Sorry jumping fans!

For a race worth six and a half grand, the Brocklesby looks unbelievably competitive this year. Create A Dream, the Wesley Ward runner, has had plenty of advance publicity. She's by Oasis Dream out of a mare who was sold for not far short of half a million when carrying Create A Dream. Mark Johnston's representative, The Last Lion (by Choisir), cost over eighty grand and Tom Dascombe (Full Intention - £54k) and Bill Turner (Crucial Moment - £40k) both have quite expensive runners. Turner actually has quite a chunter about it in today's Post: "...I'm probably not going to bother risking getting one ready next year as it's gone silly; you need a £150,000 horse and I'm not going to advise anyone to spend that because they can still be rubbish".
 
The 3yo maiden also looks interesting: three debutants that cost six figures plus several owner-bred types with good pedigrees.

On a separate note, could this thread be renamed? It shouldn't have to apologise for itself.
 
The Brocklesby was considerably less competitive by the time of the off but the winner was still pretty impressive.

Sadly, time analysis is difficult because there was clearly a problem with the equipment at Donny yesterday. The Post gives 1m46.25s for the Lincoln but that's "hand-timed" and four of the seven other races on the card (including the Brocklesby) have times ending with a zero which always rings alarm bells.

Poor show.
 
Gus, with regard to the thread title, the original post was made on January 1st. and I was afraid of the abuse I would attract, it wasn't meant to be the title of the 2-y-o thread for the rest of the season.

If the title could be changed there would be no objection from this quarter.
 
gus said:
The Brocklesby was considerably less competitive by the time of the off but the winner was still pretty impressive.

Sadly, time analysis is difficult because there was clearly a problem with the equipment at Donny yesterday. The Post gives 1m46.25s for the Lincoln but that's "hand-timed" and four of the seven other races on the card (including the Brocklesby) have times ending with a zero which always rings alarm bells.

Poor show.
Click to expand...

i've stuck the straight course races through software to check the times..oddly enough the Lincoln was a correct time but the first race wasn't. I got the following

Race 1 106.43
Race 2 106.25
Race 3 77.44
Race 4 64.61

I found it interesting how in the first race Hoilesy said they haden't gone a true pace..but the Lincoln and the first race show exactly the same early pace to where the round course elbow comes in..the leader in both races ran from the start to there in 39.94..and in the conditions the finishing % show from 3 out shows that both races had slow finishes compared to over all speed.

That finishing % is irrelevant of ground and shows that both race finishes reflected an overly strong pace in both races. The par % for a true run race over the mile there from 3 out is about 100/101% but the first race % was 93.6% and the lincoln 95.1%. Usually any horse staying at the front in that scenario on would get marked up but in those dire conditions its probably hard to make up ground even when those at the front are slowing more than par later you could say. Then again..it may be that any horse near the pace has actually achieved more than any of those who came off it..because both races should have suited finishers not on pacers. Might be worth watching any horse that was with the pace in next couple of runs from both races.

The brocklesby was an pretty efficiently run race with a finishing % of 99.3..again highlighting the slowness of the first two race finishes.

in the sprint Mobsta was one who did close on the ground in a race run overly fast in the conditions..race % 97.1% was and he was in the best place pace wise being away from it

I got a speed figure for THE LAST LION of 104 which shows that this race now is attracting the better animal..you would normally looking at 85-95 region for the winner of this. That puts him top of the pile up to press for 2yo's.

The ground was really bad..56 lengths per mile slow..which on the universal scale i use is ..V Heavy verging on Ex Heavy
 
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obviously they have to be taken in context of ground Col..if brocklesby winner runs on faster ground next time then i'd be looking at the breeding a bit

Its the same with any ratings though or form reading...i'm confident in those conditions that the figures are fine..same as a form rating compiler would be..whether you trust those ratings on totally different conditions is where judgement comes in

i'm pretty sure that the brocklesby now is a different race quality wise as well..this one is about 10 above the average winner..smaller trainers won't like it as they just won't have the ammo to compete in this if such as Johnston sends these clearly decent early types out

It looks to me like Johnston had that large influs of 2yo's last year and sussed that these early 2yo races were there for the taking if you sent fit + above average for this part of season types to the races

Its an interesting ploy from him anyway
 
EC1 said:
i've stuck the straight course races through software to check the times..oddly enough the Lincoln was a correct time but the first race wasn't. I got the following

Race 1 106.43
Race 2 106.25
Race 3 77.44
Race 4 64.61
Click to expand...

That's very interesting.

How confident are you about the accuracy of the software? Do you cross check all official times or just those where there's a question mark?

It certainly beats me sitting in front of the TV with a remote in one hand and a stopwatch in the other.
 
i only do it with races i can get of telly Gus..then i can memory stick them to computer...and even then if it hadn't been first meet of season i probably wouldn't have bothered. I can get them off youtube for historicals in same way

the first race was the main offender yesterday...and yet the hand timed one was right...very odd isn't it?

i notice that the times for NH racing differs between sporting life site and racing post one as well..they now time from when they pass the starter but obviously whoever does the times has difference of opinion where the plane of the start is
 
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EC1 said:
i only do it with races i can get of telly Gus..then i can memory stick them to computer...and even then if it hadn't been first meet of season i probably wouldn't have bothered. I can get them off youtube for historicals in same way

the first race was the main offender yesterday...and yet the hand timed one was right...very odd isn't it?

i notice that the times for NH racing differs between sporting life site and racing post one as well..they now time from when they pass the starter but obviously whoever does the times has difference of opinion where the plane of the start is
Click to expand...

Thanks for that.

As a matter of interest, the ATR unofficial times were 105.36/105.60/77.17/64.43.
 
There's been support for WICK POWELL in the first at Southwell, 5/1 yesterday, 100/30 this morning, now 2/1. The newcomer is trained by David Barron who has a very good record with 2-y-os at this course in recent years.........and Mark Johnston can't win them all, can he!?
 
First Season Sire, POWER has his first winner with his first runner, Peace Envoy, in the first at Dundalk. It was also the first 2-y-o winner of the season for Aiden O'Brien.
 
Very early table:


STALLION WINNERS–RUNNERS WINS RUNS 2ND 3RD 4TH WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE
Helmet 3–4 75% 3 4 1 0 0 £11,673 £12,732
Sir Prancealot 3–11 27% 3 18 2 1 1 £9,057 £12,379
Power 1–1 100% 1 1 0 0 0 £6,783 £6,783
Dragon Pulse 1–4 25% 1 4 1 0 0 £4,528 £5,683
Elzaam 0–1 — 0 2 2 0 0 £0 £4,191
Bated Breath 0–3 — 0 4 2 0 2 £0 £2,670
Foxwedge 0–3 — 0 4 0 2 0 £0 £1,165
Harbour Watch 0–4 — 0 5 0 1 1 £0 £722
Sayif 0–3 — 0 4 0 1 1 £0 £649
So You Think 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 1 £0 £515
Excelebration 0–2 — 0 2 0 0 1 £0 £289
Casamento 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Born To Sea 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mayson 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
 
Am I imagining it or are FSS winners coming through earlier than they have over the last 2 seasons? I was expecting them to struggle this year with so many good, commercial 2yo sires in the breeding sheds such as Kodiac, Zebedee, Showcasing, Zoffany and Canford Cliffs. But the new boys seem to have come out of the traps quite slickly.
 
I see Helmet has had 3 winners from 4 runners in the UK, but 0 from 17 in Australia.

What are we to make of that?
 
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