Double Handful
At the Start
Less than 3 weeks to go now to that festival Roar at 1:30pm on Tuesday the 10th ! With the preview nights in full flow already, I thought it might be time to start some individual threads for the different races. So first out the gates is The Supreme Novices Hurdle. I think Tanlic mentioned on another thread how notoriously difficult a race this can be to pick the winner. My last and ONLY winner in this race was Sausalito Bay in 2000. But I remain optimistic more than ever that surely this is my year for this race. I have to be due!
Anyway, only one place to start and that is Douvan. Everything I know would normally tell me to oppose this horse. He has had 2 runs in Ireland since joining Willie. Both right handed on heavy ground in small fields and winning on the bridle. Granted he has looked very quick and slick at his hurdles so far but those tests are completely different in every sense to what he will face in the Supreme. So the fact he is 2/1 Fav makes him very much the talking horse. But Boy is that Talk positive. Ruby and Willie both light up when speaking about him and I’m pretty sure I’ve heard Ruby saying he is quicker than Vautour. Even any comments we are seeing so far from the Preview Nights are extremely positive. It certainly seems you would want to be brave to lay him.
However, short priced favourites have a bad record in this and there are a couple of other little things that stuck out to me. Let’s go back to September. Douvan was not even the No.1 Ricci Supreme Novices horse. Allez Colombieres was the early Ante post favourite for the Supreme. His First Race was a Grade 1 were he unfortunately met his demise. Nichols Canyon first race was a Grade 1. However Dovan’s first race was only a 7k Novice Hurdle. And his next race then was a Grade 2. He is yet to even run in a Grade 1 race – yet Nichols Canyon is a 2 time Grade 1 winner (Would be 3 but for UR). Now, of course Douvan could have improved more than they thought from the beginning of the season – But at one point in time I believe he was the number 3 Novice Hurdler in the yard behind AC & NC. No matter what way I try and look at this, he is just too short in price for me. Cue Douvan hacking up on the bridle!
I'd like to see Nichols Canyon going for this and Shaneshill to the Neptune for selfish reasons....I think I'll be waiting until closer to the time to be nailing my colours to any other mast! Anyone have any strong views on Douvan or alternatively fancy something under the radar at a big price?
Anyway, only one place to start and that is Douvan. Everything I know would normally tell me to oppose this horse. He has had 2 runs in Ireland since joining Willie. Both right handed on heavy ground in small fields and winning on the bridle. Granted he has looked very quick and slick at his hurdles so far but those tests are completely different in every sense to what he will face in the Supreme. So the fact he is 2/1 Fav makes him very much the talking horse. But Boy is that Talk positive. Ruby and Willie both light up when speaking about him and I’m pretty sure I’ve heard Ruby saying he is quicker than Vautour. Even any comments we are seeing so far from the Preview Nights are extremely positive. It certainly seems you would want to be brave to lay him.
However, short priced favourites have a bad record in this and there are a couple of other little things that stuck out to me. Let’s go back to September. Douvan was not even the No.1 Ricci Supreme Novices horse. Allez Colombieres was the early Ante post favourite for the Supreme. His First Race was a Grade 1 were he unfortunately met his demise. Nichols Canyon first race was a Grade 1. However Dovan’s first race was only a 7k Novice Hurdle. And his next race then was a Grade 2. He is yet to even run in a Grade 1 race – yet Nichols Canyon is a 2 time Grade 1 winner (Would be 3 but for UR). Now, of course Douvan could have improved more than they thought from the beginning of the season – But at one point in time I believe he was the number 3 Novice Hurdler in the yard behind AC & NC. No matter what way I try and look at this, he is just too short in price for me. Cue Douvan hacking up on the bridle!
I'd like to see Nichols Canyon going for this and Shaneshill to the Neptune for selfish reasons....I think I'll be waiting until closer to the time to be nailing my colours to any other mast! Anyone have any strong views on Douvan or alternatively fancy something under the radar at a big price?
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