Ryanair Chase

Actually, I would be inclined to rule him out chrishorse, mainly on the evidence that according to connections he probably won't even run in the race as he is being targeted at the Gold Cup.
 
Originally posted by Grasshopper@Mar 7 2008, 03:03 PM
I wish Pipe would hurry up and make his fecking mind up about where he's going to run Tamarinbleu.
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That would be the same logical thinking Pipe mind that aimed Osana at the County Hurdle instead of the Supreme last year!!!! I agree with you Mr Hopper, but once bitten etc and have so far relented, though will probably get a bit NRNB today.
 
I agree granger. The horse is overrated, plain and simple. If 80% of the above field rocks up then I will be place-laying. Only chance is in a weak field or if others run below par, a bit like the Peterbrough.

I have made more money opposing this horse than any other, with the possible exception of Sir Percy.
 
Originally posted by granger@Mar 7 2008, 11:26 PM
Mossbank the up and coming horse. gets my nod
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Mine too. Though I've had a small bet on Tamarinbleu as well, in the hope Pipe would run him here
 
Just one word of warning, on his only outing here Mossbank ran dismally, possibly another of Hourigans which doesn't act at the course.
 
More and more rain is forecast...particularly Thursday and Thursday night. RUK are suggesting it is about to rain again shortly.
 
I believe this one might be solved by numbers, and having laid (and got away by the skin of my teeth) Sizing Europe for a place, I'm considering doing similar for Mossbank. The secret might lie in the course geometry and topography as many of these seem to have a preference.

win - placed - number of runs

.......................Left Handed........Right Handed.............Undulating

Our Vic...............4 - 4 - 14...........5 - 2 - 7...................6 - 4 - 14......... 1 fall in 17 chases
The Listener.........6 - 1 - 14...........2 - 0 - 7...................3 - 0 - 9.......... 3 falls in 13 chases
L'Antartique..........5 - 4 - 17...........1 - 1 - 2...................3 - 2 - 26........ 2 falls in 12 chases

Now on the negative side

Racing Demon........0 - 1 - 3...........8 - 4 - 16..................4 - 2 - 9............ 2 falls in 12 chases
Turko.................2 - 5 - 12.......... 4 - 0 - 5...................1 - 4 - 7............ no falls in 9 chases
Mossbank.............0 - 1 - 5...........4 - 1 - 10..................0 - 0 - 1............. 1 fall in 9 chases


Left handed win and place percentage

Our Vic = 57% - 28% win
The Listener = 50% - 43% win
L'Antartique = 53% - 29% win
Racing Demon = 0%
Turko = 58% but critically just 17% win. The 80% win record right handed hints at a preference as he doesn't re-produce it the other way round, and he seems to prefer a flatter track too
Mossbank = 0%

Horses tend need optimum conditions to win grade 1 races, and the case against Mossbank isn't necessarily concrete, but as a favourite in a tight looking race, I reckon you'd rather be a layer than a backer. A 50% win and place ratio going right handed, is no where near replicated going t'other way round (20%). An even greater disparity exists on his win ratio. The evidence against him isn't conclusive as regards an undulating track (Raceform classifications) but I'm assuming the 1 time he's tried it was last years SAC, where he was beaten 13 of 17 over 40L's behind Denman
 
Warbler

Mossbank was wrong all of last year, as were most of Hourigan's horses from November onwards. Any of his form then is a complete write off. He was beaten after a few fences against horses he would pick up and carry now.

Other reasons may well prove you right but that stat is no way by which to rule out Mossbank. Should you fall tomorrow then you may inadvertently look to be correct in your analysis but the methodology would be flawed. Similarly, we all know SE would have been in the first three were it not for something going wrong given the way he was travelling.

This year, he's been kept fresh and the stable haven't been in such dire form. He has one run over a left handed track - a close enough second to Denman with The Listener behind them.

SO I wouldn't be worried by the way he is going...
 
Looks the hardest race of the day for me. I wouldn`t back anything but if LAntartique shortens too much i`ll lay him.
 
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