Supreme Novices Hurdle

links781

links781

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Have backed Cue Card at some very nice prices but read Yesterday that Colin Tizzard is still keeping an open mind about which race to run him in.Surely this is a pure kidology from Tizzard? A leading chance in the Supreme he doesn't stand a chance in the the Champion hurdle?
 
links781 said:
Have backed Cue Card at some very nice prices but read Yesterday that Colin Tizzard is still keeping an open mind about which race to run him in.Surely this is a pure kidology from Tizzard? A leading chance in the Supreme he doesn't stand a chance in the the Champion hurdle?
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Cue Card wouldn't make the first 5 in the Champion Hurdle, I'd be reluctant to back him at current prices in the Supreme too. That said, not sure I'd lay him either:lol:
 
I'd probably have to agree with that statement pw,I was lucky enoug to get a little bit of 10's a lot of 6's and prob too much 3's! fingers crossed now.If and when they decide to have a go at the supreme I can see it being very very short.
 
Hopefully the Tizzards see sense & go for the the Supreme

Would only be interested in the current 5/2 if it was NRNB & can see him starting 5/4 on the day
 
Good word coming for Day Of A Lifetime but they haven't decided which route to go - also drifting out to 31 on betfair for the supreme which never is a good sign. He is a fine specimen of a horse and was rated amoungst the best of WP Mullins bumper horses last year - despite his poor run at Cheltenham last year they believe they have him in a much more settled frame of mind this year.

Any idea of when the big firms will start going NRNB on all races. The first to do it will hoover up a lot of cash!!:whistle:
 
If Dunguib could go off Evens than I see no reason why Cue Card will not be 2-1 on the day. Every layer in the world will be against him.
 
Am I alone in thinking that Cue Card would stand a chance in the Champion Hurdle?

He was beaten 4.5l by Menorah, who is a leading contender for the race, in the International. He pulled hard that day, and gave me the impression he’d be suited by a stronger gallop (which he’d get in the Champion).

I’m not saying he should go for the race – if he was mine I’d run him in the Supreme – but I think it’s a bit strong to suggest he’d have no chance if he was to line up. If he ran, I’d make him about 5th or 6th favourite, perhaps around the 14-1 mark.
 
Deja Vu really, Dunguib last year etc etc. I wouldnt be so keen to back him at those odds given that there are plenty of horses who would may have been minded last year and given time to develop into hurdlers rather than going for the champion bumper. The feeling that the horsemay have been at his peak too soon rather than being a superstar make it nearly impossible for me to back him at the odds available. Its always possible he is a machine, but i dont want to pay to find out at that price, and if i do have a bet it will be an ew bet on something a bit more value.
 
To be honest comparing Cue Card and Dunguib is pretty lazy - bar being wide margin bumper winners the rest of their campaign has little enough in common. Dunguib had obvious question marks regarding the Supreme while CC has answered alot of them.
 
Galileo said:
To be honest comparing Cue Card and Dunguib is pretty lazy - bar being wide margin bumper winners the rest of their campaign has little enough in common. Dunguib had obvious question marks regarding the Supreme while CC has answered alot of them.
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Im still hungover from the weekend, so your calling me lazy is perfectly justifiable...Il let it slide for now....
 
9/1 for the CH is too short but I cant get out of my head his last run he was hacking over that field in my eyes and at the time Tizzards horses weren't quite right and he had said before the horse had missed 2 weeks work. Add to it the race wasn't really run to suit he would have a big chance imo but I'm hoping he goes for the supreme so I can lump on and get the festival off to a flyer.
 
Kauto said:
9/1 for the CH is too short but I cant get out of my head his last run he was hacking over that field in my eyes and at the time Tizzards horses weren't quite right and he had said before the horse had missed 2 weeks work. Add to it the race wasn't really run to suit he would have a big chance imo but I'm hoping he goes for the supreme so I can lump on and get the festival off to a flyer.
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I see Colin Tizzard is suggesting he wasn't entirely happy with Cue Card at the time, but a look at the record shows his horses were in better form in the 5 weeks from late November when he had 5 winners, than in the same time period since, when he needed Queens Bay to land a dire bumper to end a lengthy barren period. He also didn't miss 2 weeks work - like every other horse in the country at the time, he was confined to working on the all-weather gallop. I'm not at all convinced by Mr Tizzard's ability to train a horse, despite being a big fan of Cue Card up until now.
 
rorydelargy said:
I'm not at all convinced by Mr Tizzard's ability to train a horse, despite being a big fan of Cue Card up until now.
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What about Mr Fenton's ability to train a horse - and all ancilliary items a trainer attends to like, race planning, jockey bookings, jockey instructions, routine testing etc etc.

Your thoughts??:whistle:
 
I remain to be convinced as well but he has two exciting novices this year in Cue Card and Hells Bay, both of whom I like for their Cheltenham targets (assuming Cue Card goes for the supreme).
 
The Menorah form is by far the best novice form around surely?I think he will run away with supreme but I couldnt have it 2/1.I think there's a real possibility it could could be a point higher come the day
 
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links781 said:
The Menorah form is by far the best novice form around surely?I think he will run away with supreme but I couldnt have it 2/1.I think there's a real possibility it could could be a point higher come the day
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I think they will go for the Supreme and there will be bombs for him - every layer will try get him beaten - could be ( usually is) a pivotal race for the books. Some hot ones have got turned over in this and I will be looking elsewhere. It's a race I love and have been very lucky in!!:ninja:
 
I'm in two minds whether to lay some of it off, have had it at 10's-6's and 3's,most at 6's.Haven't backed each way-it's a toss up now between making some money or being happy with the value.My gut feeling is to let it ride.
 
links781 said:
I'm in two minds whether to lay some of it off, have had it at 10's-6's and 3's,most at 6's.Haven't backed each way-it's a toss up now between making some money or being happy with the value.My gut feeling is to let it ride.
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Links you have a great position there - personally I would let it ride but there are others here who would shoot you for not trading out for profit! I never trade out but thats just me!:) Just because the market supports your conviction and allows you to guarantee a profit shouldnt in any way lessen your conviction but actually strengthen it!! Good luck with it.
 
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