Road To The Supreme Novice Hurdle

dunguib (whoever they were going to let ride him) like cue card should have run in the neptune as opposed to the supreme they were never likely to have the pace for the supreme.

champagne fever is another horse that should be bypassing the supreme for the neptune

horses that finish out the frame in the cheltenham bumper have as good or better record in this race than winners so jezki cant be discounted because of last years run

make a stand went one better after his tote win and won the champion

darlan would have at least finsihed 2nd if not falling in the tote and finished 2nd in the supreme

gmoh won the tote and finished a neck 2nd to menorah who had the fasted top speed for any novice that season

the betfair trophy is an ideal pointer to success in this race much better than small field soft ground graded races
 
Ardross said:
You must think he is bound to lose if you think Dunguib was a better bet - GMOOH and Menorah had better form than Dunguib's egg and spoon Irish Grade 1s /
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Oh that old chestnut. All Irish races are egg and spoon or tin pot races. Dunguib's form was bomb proof. And the Irish egg and spoon novice form regularly runs over the UK novice form.
 
I'm not in a position to research it at the moment, but has any Supreme winner ever emerged from the race with a higher OR than MTOY has going into the race?
 
SlimChance said:
Oh that old chestnut. All Irish races are egg and spoon or tin pot races. Dunguib's form was bomb proof. And the Irish egg and spoon novice form regularly runs over the UK novice form.
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i agree with the general outline of this except the statement dunguibs form was bomb proof it may have been if he had gone for the neptune but he wasnt suited in the first place to the supreme.
 
prince regent said:
i agree with the general outline of this except the statement dunguibs form was bomb proof it may have been if he had gone for the neptune but he wasnt suited in the first place to the supreme.
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That was an unknown factor but MTOY has a similar chink. Will he settle? What will he find off the bridle? On my numbers 11/10 Dungiib was a positive equity bet. I'm not so sure with MTOY with Jezki and others in the field.

I'm assuming he'll be 6/4 the night before the race btw.
.l
 
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Euronymous said:
Exactly. And I don't think Recession Proof has run since the Supreme. Straw clutching imo.
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Not clutching at straws at all I'm simply pointing out that none of them mentioned have reached Superstar status which far too many claim this horse has done already.

I'm not going to get into along winded argument about it as he has every right to be favourite for the Supreme but he has a chink in his armour that could be his downfall. When he comes off the bridle he doesn't find a lot as we have seen 3 times in his career to date. Maybe he's over that and it was due to greeness and ground but you simply can't be sure.

He has bags of speed and which could enable AP to skip clear of them before the home turn but if he comes to the last and there's something there with him like Jezki for example you better be pressing that lay button because if he failed to find on a course like Aintree there's every chance he'll find even less when he hits that hill.
 
Fair points. When he emptied on his second run this season I was amazed. It couldn't have been completely down to the ground. He's a negative equity bet at 6/4.
 
His second outing was the one that kept him under the radar for the Betfair, though if the silks are looking, it's my belief that he ran on his merits that day.

:ninja:
 
bigfow said:
I would imagine only golden cygnet, but not sure.
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I don't think ORs existed as such in his day. Most ratings quoted from that era and earlier would probably be Timeform ratings but even allowing for the average 5lbs or so difference between Timeform's marks and others' it seems if MTOY's OR - if accurate - makes it highly unlikely that he will be beaten.

The only thing that concerns me is that the ratings of juveniles (I know he isn't one) seem to have crept up since round about the time Katarino came on the scene. I recall backing it confidently a couple of times from 10/1 down because my figure for it was higher than any previous winner I'd rated with the possible exception of (I think) Oh So Risky. But since then, quite a few have gone into the race with higher ratings than Katarino and not been good enough.

I just wonder if the older novices are generally rated higher these days too.

Dodging Bullets strikes me as still being under the radar a wee bit for this race. I think it may have been plotted up all year for it. Had he won the Triumph last year he'd probably have been targeted at the Champion this year and would probably only have ended up elsewhere if he wasn't looking good enough. I doubt, though, connections imagined something like MTOY emerging.
 
Cracking discussion guys,thouroughly enjoyed reading all the replies.its been an education in itself joining this forum!!
 
slim in the race you refer to, he was on heavy ground held up in the rear whereas in his last 2 races which were on soft ground he was held up in touch/midfield so i would suggest he was given to much to do on ground he didnt like. and the winner is not a bad horse anyway (seemed suited by conditions)
the faster pace should help him to settle

in his loss to the new one at aintree despite hanging left which was probably inexperience he was giving the winner 6lb and only went down by 1.25 lenghts
 
prince regent said:
slim in the race you refer to, he was on heavy ground held up in the rear whereas in his last 2 races which were on soft ground he was held up in touch/midfield so i would suggest he was given to much to do on ground he didnt like. and the winner is not a bad horse anyway (seemed suited by conditions)
the faster pace should help him to settle

in his loss to the new one at aintree despite hanging left which was probably inexperience he was giving the winner 6lb and only went down by 1.25 lenghts
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I can't have that. It was a two horse race on paper and he had absolutley no excuse. He has questions to answer.
 
prince regent said:
slim in the race you refer to, he was on heavy ground held up in the rear whereas in his last 2 races which were on soft ground he was held up in touch/midfield so i would suggest he was given to much to do on ground he didnt like. and the winner is not a bad horse anyway (seemed suited by conditions)
the faster pace should help him to settle

in his loss to the new one at aintree despite hanging left which was probably inexperience he was giving the winner 6lb and only went down by 1.25 lenghts
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It was a bog and they very nearly pulled him out - he was held up out the back and Chatterbox kicked and he had too much to do . Not AP's finest hour .

