Some race trends

EC1

EC1

On a break
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
17,679
Location
late 1960's early 70's
An interesting race to start with this afternoon is the Gordon Carter Handicap.

Using % of oppo beaten v Betfair SP market expectation shows just how much certain groups of horses have performed in the past. A figure of 1.00 is a performance in line with beaten opponent expection.

AGE
3yo000001.32
4yo000001.32
5yo000000.54
6yo+00000.67

Clearly horses age 5+ beat less opponents than expected....the IV's are very low....that doesn't mean they can't win..but it tells us that any running today will need a fair amount in hand of their price chance to win. There are no 3yo's this year but there are only three 4yo's running.

The three are... Life Less Ordinary 11/2...Archangel Raphael 33/1....Percy Veer 11/1. Even with the fact that 4yo's beat more than they should..a 33/1 shot..even if it has that edge ...is still going to struggle to run well enough to beat a 3 or 4/1 shot. Clearly the shorter price of the 3 horses logically has the best chance of actually winning..again..that doesn't mean the other CAN'T win. Stats are no different from any other angle..they don't give absolutes..nothing does.

with such strong age stats for the race....its worth backing all 3 horses i think...will shove a tenner on each and keep a running profit loss record...and see what happens..prefer the shorter priced ones..but would be daft..and gutting not to shove 33/1 shot in

will have a look at tomorrow and see if anything stands out..hopefully with a few more strong stats than this one

Bets..£10 on each

Life Less Ordinary
Archangel Raphael
Percy Veer



 
Last edited:
Thanks for posting and good luck, EC1. For anyone like me that didn't know the race its the 4:55 at Ascot.
 
Nice profit well done.

I wonder on the long term which staking plan would end in the biggest profit
level stakes or Dutching?

Certainly when the lowest priced horse wins Dutching is the way to go 19.82 @ 11/2... 9.38 11/1 and 3.31@ 33/1 shows a clear profit of 82.53

A slightly bigger profit of 90 pts if the 11/1 shot had won and of course a massively bigger profit if the outsider wins

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator
 
thanks guys

aye....the staking is worth looking at..yesterday was unusual though in that there was only one real strong trend that made including a 33/1 shot..just in case..i think with other races with the nature of trying to find horses that will run above their odds...there will be very few very large priced selections..we'll see.

Had a look at the Cumberland Lodge Stakes for today 2.30 Ascot.

The average IV for all past runners in this is 0.90..so that is the benchmark.

Age
3yo0000001.03
4yo0000000.88
5yo0000000.90
6yo+000000.89

Gender
Colt000001.05
Gelding000.76
Horse00001.00

Class Change
Down000000.84
Up 0000000.78
Same000001.03

Draw
Low0000000.87
Middle0000.82
High000001.05

Combining these into a grid makes it easier to see which horses are likely to run above their odds chance today.

SP000000Horse0000000000000Age0000Gender00Class0000Draw000Average
11/40000Arab Spring00000000.8900001.0000001.0300000.8700000.95
7/200000Kings Fete000000000.9000000.7600001.0300000.8200000.88
7/200000Western Hymn0000000.9000000.7600000.8400000.8700000.84
7/100000Sumbal0000000000000.8800001.0500000.8400001.0500000.96
15/20000Move Up000000000001.0300001.0500000.8400000.8700000.95
12/10000Duretto000000000000.8800000.7600000.7800000.8200000.81
14/10000Star Storm000000000.8800001.0500000.7800000.8200000.88
20/10000Goodwood Zodiac0001.0300000.7600000.7800001.0500000.91
200/1000Black Night00000000.8800001.0500000.7800001.0500000.94

The bolded figures show those above the benchmark of 0.90...on this occasion the most fancied horse..Arab Spring... also has an IV that shows that on top of being the most favoured horse odds wise......he is likely to run above his market chance. The added bonus for Arab Spring is that his nearest market threats both have below benchmark IV's..suggesting that they are not only inferior re the market chance..they are likely to run below that level.

