Sectional Timing

Tanlic said:
I wish I could make up a book but I must admit I am clueless.....I just look at what's on offer when I fancy one and most of the time my selections tend to shorten.

But to make up a book and then compare your own prices to those on offer has to be an advantage if you are good at it
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And me, tan, although even clueless would be flattering.
 
Maruco said:
That's exactly as I view it. I know some disagree and will say a winner is a winner, but we all win to percentages, and it's our win percentage combined with the true win chance of the horses we back that decide whether we're profitable or not. It's punting theory 1-0-1, backing horses at poor value inevitably means you lose overall.

In this instance say the view is that the right price for John Leeper is 6/1, so anything above that and he's a bet. The 4/1 after Segal put him up should make him a bargepole job, and you should swerve the race. Someone who backed him at 4/1 that is happy to ignore value will argue that he was winner and so what. But the point is that a horse that should be 6/1 will theoretically come in 1 in 6 times (it's actually slightly worse than that in true terms), so overall you end up behind. The bottom line is the bet is a bad bet whether it wins or not.
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Never been a big subscriber to the value concept. It's an opinion, after all, and (imo) 'true value' cannot be known until after the race.
Sure, I can spot one I consider over-priced, but I'd rarely bet a horse on its price alone.
Im with BJ on this; it's winners (allied to strike rate) that pay the bills.
 
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John Leeper goes off 11/2 and disgraces himself. The perfect example of a horse I would never want to be on again. Today was his day and the horse is simply a bust.
 
reet hard said:
Never been a big subscriber to the value concept. It's an opinion, after all, and (imo) 'true value' cannot be known until after the race.
Sure, I can spot one I consider over-priced, but I'd rarely bet a horse on its price alone.
Im with BJ on this; it's winners (allied to strike rate) that pay the bills.
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I remember GT on TRF used to drive me crazy with his value bets. He would actually say he didn't think one could win but it was value which left me scratching my head

It still does when others talk about value. To me the value in every race is the same.......you back the winner you win money and if you win money you got the best possible value
 
He was the main reason I left TRF. Didn't have an 'ignore' function back then, and he'd bore the tits off the Venus De Milo.
 
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As an aside, one thing I have noticed is that - when going through a race - I will spot a horse that may be over-priced, and spend too long making a case for it, mentally. Inevitably, that detracts from searching for the winner, and I wondered if anyone had a view on this aspect?
 
Slim said:
John Leeper goes off 11/2 and disgraces himself. The perfect example of a horse I would never want to be on again. Today was his day and the horse is simply a bust.
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I didn't/wouldn't have backed the horse yesterday (unless it was a huge price) so no axe to grind but I'd write that race off as a contest. Slow early, injection of pace, slow it up and quicken again.

It was a brilliant ride on the winner, good rides on the next couple for not being too caught out and poor rides on everything else.

I'll be rating the race as the winner running to his mark and everything else will be rated in relation to it.
 
reet hard said:
As an aside, one thing I have noticed is that - when going through a race - I will spot a horse that may be over-priced, and spend too long making a case for it, mentally. Inevitably, that detracts from searching for the winner, and I wondered if anyone had a view on this aspect?
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This is something I do too unfortunately especially if the horse in question is 20/1+


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reet hard said:
As an aside, one thing I have noticed is that - when going through a race - I will spot a horse that may be over-priced, and spend too long making a case for it, mentally. Inevitably, that detracts from searching for the winner, and I wondered if anyone had a view on this aspect?
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Looking evening before I sometimes keep an eye on the price as I don’t think connections and their confidants would let the price go for long when the horse is ready to win. JL might well have fooled me since I didn’t know it was Segal tip!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I didn't/wouldn't have backed the horse yesterday (unless it was a huge price) so no axe to grind but I'd write that race off as a contest. Slow early, injection of pace, slow it up and quicken again.

It was a brilliant ride on the winner, good rides on the next couple for not being too caught out and poor rides on everything else.

I'll be rating the race as the winner running to his mark and everything else will be rated in relation to it.
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I wrote the bet off after 5 furlongs because of how the race was won but it doesn't stop the horse being a bust. He needs to be gelded for a start.
 
Maruco said:
Not true though Reet. Strike rate allied to odds is what pays the bills. Strike rate alone doesn't make you profitable.
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Dress it up how you will M, price is nice, but winners bring home the bacon.
BJ bet one at 9/4 yesterday, but was happy to go in again at shorter; when the market showed it the likely winner.
 
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Winners do bring home the bacon, that's definitely correct Reet. But there's no getting away from the simple fact that if someone's average win SP is 3/1 and they have 20% strike rate they're a losing punter.

Someone less successful than Outsider who chases longshots still needs 1 in 16 wins if they back each way at 25/1 on average, and Tanlic needs to win 90% of the time at the odds he backs at. Only joking Tanlic. :lol: The point is informally they are making a judgement that the horse is a value price. They just play the markets in very different ways. Ways that suit their own mentality. The truth is they have more talent than the likes of me who have to put in a load of hard yards to find what I back. Whether that be networking contacts, doing my own handicaps, regular form study, and producing my own tissue. All in the pursuit of finding horses that the markets have got wrong.