AP pointed out though that he was trying to settle him better - but realised that although he tanks along he still finds as Ascot, Huntingdon and Newbury have shown .

He isn't a certainty- who knows what the race might have taken out of him . Jezki's form looks better than Dunguib to me and he certainly jumps better - but if MTOY reproduces his Betfair Hurdle run - Jezki or any other horse that beats him will need to be Golden Cygnet!
 
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I really don't understand the Dunguib bashing. Before the Supreme there was no holes in his form. I find it ridiculous who clever lads are retrospectively. At 11/10 Dunguib was one of the best bets of all time.
 
Slim
There were no holes in his form simply because he'd never run in a 2m hurdle on anything like decent ground. At least 2 subsequent efforts showed he hadn't the speed for it, and - quite clearly, in hindsight - he wasn't nearly the bet you'd thought him to be.
Regarding MTOY not finding, the one backhand flick he received behind Chatterbox didn't even constitute a question, let alone provide the answer you've seen fit to read into it.
 
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Actually prior to the Supreme it's easy to look back and say he was beating nothing which makes it easy to say Jezki's form is better but whether you will be able to say that in a year from now is an entirely different matter.

However Dunguib's run in the Supreme leaves what Jezki has done up to now for dead. The horse was the real deal, should have won and had they not gone round Cheltenham High St he would have. They were far too concerned about him making a mistake to ride him like a proper horse. Even at the top of the hill when he had every chance to cut inside and gain lengths on them his jockey kept him wide losing lengths in the progress.

I know when I look back at Dunguib he looked different gravy to Jezki and most people thought the same and that's why he was one of the shortest priced fav ever to run in the Supreme.

Knocking him now when things have gone wrong for him is after timing at it's worst imo.

Another thing that bother's me about My Ten Or Your and why I wouldn't be getting stuck into him is AP immediate reaction after the Betfair.

He made it perfectly clear he was not going to make a decision between him and Binocular should they both go for the Champion Hurdle. A couple of days later AP is adamant he should run in the Supreme despite the fact he could have advised them the other way and still had a favs chance by riding Jezki. So either he thinks Jeski may not be up to the task or MTOY simply isn't as good as some think.

Hard on his heels you have Nicky Henderson saying he should definitely stick to novice company but after his Binocular act on video some might ask was it a show for JP or does he really think Binocular is back to something like his old self and have more chance of winning the Champion Hurdle than MTOY.

To me it was all a bit too much and the way he skipped over Grandouet like he didn't exist after the sounds I've heard coming out of the yard just doesn't ring true.

So for thsoe who were confused beforehand you should be even more confused after reading this pile of shyte :lol:

.
 
Tanlic, I suggest you go and look again at the horses Dunguib beat in his novice hurdles in Ireland. A bigger shower of mutts you couldn't possibly hope to find. Simple fact is that it was a desperately thin year for Irish 2m novices, he beat horses who were vastly inferior in his trials (none of them ever went on to do a tap at or even anywhere near the top-level in their susbequent runs) and he wasn't properly tested over hurdles until he reached the Festival.

This isn't after-timing, it is fact - and demonstrates the inherent danger in assessing novice form either side of the Irish Sea. You can't usually tell how good it is until you get the compare-and-contrast opportunities at the Spring festivals. That said, the juveniles this season have a lot of cross-over form (for whatever reason) and it's on this basis I'd have a degree more faith in Our Conor's Triumph chance, than I would about Jezki's in the Supreme - regardless of whether MTOY was a runner in the latter or not. :cool:
 
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Tanlic said:
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He made it perfectly clear he was not going to make a decision between him and Binocular should they both go for the Champion Hurdle. A couple of days later AP is adamant he should run in the Supreme despite the fact he could have advised them the other way and still had a favs chance by riding Jezki. So either he thinks Jeski may not be up to the task or MTOY simply isn't as good as some think.
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The amount of times AP has been on the wrong JP beast I don't think it matters what he thinks. Has he even been on Jezki?
 
SlimChance said:
I really don't understand the Dunguib bashing. Before the Supreme there was no holes in his form. I find it ridiculous who clever lads are retrospectively. At 11/10 Dunguib was one of the best bets of all time.
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shame you wasnt on the forum at the time you may have seen the light:):)
 
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