The other two nearest horses with positive IV's are Sumbal and Move Up..but as they only have an IV similar to Arab Spring the gulf between the market chance is unlikely to be closed. If Arab Spring had had a below par IV then it might be worth backing both of those...but as it is..the Arab looks good.

So its hard to oppose Arab Spring using this analysis.........todays tenner goes on ARAB SPRING


forgot to add the main contenders trainer runner ratings.

Stoute0000001.20
Gosden0000001.08
Suroor0000001.00

 
Last edited:
i've watched that finish 3 times..and in my mind i think spencer thought he had got it and his hands stopped getting busy once he hit the front..i think he thought he had won it 50 yards out..mmm..oh well..thats racing
 
can i ust ask..the 15+ who have viewed..why not post something?

at some point..those that offer to the foum..will pee off..and then what will you be left with?..a few threads where worthies will call each other by christian names and arrange meet ups at punchestown etc

i'd start using the forum if i were you..unless you want it to turn into the mindnumbing void the above suggests
 
now 40 views..since booh.....and bugger all to offer..whats up with you guys?..forum is turning into a borefest due to non participation..what you gonna do about it..sit back?

i'd be starting to take part if i were you..whilst its still here
 
Last edited:
I can't think of any inherent reason why the Arc is a bad race for 5yos while the Champion Stakes is a good one. The stat is not enough on its own to persuade me to avoid 5yos in one race and be attracted to them in the other.
 
they only refelect past performance versus expected performance Grey..you either believe what has happend in the past and believe it will carry on. Sometimes the..well why is that logiacl?..has no explanation

thats what stats..if they are based on really what has happened..tell you..same as what a horse's form line tells you..although a form line has significantly less info in it

sometimes its clear from a horse form line..it will be unlikely to win..but punters still pile on..you cannot explain it

its like AOB's arc record..most punters thought he did badly..these figures told me that was not right..you have to make your mind up what is relevant..in your own mind..and what is not

thats what great about the game really..we all have different views..what i tend to do over a period of years..is try what works and what don't..discard what don't and retain what does.

i've found the stuff i retain is pretty decent..and what i disregard is not as decent..when a punter has done that ..his work has been done re analysis..but..it takes a long time to find good or bad though..in old days it might have taken 20 years..nowadays its a lot less with info available at finger touch
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
can i ust ask..the 15+ who have viewed..why not post something?

at some point..those that offer to the foum..will pee off..and then what will you be left with?..a few threads where worthies will call each other by christian names and arrange meet ups at punchestown etc

i'd start using the forum if i were you..unless you want it to turn into the mindnumbing void the above suggests
Click to expand...

I viewed it to see which races and what sort of trends were being covered as the title was unspecific. Having seen it, I realised it's of no immediate interest to me and I can't add anything of value because I rarely bet - that's not my interest in racing.
 
I viewed it and am waiting with bated breath for the next instalment :)

I might not add a comment as you know trends are of limited appeal to me but it doesn't mean I'm not interested in your take on them. I'm happy to leave it people with something meaningful to say to add their tuppence worth.
 
Last edited:
i weren't just on about this thread for goodness sake:)

it was just a general view that many people keep viewing threads but don't take part

you know..at end of day..anyone here can disappear into the void..its no skin off my nose if i never post again..same as anyone else..the issue i'm trying to highlight is..many views..fook all posts..its no good..if forum wants to keep going..i don't want to talk to mesen..someone like Col don't either...that guy keeps that 2yo thread going with hardly a word of appreciation..and yet thousands view it

all i am saying is..forums disappear nowadays..due to folk viewing..but not taking part..to survive the twatter expolsion..folk need to take part..one thing is for sure..those taht have gone to tawtter must like talking to themselves or being constantly criticised..coz that is all i see on there..a sh1te carry on imo

just don't don't be crying when there is nowt to read any more:)..bar twatter and co
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
i weren't just on about this thread for goodness sake:)

it was just a general view that many people keep viewing threads but don't take part

you know..at end of day..anyone here can disappear into the void..its no skin off my nose if i never post again..same as anyone else..the issue i'm trying to highlight is..many views..fook all posts..its no good..if forum wants to keep going..i don't want to talk to mesen..someone like Col don't either...that guy keeps that 2yo thread going with hardly a word of appreciation..and yet thousands view it

all i am saying is..forums disappear nowadays..due to folk viewing..but not taking part..to survive the twatter expolsion..folk need to take part..one thing is for sure..those taht have gone to tawtter must like talking to themselves or being constantly criticised..coz that is all i see on there..a sh1te carry on imo

just don't don't be crying when there is nowt to read any more:)..bar twatter and co
Click to expand...