The point is that if you don't track your bets, and don't understand how, when, and why you're successful it's hard to stay ahead. And as much as people push back at backing 'value', it's in irrefutable fact that if you are selectively backing at prices better than they should be you'll be ahead over any period of time.

We are all doing it subconsciously to some degree most of the time. It's just the level of formality we attach to it. You may put one of your daily selections up at 4/1 for example, but my guess is that most you wouldn't look at if the were a fraction of that price. Instinctively you'd think the price was too short, and you'd move on.

Gigolo is a the perfect example of backing value. He's superb at finding things that market hasn't factored in, and he still retains an incredibly high strike rate overall. If he was backing horses at evens or less though he'd likely be a losing punter.

There are so many examples of people on here that are good profitable punters, and it doesn't happen because of pinsticking. It happens because of an ability to find them, a method, and some degree of hard work. The terminology you attach to it is semantics. You back it because you think it's worth it. I back it because I think it's value. The two things are largely the same though. The truth is you just aren't acknowledging you're doing it, because the way you do it is more instinctive that the formal methods i use.
 
There is no sectional timing in Ireland.

Only those that do it themselves, like SR, have it. I posted a link to his piece on last weekend's races somewhere but it isn't now readily visible at the ATR site.
 
France Galop have some good sectional data, here's an interesting race flagged up by the RP:

https://www7.france-galop.com/Casaques/Tracking//20220526LON08_last_times_fr.pdf

600m is about 4 yards short of 3 furlongs so add 0.2s to get a last 3F time.

Two things I can't figure out:

"Redk du 1er" (listed at the top as 1'05"48 for this race)
"Parcouru vs. 1er" (listed on the right)

Redk is obviously some sort of abbreviation and is listed for the first 5 if you scroll down (I know what "du 1er" means).
The translation I'm getting for parcouru is travelled, which makes doesn't really narrow down exactly what it is.

Any help very much appreciated.
 
Desert Orchid said:
There is no sectional timing in Ireland.

Only those that do it themselves, like SR, have it. I posted a link to his piece on last weekend's races somewhere but it isn't now readily visible at the ATR site.
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Thanks. Was wondering if anyone had private numbers.
 
ep1987 said:
France Galop have some good sectional data, here's an interesting race flagged up by the RP:

https://www7.france-galop.com/Casaques/Tracking//20220526LON08_last_times_fr.pdf

600m is about 4 yards short of 3 furlongs so add 0.2s to get a last 3F time.

Two things I can't figure out:

"Redk du 1er" (listed at the top as 1'05"48 for this race)
"Parcouru vs. 1er" (listed on the right)

Redk is obviously some sort of abbreviation and is listed for the first 5 if you scroll down (I know what "du 1er" means).
The translation I'm getting for parcouru is travelled, which makes doesn't really narrow down exactly what it is.

Any help very much appreciated.
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I'll need to have a wee think about "Redk" but "parcouru vs 1er" is the distance compared with the winner travelled by the others.

I recall a Champion Stakes race some years back in which the winner, ims, was a Godolphin ridden by Dettori. It appeared to start towards one side of the field and weaved gradually through to the other and won. I thought it could be marked up because it appeared to travel further but the sectional information showed it had actually run a shorter distance than the rest.

Certainly food for thought and I haven't seen that info anywhere since until seeing that graphic.
 
ep1987 said:
France Galop have some good sectional data, here's an interesting race flagged up by the RP:

https://www7.france-galop.com/Casaques/Tracking//20220526LON08_last_times_fr.pdf

600m is about 4 yards short of 3 furlongs so add 0.2s to get a last 3F time.

Two things I can't figure out:

"Redk du 1er" (listed at the top as 1'05"48 for this race)
"Parcouru vs. 1er" (listed on the right)

Redk is obviously some sort of abbreviation and is listed for the first 5 if you scroll down (I know what "du 1er" means).
The translation I'm getting for parcouru is travelled, which makes doesn't really narrow down exactly what it is.

Any help very much appreciated.
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Average time of the winner per km would be probably right looking at that
 
Yep, RedK is the average per KM (always a pain to deal with seconds and metric distances) and distance travelled fits perfectly with the numbers on the individual pages (vitesse moyenne = avg speed).

The average speed is rounded to the nearest .1 but using the 56km/h it seems the winner travelled 3156.2m for anyone who is interested.
 
ep1987 said:
France Galop have some good sectional data, here's an interesting race flagged up by the RP:

https://www7.france-galop.com/Casaques/Tracking//20220526LON08_last_times_fr.pdf

600m is about 4 yards short of 3 furlongs so add 0.2s to get a last 3F time.

Two things I can't figure out:

"Redk du 1er" (listed at the top as 1'05"48 for this race)
"Parcouru vs. 1er" (listed on the right)

Redk is obviously some sort of abbreviation and is listed for the first 5 if you scroll down (I know what "du 1er" means).
The translation I'm getting for parcouru is travelled, which makes doesn't really narrow down exactly what it is.

Any help very much appreciated.
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Other countries have a much more seasoned approach to sectionals than we do. On screen live in US, France, Hong Kong & Meydan. Commentators are more on the ball interpreting as they happen, also.
Having said that Richard Hoiles does a good job, with limited resources, too.
 
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