Road To The Supreme Novice Hurdle

shame you wasnt on the forum at the time you may have seen the light:):)

Indeed, as i recall there were lots of doubters on here . I know I was as I backed menorah and GMOOH in the forecast and then spent much of the rest of the meeting giving my winnings back ! :ninja:
 
Indeed, as i recall there were lots of doubters on here . I know I was as I backed menorah and GMOOH in the forecast and then spent much of the rest of the meeting giving my winnings back ! :ninja:
I had one of my biggest ever cash bets on course at 10/11 so clearly was not one of them. I too spent the rest of the week handing money over, but unfortunately none of it was winnings. An expensive week
 
I'm more and more drawn to Melodic Rendezous chances at the prices. The form is working out well from the Tolworth with the only other horses to run again le reve (5th) and golden hoof (last) both winning. The beating the useful puffin Billy. More to come I think, and with the Cheltenham hill to suit.
 
Wouldn't put you off Melodic Rendevous but Puffin Billy was found to have a slight problem post race, form can't be taken at face value.
 
i think Mr is a nice horse but if the ground isnt soft he may be better off in the neptune.
i can though see him running well even if hes not good enough to win
 
Just to clear up my position:

Dunguib's form in relation to his opposition made the overnight offering of 11/10 a massive bet. It was the wrong price. He was a genuine odds on shot to beat the trees he had in opposition.

MTOY will be around 6/4 yet he faces some potentially classy opponents and the proven Grade A scorer Jezki.

The 11/10 Dunguib was a better bet than the 6/4 MTOY.
 
I believe Slim was a forum member at the time - just under a different nom-de-plume. :cool:

I agree with Slim.

To a 100% line Dunguib was probably a genuine 10/11 shot.

What say all of you is the 100% line for MTOY if nothing unexpected happens between now and the tapes going up?

I'd say he's a 5/2 chance.
 
Welcome back, Gearoid.

I note that you're talking as much sh*te as Slim does. Keep up the good work. :D
 
Yes never change the habits of a lifetime - like those "nuns" found drinking illegally .

Menorah and GMOOH were hardly trees - as the fact they outpaced Dunguib showed .

As Cue Card also demonstrated in being turned over by his bumper victim Al Ferof - just because you run off with the Bumper that doesn't make you a cert over hurdles in the Supreme .

He was always a clumsy jumper too . Now it appears he has turned into Monsignor.
 
Just to clear up my position:

Dunguib's form in relation to his opposition made the overnight offering of 11/10 a massive bet. It was the wrong price. He was a genuine odds on shot to beat the trees he had in opposition.

MTOY will be around 6/4 yet he faces some potentially classy opponents and the proven Grade A scorer Jezki.

The 11/10 Dunguib was a better bet than the 6/4 MTOY.

Let me put it this way.

His Song had much sterner tests, and had shown vastly better novice form going into the Supreme than anything Dunguib had shown.....and was still humped 7L in the Supreme.
 
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On ratings alone, MTOY already has a clearer chance than Dunguib ever did.
Still think he'll be odds-on come the day - and deservedly so.
 
I'm more and more drawn to Melodic Rendezous chances at the prices. The form is working out well from the Tolworth with the only other horses to run again le reve (5th) and golden hoof (last) both winning. The beating the useful puffin Billy. More to come I think, and with the Cheltenham hill to suit.
Only problem with that is Puffin Billy was found to have a genuine reason for losing that day. The only reason he's longer in the betting is he's unlikely to run in the Supreme, if the ground is anything like approaching decent, he'll go for the Neptune
 
Yes never change the habits of a lifetime - like those "nuns" found drinking illegally .

Menorah and GMOOH were hardly trees - as the fact they outpaced Dunguib showed .

You're slightly missing my point. I'm talking about everything we knew before the Supreme was run. It's easy say it in hindsight. I realise you and others on here were against him at the time but if I remember correctly Dunguib was clear on Timeform ratings going into the race. On paper Dinguib was an odds on shot, no doubt about it.
 
