Royal Ascot 2021

Not often I post on a flat thread but Betfair are currently boosting Alenquer to 5/2 tomorrow which IMO is extremely generous.

Aside from beating the Derby winner and tomorrow’s rival Yibir at Sandown, he’ll appreciate the extra 2f and being a German bred is related to a family who love it the deeper the better (inc In Swoop) and its supposed to lash down all day tomorrow at Ascot. The opposition are really poor and I’m being kind there.

Max bet for me as I’d have him close to Evens.
 
wilsonl said:
Not often I post on a flat thread but Betfair are currently boosting Alenquer to 5/2 tomorrow which IMO is extremely generous.

Aside from beating the Derby winner and tomorrow’s rival Yibir at Sandown, he’ll appreciate the extra 2f and being a German bred is related to a family who love it the deeper the better (inc In Swoop) and its supposed to lash down all day tomorrow at Ascot. The opposition are really poor and I’m being kind there.

Max bet for me as I’d have him close to Evens.
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Best of luck, Lee.

I think Tasbay Bay is a danger to Alenquer or good each way value at the price anyway.

I know strictly on the collateral form through John Leeper he has something to find with the likes of Alenquer but I still feel the trajectory of his form is very positive.

Johnny Murtagh has a very live chance in the Commonwealth Cup. His filly Measure Of Magic has improved just at the right time.

Good luck all tomorrow.
 
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wilsonl said:
Not often I post on a flat thread but Betfair are currently boosting Alenquer to 5/2 tomorrow which IMO is extremely generous.

Aside from beating the Derby winner and tomorrow’s rival Yibir at Sandown, he’ll appreciate the extra 2f and being a German bred is related to a family who love it the deeper the better (inc In Swoop) and its supposed to lash down all day tomorrow at Ascot. The opposition are really poor and I’m being kind there.

Max bet for me as I’d have him close to Evens.
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Cheers,Lee; wasn't aware of the forecast until I read your post.
 
wilsonl said:
Not often I post on a flat thread but Betfair are currently boosting Alenquer to 5/2 tomorrow which IMO is extremely generous.

Aside from beating the Derby winner and tomorrow’s rival Yibir at Sandown, he’ll appreciate the extra 2f and being a German bred is related to a family who love it the deeper the better (inc In Swoop) and its supposed to lash down all day tomorrow at Ascot. The opposition are really poor and I’m being kind there.

Max bet for me as I’d have him close to Evens.
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Is this going to be the most over bet formline of the season? The Mediterranean is still completely unexposed for starters.
 
Slim said:
Is this going to be the most over bet formline of the season? The Mediterranean is still completely unexposed for starters.
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I thought the same thing, and still do with regards taking the form too literally because Adayar was clearly a different horse at Epsom.

However, with the forecast rain and average opposition, I reckon 5/2 (was maxed to £100 at that price) is actually underbet considering his closest market rival has only won a Yarmouth maiden.

Its only the fact he isn’t much shorter that’s holding me back from seriously unloading. The Sandown form may yet turn out to be flattering but anything over 2/1 in this race is worth paying to find out IMO.

The Mediterranean hasn’t shown much so far but would still be more of a worry if the stable’s middle distance 3yo colt’s were a normal Coolmore bunch but until proven otherwise I’ll take them on this year, albeit Sir Lamorak looked a touch unlucky earlier.
 
Must own up to a small interest on Lee's selection, but have gone in bigger on Gear Up. Won a small gp1 (James Doyle up) on holding ground at Saint-Cloud last backend. Fair 5th in the Dante on his return, then went off too quickly in the Derby.
With the Doyler back on board,and the forecast rain, surely the current 12/1 is just too big.
 
wilsonl said:
I thought the same thing, and still do with regards taking the form too literally because Adayar was clearly a different horse at Epsom.

However, with the forecast rain and average opposition, I reckon 5/2 (was maxed to £100 at that price) is actually underbet considering his closest market rival has only won a Yarmouth maiden.

