Supreme Novices Hurdle 15 March 2022

Tanlic said:
Nicky could have won the Champion Hurdle with Sprinter Sacre but he went straight over fences as will Jonbon even if he won the Supreme by 5 lengths.
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Sprinter Sacre was never a hurdler, he cleared them like they were fences. Not a Champion Hurdler. Jonbon though is crisp and clean - made for hurdling.
 
I think Jonbons nailed on to Champion Hurdle route next year. Constitution Hill will go over the fences.
 
Here’s the top Timeform ratings. I think SIr Gerhard is a tad overrated, Kilcruit heavily underrated and not a fag paper between the other three on what we’ve seen so far. It’s what we haven’t seen that’s going to count, of course, but this must be the highest quality gang that have ever competed the race. They look as though they are all destined for the top of the tree and I think if any one of them wins convincingly then super-stardom beckons.



152p SIR GERHARD
150p DYSART DYNAMO
149p JONBON
148P CONSTITUTION HILL
145P GOOD RISK AT ALL
145p BLAZING KHAL
145p MIGHTY POTTER
145p STAGE STAR
145 THREE STRIPE LIFE
144p GINTO
143p HILLCREST
143p I LIKE TO MOVE IT
143p NORTH LODGE
143p MINELLA COCOONER
142p KILCRUIT
142 FIRST STREET
141p MINELLA CROONER
141p UNEXPECTED PARTY
141 COLONEL MUSTARD
141 FIRST STREET
141 I AM MAXIMUS
 
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Do you have the top 5 or so in the Ballymore by any chance Barjon ?

I’m hovering over the ‘place bet’ button for a large whack on Three Stripe Life in that at 12/1 NRNB.
 
wilsonl said:
Do you have the top 5 or so in the Ballymore by any chance Barjon ?

I’m hovering over the ‘place bet’ button for a large whack on Three Stripe Life in that at 12/1 NRNB.
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Only as they appear above which is the general top list and not restricted to the Supreme. Good luck with TSL if your finger stops hovering.
 
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152p SIR GERHARD
150p DYSART DYNAMO
149p JONBON
148P CONSTITUTION HILL
145P GOOD RISK AT ALL Not Entered
145p BLAZING KHAL Not Entered
145p MIGHTY POTTER His jumping would suggest he'd be better suited by the Ballymore
145p STAGE STAR Goes in the Ballymore
145 THREE STRIPE LIFE Could run in either
144p GINTO not entered
143p HILLCREST not entered
143p I LIKE TO MOVE IT Unlikely Runner
143p NORTH LODGE not entered
143p MINELLA COCOONER not entered
142p KILCRUIT Depends where Sir Gerhard runs but likely runner
142 FIRST STREET not entered
141p UNEXPECTED PARTY not entered
141 COLONEL MUSTARD not entered
141 FIRST STREET I AM MAXIMUS
141 I AM MAXIMUS I AM MAXIMUS

Only 7 possible runners out of the top rated horses would lead you to believe this is going to be a very small field

All the better really if it is there are unlikely to be any hard luck stories
 
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barjon said:
Only as they appear above which is the general top list and not restricted to the Supreme. Good luck with TSL if your finger stops hovering.
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Thanks Barjon. Button clicked. 50% chance he goes Supreme but he’s looked to be crying out for an extra half mile and in the unlikely event the 4 big Mullins & Hendo horses do all run on the Tuesday but he goes on the Wednesday, he’d be much shorter than 12/1.
 
Double J said:
I think Jonbons nailed on to Champion Hurdle route next year. Constitution Hill will go over the fences.
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I don't know if it means anything but I found it interesting that Constutution Hill has been working with Champion Hurdle winner Epatante
and came past her in the closing stages of their recent gallop.

The gallop took place at Kempton and Jonbon worked on his own the same day and was said to look outstanding
 
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Tanlic said:
I don't know if it means anything but I found it interesting that Constutution Hill has been working with Champion Hurdle winner Epatante
and came past her in the closing stages of their recent gallop.
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He’d want to be going past her with ease nowadays to have any chance in this Supreme.
 
wilsonl said:
He’d want to be going past her with ease nowadays to have any chance in this Supreme.
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I hardly think so. Nicky Henderson was asked by Nick Luck I beleive if he would consider running one of his in the Champion Hurdle and Nicky just laughed at the idea.

Epatante has won the Fighting Fifth (DH) and the Christmas Hurdle no novice has achieved anything remotely like that yet as we know.,

Plus I have no idea if Epatante works well at home or not. Jonbon was the most outstanding

You throw any one of the top novices into the Champion Hurdle they could end up with no chance as they would be about 20lbs wrong at the weights.
 
Note the use of the word nowadays in my post. If the 2022 Epatante could win this supreme with only her mares allowance then it’s nothing like the field I thought it to be but as for suggesting no novice has come close to her form this season, an admittedly rudimentary line through Glory & Fortune / I Like to Move It suggests otherwise.

Whether or not she works poorly at home is irrelevant insofar as I think at least one of his two novices would go past her even if she did work well.
 