I'd like to see Chatterbox take his chance in the Supreme. Apparently Nicky Henderson does not see him as a Cheltenham horse and even though he still holds entries for the Supreme and the Neptune, it sounds as though he is going to miss Cheltenham altogether.
After his win in the Betfair novice’s hurdle, the focus was on the interference that La Fontana met with and Jonathan Neesom on Racing UK commented that Chatterbox “keeps being lucky”. But he did beat La Fontana 2 lengths easing down and giving La Fontana 16lbs.
I know the time of the race was 8.9 seconds slower than the Betfair hurdle but the early pace in the novice’s hurdle was pedestrian in comparison with the Betfair hurdle. MTOY covered the first half of the race 8 seconds faster than Chatterbox completed the first half of his race. Chatterbox is by the sire Poliglote whose progeny have quite an impressive Cheltenham record.
Spirit Son, 2nd in his only run at Cheltenham, the 2011 Supreme with the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card behind.
Lingo, an easy winner of his only race at the Cheltenham, the Greatwood hurdle over 2m½f.
Spirit River, winner of the Coral Cup and a 17f hurdle race at Cheltenham. 2 from 4 over hurdles at Cheltenham and was running a big race in last year’s Coral Cup when coming down at the last.
Far West who is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham having won two Triumph hurdle trials
Hinterland who has finished 1st , 2nd and 3rd in his 3 runs at Cheltenham, having won a Triumph hurdle trial there.
And Butlers Cabin who won a handicap chase at the Festival.
So plenty of Cheltenham and Festival form amongst his sire’s progeny and of course Poliglote is now the sire of an Arc winner.
Poliglote’s progeny appear to excel over 17 furlongs and although they have a better strike rate on soft ground, it is not much worse on good to soft or good going.
On the dam’s side, Ney Will, there is not much to go on but the 2nd dam, Gleep Will, was the dam of My Will, 5th in an Arkle and a Gold Cup and 4th in a Ryanair.
I haven’t referred yet to the hurdle race in December when Chatterbox did beat MTOY when receiving 5lbs. This race is generally written off as MTOY getting stuck in the heavy going and Chatterbox getting the run on MTOY. However, MTOY was going every bit as well in that race as he was in the Betfair hurdle – “breezing along” 2 out and “happy just to sit there” at the final fence according to Simon Holt in the commentary. Chatterbox was about 2 lengths up on MTOY at the last but won 4½ lengths easing up whereas MTOY had to be ridden out for 2nd place. This is not dissimilar to 3 other races where MTOY has been absolutely cantering along but not finished with the same authority that you would have thought he would. This includes Ascot when he beat Taquin Du Seuil and a couple of his bumpers. Admittedly, his last 2 races have looked great but some of MTOY's previous races make me think that there may be a chink in him.
Anyway, this is probably all meaningless because the vibes are that Chatterbox will miss Cheltenham but I wish Nicky Henderson would let him take his chance in the Supreme – not least because I don’t want to lose my ante-post bet !
 
Only problem with that is Puffin Billy was found to have a genuine reason for losing that day. The only reason he's longer in the betting is he's unlikely to run in the Supreme, if the ground is anything like approaching decent, he'll go for the Neptune

He was found to have a genuine reason for running a bit below form, not a genuine reason for losing. Don't think he would have beaten the winner under any circumstances.

MR's target race has yet to be finally decided. At the moment they seem to be favouring the Supreme, but good ground could well bring about a change of plan.
 
Slim
On OR's, Dunguib was rated 6lb higher than GMOOH, on RPR's the same.
The OH has MTOY 9lb higher than Jezki, on RPR's 8lb clear of Dodging Bullets (Jezki lower).
I've no idea of Timeform's historical ratings, but I do know all 3 services have MTOY as considerably the better horse - at this stage
 
Slim
On OR's, Dunguib was rated 6lb higher than GMOOH, on RPR's the same.
The OH has MTOY 9lb higher than Jezki, on RPR's 8lb clear of Dodging Bullets (Jezki lower).
I've no idea of Timeform's historical ratings, but I do know all 3 services have MTOY as considerably the better horse - at this stage

Thanks for pointing that out.
 
just throwing this one out there,ive been attempting to do some trends analysis and ive come up with mozoltov ay 25/1.Thoughts please.......
 
just throwing this one out there,ive been attempting to do some trends analysis and ive come up with mozoltov ay 25/1.Thoughts please.......

He is probably the yard third-string after Un Atout and Champagne Fever, fonz.
 
Oh!! Nobody told me I couldn't have that(and didn't think of it at all when I changed it to the whole of feb's bet!!) so I just thought the limit was for win bets only (my bad, I'm stupid and misunderstood!!)


Though that does mean i can have ten runners - Thank you chef !!!! :D
 
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He is probably the yard third-string after Un Atout and Champagne Fever, fonz.

your probabley right grass but russel will be on un atout who i reckon is a bit too inexperienced anyway which leaves cf who might want further and with dodging bullets not exactly a world beater i reckon theres an even chance ruby might do the steering.
 
I've finished my study of MTOY and I can't knock his form - I still have him on 160+ the only negatives I could find are track form and possibly has it to prove if the ground has good in it. He certainly has more positives but at the price I will be looking for value e/way against him. Hoping that horse will be Dodging Bullets whom I've dropped 3lbs to 155+ but I can't understand the proximity in the betting of River Maigue it must be based on home work it can't possibly be on form.
 
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