib was a better bet at 11/10 than MTOY is at 7/4.
 
SlimChance said:
I think this is a debate that needs to be drilled down further. Dunguib had rock solid form in the book. He was the leading novice by a street and had course form with his bumper win. To me, even with hindsight, he was a fabolous bet at anything odds against. MTOY is unproven on the course and has a serious opponent in Jezki. He's a definite odds against lay. Dunguib was a better bet at 11/10 than MTOY is at 7/4.
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You must think he is bound to lose if you think Dunguib was a better bet - GMOOH and Menorah had better form than Dunguib's egg and spoon Irish Grade 1s /
 
reet hard said:
Like a good many high ranked finishers in the Festival bumper, Dunguib simply didn't have the speed to win a Supreme. MTOY is a totally different kettle of fish, & has speed to burn.
We don't know how good Jezki is, but we do know MYOT is a truly exceptional novice, therefore J would have to be unbelievably good to master him.
Can't see AP opting for anything but the Betfair winner and, when he does, you can kiss any odds-against goodbye.
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I can't remember a supreme with an odds on to start the festival, surely not?
 
My word, if Jekzi drifts anything close to 5/1 it's the free bet of the century - you can have a fortune on each way and he won't be out of the three. Appreciate how a horse who runs in a handicap can be rated so highly but he can be outdone by a genuine Grade One horse. Super renewal either way.
 
Maybe we are getting a bit carried away with MTOY's win in the Betfair Hurdle. Listening to Nicky Henderson he sees this as a huge step up in class and he may well be right.

The 3 previous winners Get me Out Of Here, Recession Proof and Zarkandar are all decent but GMOOH hasn't exactly set the word on fire since, RP Failed to shine in the Supreme and Zarkandar flopped badly in the Champion Hurdle so his concerns may be well founded.

He may well be something really special but way too often horses come up with these outstanding performances and fool us into thinking they're much better than we think.

I can see the bookies being out to get him on the day and him drifting and the JP millions staying firmly in his pocket. I imagine he'll be more interested to find out if he has a future Champion Hurdle horse on his hands than having a punt. If he does have a budding champion I doubt if he gives a hoot which one it turns out to be.
 
Tanlic said:
Maybe we are getting a bit carried away with MTOY's win in the Betfair Hurdle. Listening to Nicky Henderson he sees this as a huge step up in class and he may well be right.

The 3 previous winners Get me Out Of Here, Recession Proof and Zarkandar are all decent but GMOOH hasn't exactly set the word on fire since, RP Failed to shine in the Supreme and Zarkandar flopped badly in the Champion Hurdle so his concerns may be well founded.

He may well be something really special but way too often horses come up with these outstanding performances and fool us into thinking they're much better than we think.

I can see the bookies being out to get him on the day and him drifting and the JP millions staying firmly in his pocket. I imagine he'll be more interested to find out if he has a future Champion Hurdle horse on his hands than having a punt. If he does have a budding champion I doubt if he gives a hoot which one it turns out to be.
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GMOOH went extremely close in the Supreme and ran off a much lower mark in the Betfair did he not ?
 
Even if you mark MTOY's official rating down by 10lbs, he still has suifficiently good form to win a decent renewal of the Supreme. He is vastly more proven - in terms of the level he is at - going into the race than Dunguib was.
 
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