Don't ask the question if you don't want an answer! Itdidn't read like a rhetorical question.

Fuxxsake, you criticise us for not posting then criticise when we do...
 
its ok..i won't ask anything if thats your attitude...i'm trying to help the forum..i'll be fooked if i am taking criticism for doing so

you can't win on here....if thats the attirude on here..then fook it..what is the point?

no wonder folk just read rather than stick their head above parapet with that type of response
 
Last edited:
You asked a question (apparently), I answered it in good faith, I essentially got told not to bother because you weren't really interested. YOU were the one with the attitude, not me.
 
A stat is no use unless it can be explained.

Showing say no 8 is the lucky place to be in a particular race, while you can forget about it if you're in 6 or 7, make no sense to me even if the data are accurate.

Looking at a trainer's history in a given race often makes sense because they have their ways of doing things. But there was a little 4k race today at Bath where the RP comment said of the previous year's winner, Danglydontask, "presumably been aimed at this since as had nearly two months off". That's just daft, you wouldn't deliberately leave a horse idle for that long in order to win a small prize.

On the other hand looking at what trainers have done in the past with their best horses in the biggest races makes perfect sense because these are the targets everyone aspires to. It also makes sense to look at where trainers like to start off their best horses and the type of programmes they map out for them.

Regarding the Arc and Champion Stakes, both are late season all-age middle distance races and until an explanation can be arrived at why one favours 5yos and the other doesn't I won't take it too seriously. Between 1953 and 1983 3yos had a near monopoly on the Champion Stakes whereas this century they've only had 5 wins. Maybe the explanation for that lies in the changed range of options for horses, particularly with the arrival of the Breeders Cup and the increased prize fund for the Arc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champion_Stakes#Winners
 
Last edited:
Grey said:
A stat is no use unless it can be explained.

Showing say no 8 is the lucky place to be in a particular race, while you can forget about it if you're in 6 or 7, make no sense to me even if the data are accurate.

Looking at a trainer's history in a given race often makes sense because they have their ways of doing things. But there was a little 4k race today at Bath where the RP comment said of the previous year's winner, Danglydontask, "presumably been aimed at this since as had nearly two months off". That's just daft, you wouldn't deliberately leave a horse idle for that long in order to win a small prize.

On the other hand looking at what trainers have done in the past with their best horses in the biggest races makes perfect sense because these are the targets everyone aspires to. It also makes sense to look at where trainers like to start off their best horses and the type of programmes they map out for them.

Regarding the Arc and Champion Stakes, both are late season all-age middle distance races and until an explanation can be arrived at why one favours 5yos and the other doesn't I won't take it too seriously. Between 1953 and 1983 3yos had a near monopoly on the Champion Stakes whereas this century they've only had 5 wins. Maybe the explanation for that lies in the changed range of options for horses, particularly with the arrival of the Breeders Cup and the increased prize fund for the Arc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champion_Stakes#Winners
Click to expand...

i have to say..the stats for trainers in these big races look really relevant Grey..i like v much

i know what you mean about the age thing..but as we know..sometimes logic or reason don't come into it

thats why i like to dig deeper by looking at every horse in a race and see if it beat what it should..in the Arc..over 10 years 5yo don't..in the champion ,,,they do..thats what the last 10 years of 5yo's have done as whole. Maybe its a blip..but if it is its affected all the 5yo's that have run in each race

the rule generally is..if it isn't logical..ignore it..i agree to a certain extent..but we are looking at two different races re the Arc and CS..different tests..require different credentials.

its the different credentials we don't always suss...why would 5yo do badly in the Arc?..why would they do better in teh CS..i don't know..but they have done..and it doesn't look random..although..it may be.

what a game this is
 
Last edited:
I've been looking in detail at the stats for good 2-y-o sires and there seem to be a lot of "blips" in there. Very difficult to logically account for them

Question: Dandy Man had 200/1 winner at Wolverhampton in the period I'm looking at (2014/16) which totally "skews" his results, what do you do?
 
