The 2016 Grand National

I've just taken 50/1 ew 5 places Wonderful Charm. Nicholls says he's been trained for the race all year, loves good ground and goes well fresh.
 
I take it that's with the NRNB concession, Benny?

I took 66/1 (and bigger on Betfair) a few weeks back but there were no concessions at the time. He had been due to run in (and I expected him to win if they wanted to) one of the big recent races but was taken out at the overnight stage (as also headlined by Paul Kealy for that race) and would be 12/1 if he'd won and 25s or less if he'd run very well.

Definitely one of my more fancied bets so far.
 
I'm eyeing up Boston Bob myself. Felt he should have been campaigned for this a couple of years ago, but its not beyond the realms of possibility Mullins could freshen him up and get him to put his best foot forward. If so, I think he can be competitive.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I take it that's with the NRNB concession, Benny?

I took 66/1 (and bigger on Betfair) a few weeks back but there were no concessions at the time. He had been due to run in (and I expected him to win if they wanted to) one of the big recent races but was taken out at the overnight stage (as also headlined by Paul Kealy for that race) and would be 12/1 if he'd won and 25s or less if he'd run very well.

Definitely one of my more fancied bets so far.
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Yes DO, NRNB.

Though with 365's day of race offer it might be as well to hold fire on too many bets at this stage. Assuming they repeat the offer that is.
 
SlimChance said:
And first 6 in the Masters. E/W doubles at the front end on ones their competitively priced on please.
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Ooooo... I could be tempted. Even though I've had a recent exchange of email with VC re their decision to restrict me. An ew double usually gets the nod from traders at Coral but the VC restriction is new.
 
Sky Bet only paying 5 places in the National but 8 places in the Masters, which to me is the better and safer option for e/w doubles.
 
It doesn't matter whether you are getting 40 places in National if your horse falls or is BD. Either way your double goes the way of Jim Best's training career.

Plus simple maths, there are 89 golfers in the Masters with players as far down the list as Kaymer and G Mac not being out of it, that's something like 40+ genuine runners. Seven of the last 10 Masters winners had an SP of 20/1 or higher. Only Spieth last year and Mickelson (2006 and 2010) went off shorter.

This is about the only golf tournament that I've made profit from in recent times but it still cannot be approached with any degree of confidence. I really like Bubba this year again but he can throw his toys out if things don't start well so he can't be classed as a rock solid e/w contender - as his recent record of 38, 1, 50, 1, 38 would attest to - and nor can anybody else.
 
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wilsonl said:
It doesn't matter whether you are getting 40 places in National if your horse falls or is BD. Either way your double goes the way of Jim Best's training career.

Plus simple maths, there are 89 golfers in the Masters with players as far down the list as Kaymer and G Mac not being out of it, that's something like 40+ genuine runners. Seven of the last 10 Masters winners had an SP of 20/1 or higher. Only Spieth last year and Mickelson (2006 and 2010) went off shorter.

This is about the only golf tournament that I've made profit from in recent times but it still cannot be approached with any degree of confidence. I really like Bubba this year again but he can throw his toys out if things don't start well so he can't be classed as a rock solid e/w contender - as his recent record of 38, 1, 50, 1, 38 would attest to - and nor can anybody else.
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Don't over think it. Either way is good but 6 places in the National is so much better than 5.

9 of the last 13 majors have been won by players in the top eight in the world rankings. That's 59% which is just below where you would expect this figure to be. To suggest the Masters is more difficult than the National is not correct. There may be 89 runners but not only can 30+ of them not win another 20+ can't place.
 
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Of course it is but 8 places in the Masters is so much better than 6 ;)

Given the number of contenders in each, the two concessions (5 places + 8 places or 6 + 6) are pretty similar to be fair so it comes down to personal preference and where your confidence lies and mine is the former.
 
wilsonl said:
Of course it is but 8 places in the Masters is so much better than 6 ;)

Given the number of contenders in each, the two concessions (5 places + 8 places or 6 + 6) are pretty similar to be fair so it comes down to personal preference and where your confidence lies and mine is the former.
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It comes down to price. For the 8 places to be in your favour you can't give up much on price so don't back 50/1 shots that are 80 on the machine. Stick to the front of the market on the selections they are forced to be competitive on. I'd just e/w double Jason Day 13/2 with half the the National field!
 
wilsonl said:
I really like Bubba this year again but he can throw his toys out if things don't start well so he can't be classed as a rock solid e/w contender - as his recent record of 38, 1, 50, 1, 38 would attest to - and nor can anybody else.
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Tweet:

Todd Lewis ‏@ToddLewisGC 9h9 hours ago
Tough day for @bubbawatson who spent most of the day in bed battling a sinus infection and did not make it to Augusta National.
 
Totally agree with that logic but Adam Scott heads the Fedex standings following an superb start to the season, has one of the best and most consistent Masters records of the past 5 years with his worst position in those years coming last year when he slipped to 38th over the last two days but he'd posted the same score through 36 as he had when he won it 2 years earlier and a better 36 hole score then he had two years before that when he came second.

His 8 places prices with SkyBet is the equal of any other bookie and matches the exchanges. Bubba may be my idea of the winner but for the above and reasons alluded to earlier re the Yank's propensity to throw the towel in Scott is probably the best option for e/w doubles.

Saint Are has a great Aintree record at this time of year, likes to race up with the pace so should avoid any potential carnage and as we know is weighted to go very close on last year's running. A win last time out will have done no harm and he's the other leg for me as I can see him finishing in the first 5/6 without being quite good enough yet again but the win part is certainly no forlorn hope.

SkyBet are also top priced about him so the cash is down on the 12/1 & 16/1 e/w double.
 
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