Sussex Stakes

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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Jan 6, 2005
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Ghanaati vs Rip Van Winkle

This mouth watering clash deserves it's own thread I think. Even though Selkirk was a 4yo at the time this year's match-up reminds me of his clash with Marling in 1992.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7MVhwr7ByM

I backed Selkirk that day and re-watching it I can't help thinking that O'Sullevan may have done his commentary again because i'm sure he called Selkirk as the winner.

Anyway, I can't see a punting angle in this year's renewal so it looks a no bet race for me.
 
Ghanaati should win comfy, this will certainly be an insufficient test for RVW over this 8f..I will back him back over 10f..if he ever runs that trip again.

Poor old RVW, will get slated when he gets beat, Eclipse form will "look" devalued etc

what a shame imo
 
Ghanaati should win cosily. I'm hoping for the strongest possible opposition to get the best price as I have no doubts about her being a genuine top class miler.
 
hope it doesn't cut up Stan, could be a fascinating race, I just fear for the backlash on RVW because the horse just seems to be asked really hard ones
 
Right my positions on this race to date would be:

Paco Boy isn't good enough.
RVW is overrated.

How strong is the fillies form relative to colts?
 
RVW isn't overrated at 8f - his main rating is at 10f

ratings won't come in to it really re his chance here imo

I wonder if AOB is hoping Ghanaati drops out..in fact he's probably hoping the field cuts up for a gimme for him

Paco Boy...back up to 8 from 6..that must have took some thinking out :p

PB should like an easy 8f I would have thought..if they go slow early he could beat em for toe I suppose
 
EC1 said:
RVW isn't overrated at 8f - his main rating is at 10f
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There is a natural tendency on this forum to link the word overrated to a horse's rating. To me it is a lot more closely related to a horse's price.
 
PB has also won on the track, always a bonus at Goodwood. Could be an interesting price if punters just concentrate on the front two.
 
I see where you're coming from, but do you not think his form figures rather than his performances are upppermost in your mind here. I mean, his actual form is as good as Duke of Marmalade's last year. It's just that he hasn't had any easy Group 1's at his mercy. Relatively speaking of course.
 
Great to see Ghanaati given her shot at the colts rather than been kept to the fillies in the Nassau.

She's fairly big though, isn't she? Wouldn't necessarily find Goodwood ideal.
 
I'd agree with that but I'd question his attitude a lot more than DoM's.

Also agree that Paco Boy could be an interesting price at a course which will suit. I just want a decent field which will form a competitive betting market.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Great to see Ghanaati given her shot at the colts rather than been kept to the fillies in the Nassau.

She's fairly big though, isn't she? Wouldn't necessarily find Goodwood ideal.
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the Nassau bores me tbh..so glad she didn't go there

yes - its a different test to Ascot- then again Ascot was a different test to Newmarket and she was impressive both times

pace will be key..she could be out of her comfort zone on the rolling hills if asked to do stuff quickly off a slow one
 
Euronymous said:
I see where you're coming from, but do you not think his form figures rather than his performances are upppermost in your mind here. I mean, his actual form is as good as Duke of Marmalade's last year. It's just that he hasn't had any easy Group 1's at his mercy. Relatively speaking of course.
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It is a good question, but look at this way:

By the time the Goodwood came around last year, Duke of Marmalade had run in four G1 races. Not one horse had finished in front of him.

This year, RVW will have run in three G1 and seven horses have finished in front of him. If you stretch that back to include a fourth G1 (the value of doing so I know you question) you can raise that to thirteen.

DOM won his next G1. I have no desire to back RVW south of 2/1 to do the same.
 
betsmate said:
This year, RVW will have run in three G1 and seven horses have finished in front of him.
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Sea the Stars x 3
Delegator
Gan Amhras
Fame and Glory
Masterofthehorse

It's not a bad little roll call though is it.

RVW has finished in front of Mastercraftsman and Conduit. Had the Duke beaten anything of that quality by this time last year?
 
It is good form, I'm not questioning that. But is has escalated to him to a position in the public opinion that doesn't sit comfortably given his lack of wins. It is that opinion that is influencing his price for me.

I will always regard a horse that has won multiple top class races more highly than one who has been beaten multiple times by what we are presuming are top class horses. It is just the way I work.

Looking at the current win prices on Betfair: If there was a place market then it would be fair to assume that Lord Shanakill would be a bigger price to place than RVW currently is to win. I'm far from completely ruling out the latter, but the former appeals much more as a betting proposition.
 
I do not think the drop to a mile will be a problem for him (in fact I think it is likely to be his best trip) at all but the track will be a nightmare for him considering his tendancy to run around a bit.

Paco Boy looks very interesting to me on this sort of track.
 
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Ghannati has really impressed me, particularily so in her Royal Ascot win, but Rip van Winkle seemed to really have improved in the Eclipse and if he has maintained that he could have the filly's measure. I have said that I think this could be a special crop of three year old colts and this race might provide some further evidence of that.
 
Galileo said:
I do not think the drop to a mile will be a problem for him (in fact I think it is likely to be his best trip) at all but the track will be a nightmare for him considering his tendancy to run around a bit.

Paco Boy looks very interesting to me on this sort of track.
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after RVW puts a massive figure in at 10f..how would you conclude 8f is better for him? he doesn't like undulations much either does he?

PB looks a good fit for the race..is he good enough to beat the filly?
 
Rip's run in the Guineas is not a fair reflection of his ability over a mile much in the same way the Newmarket run did not show Mastercraftsman at his best. A strongly run mile should be fine for Rip but as you say the track will be far from ideal for him.
 
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