Colin Phillips said:
I've been looking in detail at the stats for good 2-y-o sires and there seem to be a lot of "blips" in there. Very difficult to logically account for them

Question: Dandy Man had 200/1 winner at Wolverhampton in the period I'm looking at (2014/16) which totally "skews" his results, what do you do?
Click to expand...


that one question actually tells a big story how many feel about stats..but not form reading when it kicks them in bollox in the same way.

could you imagine someone saying..yes this horse has never won on soft in 20 runs..but it did today..i'm never following form again..its nonsense.

it wouldn't happen would it?..when the above happens form reader takes it on the chin..but when a stat fails..punters immediately dismiss all stats on one failure

its an interesting mindset study imo...it matters not how many times form reading lets a punter down..he will stick with it..first time a stat fails to be correct..well they no good..won't use them again

how is this explained i wonder?...why is one failure so different from a failure using a different method..one makes people turn away from it..whilst other kicks them hard probably daily but they still stick with it
 
Last edited:
Regarding the Arc and Champion Stakes, both are late season all-age middle distance races and until an explanation can be arrived at why one favours 5yos and the other doesn't I won't take it too seriously. Between 1953 and 1983 3yos had a near monopoly on the Champion Stakes whereas this century they've only had 5 wins. Maybe the explanation for that lies in the changed range of options for horses, particularly with the arrival of the Breeders Cup and the increased prize fund for the Arc.


thought i'd have a look at this 5yo conundrum Grey

firstly..before i even look at what has happened in past group races..the arc and CS are different tests..one is 2f further..so even before i look at any figures something tells me is it possibly the distance thats affecting it..i'll wager that sprinting 5yo's do better than 5yo's over further

starting with all Group 1 and 2 races to give more data..in the last 10 years there have been 309 races at all distance in those class bands

3yo: 100/800.....AE = 0.92
4yo: 101/1045....AE = 0.80
5yo: 57/578.......AE = 0.87
6yo: 32/346.......AE = 0.95
7yo: 13/189.......AE = 0.69
8yo+: 6/138......AE = 0.58

nothing earth shattering there..as horses get older..they perform worse by the year after 6yo.

looking at different distances..11f+ = 89 races

11f+

3yo: 19/190.....AE = 0.90
4yo: 43/308.....AE = 1.25
5yo: 13/136.....AE = 0.81
6yo: 8/72........AE = 0.87
7yo: 4/49........AE = 0.73
8yo+: 2/43......AE = 0.42

compared to all runs..the AE says that 5yo at 11f+ perform worse than they do at all distances

now 9.5f - 10.5f = 50 races

3yo: 16/127.....AE = 0.76
4yo: 15/151.....AE = 0.71
5yo: 13/75.....AE = 1.27
6yo: 5/37........AE = 1.48
7yo: 1/14........AE = 0.84
8yo+: 0/4

so there it is..in 10f races not only 5yo do better than they do at 11f+..so do 6yo...both age groups run way above their odds chance

its not just a distance thing though..because at 5 6 + 7f............ 5yo AE = 0.68

so i can't explain it,,but from a decent sample size..for some reason 5yo do better in 9-10f group races than they do in 11f+
 
Last edited:
Regarding the 5-y-os thing. Worth looking at how many of the 5-y-os that have done well in the Champion Stakes are geldings. Obviously they aren't allowed to enter the Arc, and likely that most entires that were Arc winning standard at 3/4 have been retired by the time they are 5, so it's mostly nearly horses rather than genuine top-notch 5-y-os that run in the Arc, Postponed an exception, rather than the rule.
 
Back
Top