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Len Madeiros said:
Epatante and CH off levels? Is Epatante now a lay for the festival?
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Nicky Henderson said last month after her 2nd Grade 1 win "I think it is safe to say that questions have been answered successfully and consequently she is back where she belongs"


I suppose much depends on how Appreciate it runs on whether she can get placed again or not.
 
wilsonl said:
Note the use of the word nowadays in my post. If the 2022 Epatante could win this supreme with only her mares allowance then it’s nothing like the field I thought it to be but as for suggesting no novice has come close to her form this season, an admittedly rudimentary line through Glory & Fortune / I Like to Move It suggests otherwise.

Whether or not she works poorly at home is irrelevant insofar as I think at least one of his two novices would go past her even if she did work well.
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What you need to understand is when you ride work the trainer tells you what to do. Very often you are only there to set a half decent gallop to see how another horse responds.

He has often said pull Constitution Hill out and he will just take off. So that is how they will work him because that is what keeps the horse happy

I just watched the actual gallop and that is exactly what happened. Epatante wasn't ask to do much just ridden hands only
Constutution Hill wasn't asked much either but enough to make him take off like he has done in his races.
 
Reading anything into racecourse gallops is the quickest way to the poorhouse. They are meaninglessness PR garbage, and the only benefit you ever get from them, is if something falls when schooling.
 
Grasshopper said:
Reading anything into racecourse gallops is the quickest way to the poorhouse. They are meaninglessness PR garbage, and the only benefit you ever get from them, is if something falls when schooling.
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Pretty much the same as taking trainer quotes as your evidence, only an idiot would rely on such shite, especially when it is Nicky Henderson/Hennessy!!
 
Grasshopper said:
Reading anything into racecourse gallops is the quickest way to the poorhouse. They are meaninglessness PR garbage, and the only benefit you ever get from them, is if something falls when schooling.
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What ? Any piece of work whether be at home or away informs a trainer of the well being of their horses. He uses the information gathered from what he sees and what the jockeys and lads report to him to help him decide the next move for each horse. PR dont be rediculous
 
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Beef or Salmon said:
Pretty much the same as taking trainer quotes as your evidence, only an idiot would rely on such shite, especially when it is Nicky Henderson/Hennessy!!
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You were of course aiming that silly post at me as I just quoted Nicky Henderson so I must be an idiot...as must be every other member on here who has ever quoted a trainer during a debate....My advice to you is to think before you open your disgusting trouble making trap
 
Double J said:
I think Jonbons nailed on to Champion Hurdle route next year. Constitution Hill will go over the fences.
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I've been throwing you and Euro's post around in my head. Let's assume Jonbon has won the Supreme and Honeysuckle has won the Champion Hurdle again and went on to win the PPCH at Punchestown again and she 16/16. Do you honestly think for 1 minute Nicky would send Jonbon the CH route? He like most trainers are ceatures of habit and I dont think if things turn out that way there s anychance he would not send Jonbon straight overfences rather than trying to take on the mare.
 
Tanlic said:
I've been throwing you and Euro's post around in my head. Let's assume Jonbon has won the Supreme and Honeysuckle has won the Champion Hurdle again and went on to win the PPCH at Punchestown again and she 16/16. Do you honestly think for 1 minute Nicky would send Jonbon the CH route? He like most trainers are ceatures of habit and I dont think if things turn out that way there s anychance he would not send Jonbon straight overfences rather than trying to take on the mare.
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I don’t think Jonbon will ever see a fence. Just my opinion of course, you of course could be right also. The mare will win this year again, but I think its the quality shes running against rather than her being the absolute monster shes made out to be.

If I owned/trained a good horse capable, I wouldn’t be running scared of her now. If Jonbon does as you say, there’ll be more calls for him to stay hurdling then fences. Again, thats only my opinion, I think he hurdles too well to go fences.
 
Tanlic said:
What ? Any piece of work whether be at home or away informs a trainer of the well being of their horses. He uses the information gathered from what he sees and what the jockeys and lads report to him to help him decide the next move for each horse. PR dont be rediculous
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In a private gallop at home, then this might apply. They give precisely nothing away in public gallops, and anyone reading anything into what they see (when they have no knowledge of weights carried, jockey instructions etc), is a dope, because they are projecting froma state of blissful ignorance.

The betting public should view these gallops for what they are - a check on legs-per-corner, and nothing else.
 
I feel like this thread might have gone off the rails over the last 3 pagre of theoretical races over fences.
 
Grasshopper said:
In a private gallop at home, then this might apply. They give precisely nothing away in public gallops, and anyone reading anything into what they see (when they have no knowledge of weights carried, jockey instructions etc), is a dope, because they are projecting froma state of blissful ignorance.

The betting public should view these gallops for what they are - a check on legs-per-corner, and nothing else.
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Sometimes a check on legs-per-corner is all you want to see, grassy :). To be fair, trainers tend to prepare their horses in a similar fashion so seeing the sort of work they are getting is informative. My old dad used to say “watch for worn hair on their necks from the reins since it usually means they’ve been getting some serious work”. Never did much for me, though ;)
 
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Tanlic said:
I've been throwing you and Euro's post around in my head. Let's assume Jonbon has won the Supreme and Honeysuckle has won the Champion Hurdle again and went on to win the PPCH at Punchestown again and she 16/16. Do you honestly think for 1 minute Nicky would send Jonbon the CH route?
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Honeysuckle will be 9 next year so I would take her on all day long. Apples Jade and Annie Power were both done by that age
 
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