Its only the fact he isn’t much shorter that’s holding me back from seriously unloading. The Sandown form may yet turn out to be flattering but anything over 2/1 in this race is worth paying to find out IMO.

The Mediterranean hasn’t shown much so far but would still be more of a worry if the stable’s middle distance 3yo colt’s were a normal Coolmore bunch but until proven otherwise I’ll take them on this year, albeit Sir Lamorak looked a touch unlucky earlier.
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Problem is he's 2/1 general. 5/2 fair enough but 2/1 is desperately short versus unexposed horses when we don't even know the ground yet.
 
You think? Always someone else/something else's fault. At least 10 excuses ready after a ride like that and none of them down to his riding. And as posted earlier in this thread or other recent one, only tries when he thinks he has a chance. I could tell you stories. One well known flat trainer invented new swear words after a ride he gave a 2 year old, ignored all instructions, gave it a hard race, was specifically told not to, and then said 'oh that was better than I thought he would be'. Trainer almost had to be restrained.
 
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G-G said:
only tries when he thinks he has a chance. I could tell you stories.
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There is no doubt he doesn't give a bollocks on some horses. There was a ride last week where he gave one a ride a 10lb claimer would be embarrassed by. Once he didn't get a soft lead he burnt the horse up on the outside and lead anyway. The horse was tailed off.
 
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Forgive Lullaby Moon her poor run in the French Guineas (She had beaten the 1st & 3rd at Deauville, on hvy, last year) and her form stacks up pretty good. Connections welcome the rain, too.
At 40/1 (4 places) across the board, what's not to like, eh? :)
 
I think that's harsh, Slim. He wasn't the only jockey in that race guilty of going too fast but even some of those ahead of him early stayed ahead of him.

I have no reason to believe you'd be financially involved in a race of that nature so I'm presuming it isn't your pocket talking.

The horse just wasn't good enough on the day. I'm sure if people looked hard enough they'd find loads of examples of him getting it badly wrong but in the races that matter he makes fewest mistakes.

He definitely got it badly wrong on Stradivarius. A blind man wearing a balaclava back to front could see that trouble coming yesterday. It was a shocker of a ride.

Loads of poor rides in evidence this week from so-called top jockeys. Must be the pressure of the meeting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think that's harsh, Slim. He wasn't the only jockey in that race guilty of going too fast but even some of those ahead of him early stayed ahead of him.

I have no reason to believe you'd be financially involved in a race of that nature so I'm presuming it isn't your pocket talking.

The horse just wasn't good enough on the day. I'm sure if people looked hard enough they'd find loads of examples of him getting it badly wrong but in the races that matter he makes fewest mistakes.

He definitely got it badly wrong on Stradivarius. A blind man wearing a balaclava back to front could see that trouble coming yesterday. It was a shocker of a ride.

Loads of poor rides in evidence this week from so-called top jockeys. Must be the pressure of the meeting.
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There are below average rides every day of the week but in Frankie's case he just has no motivation in lesser races when a race doesn't go to plan.
 
Am aware everyone has the internet and can read the forecast, but I live 7 miles from the course and have just returned from a 1 hour walk absolutely soaked to the skin…Don’t be surprised if there’s Heavy in description if it continues!
 
Slim said:
There are below average rides every day of the week but in Frankie's case he just has no motivation in lesser races when a race doesn't go to plan.
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I agree. I'm just not sure that race was a prime example of it. Seeing that race for the first time a few minutes ago I imagined I'd backed it so see what I thought and I found myself shrugging my shoulders and saying "not good enough on the day". Maybe even just prepping for something bigger.
 
The going stick readings last night suggested the ground was faster than at the start of the day although maybe they were taken before the rain came late yesterday afternoon.

Still, at least we got a couple of days when the draw didn't seem to matter too much. I think today the high numbers will dominate again on the straight course because of the rain.
 
Soft now will go deeper.

I've done the German filly in the Coronation and dutched Hukum and Wonderful Tonight in the Hardwicke tomorrow.
 
Absolutely bucketing again now and has been for the last half hour so & would be amazed if not hitting the course. It’s going to be very soft…
 
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