The 2020 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
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I don't see the old thread so hope it's OK to start a new one.

The only rule is that 20/1 or better must be available at the time of posting.

There have been a few longshots going in at Newmarket, defying form logic. It looks like frontrunners have a strong bias in the conditions so I'm having a go at another later today.

5.55 Saaheq 25/1 - I got an alert last night for Gunmetal but at the time it was something like 11/2. I didn't bother too much about it but it was 7/2 tops when I checked it this morning and it's now about 5/2 so I can definitely let it go. Another prominent runner in the race, though, is Saaheq so I'm hoping that known form can be thrown to the tailwind and that he'll outrun his odds but I should emphasise that this is no more than a wild hope.
 
5:20 Stone Circle looks a huge price at 20/1 for Michael Bell and Fallon. He's been given a fair-enough opening handicap mark and Fallon claims the three. I can only imagine he's such a big price because of the competative nature of the race though he can make odds of 20/1 look way too big.

I genuinely think he can finish in the first three.
 
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I think Pinatubo will run away with the Guineas but I've backed an outsider each-way just in case.

For me, Mum's Tipple is 'way overpriced at 33/1 and 40/1. He was sensational in his sales race win in a very good time and Hannon has a knack of producing longshots to run well in - and even win - Guineas.

I intended putting him up at 20/1 without Pinatubo as that price was available last night but I don't see it anywhere this morning.
 
Al Suhail (20/1) ew for me in the Guineas; The booking of Charle Appleby's goto second string suggest he's more than just a makeweight.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think Pinatubo will run away with the Guineas but I've backed an outsider each-way just in case.

For me, Mum's Tipple is 'way overpriced at 33/1 and 40/1. He was sensational in his sales race win in a very good time and Hannon has a knack of producing longshots to run well in - and even win - Guineas.

I intended putting him up at 20/1 without Pinatubo as that price was available last night but I don't see it anywhere this morning.
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Dammit. I've only just noticed 33/1 is available to four places. I'd have preferred that to 40s and three places so I've gone in again.
 
Newmarket 2:25 Sunday

Currently 16's but hopefully we might get 20/1 sooner or later about Protected Guest in this. He improved last season running over different distances between 10F and 14F. First start this season where he drops to 10F. He will stay well enough. It wouldn't surprise me if he ran closer to the pace tomorrow. A cracking each way chance.
 
Doncaster 3:25 Kings Pavillon is good value on the likely soft ground at 25/1. He has won seven races, plus over 100 grand in prize money over the past few seasons and still on a competative mark. Getting his favoured cut in the ground might just be the key to it.

A market move could be a good sign, although I doubt my fifty quid each way will make much of a difference. :)
 
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I'm forced to change my approach to racing these days so anything I put up is as much guesswork and wishful thinking as smart reading, reflected in minimal stakes.

Only two selections so far and both beaten, neither really trying to my eye, especially Mum's Tipple last week who was dropped out contention very early in the race and never asked a question.

However, I've been nibbling away to small stakes in other races recently and doing pretty well if I may say so myself. I won't insult anyone's intelligence by aftertiming names but I'd hope people know me well enough to know I wouldn't say I was doing well if I wasn't.

I'll be nibbling at a few today but they don't qualify for this thread other than Royal Nation 28/1 in the 3.00 at Newbury.

Archie Watson is impressing me as a shrewdie and Hollie Doyle as a jockey. They combine here and the price appeals. The concerns are that it's weak so maybe today isn't the day and only two places are now available but I'm happy enough to play at long odds. Fingers etc crossed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll be nibbling at a few today but they don't qualify for this thread other than Royal Nation 28/1 in the 3.00 at Newbury.

Archie Watson is impressing me as a shrewdie and Hollie Doyle as a jockey. They combine here and the price appeals. The concerns are that it's weak so maybe today isn't the day and only two places are now available but I'm happy enough to play at long odds. Fingers etc crossed.
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28/1 to two places is now available without the fav (Cabaletta) so I've gone in again.
 
It will be interesting to see what kind of mark-up she gets for that. I was pleased that she took a couple of lengths off the field out of the traps but after that when she just bolted clear I gave up on her by half-way. Rallied well for a furlong but the damage was done.
 
In this 3.15 Sandown race I'd planned to back Exec Chef but he was a nice price this morning. He isn't now so I've dumped him in favour of Elegant Light 33/1 ew. Hornby has an excellent record for Beckett this season and appears to prefer this one to the better-handicapped stablemate.
 
Serious non-trier. Shocking display from the jockey.

I'll be kind and assume the filly wasn't letting herself down and he was looking after her but it didn't look at all good, giving away ground at the start and going exaggeratedly wide round the turn before easing down.
 
Royal Ascot is usually a good meeting for longer odds than they should be so I'm hoping I can latch on to one or two of them through the week.

First up today is in the first race and I've found two against the field in the welcome return of the 7f handicap.

First Contact 20/1 - The last time this one ran in a handicap it was off 100 and was a very clear-cut winner before moving up in class. Back down to 105, he'd have won that handicap off this mark and I don't think Godolphin would be pitching him in here if they didn't think he could go very close. This is my main bet in the race but again I need to stress that I can't study any form so there is guesswork involved.

Shelir 33/1 - They could have taken this one out to let in first-reserve stablemate So Beloved, very well-handicapped on his best form, but Tudhope was already engaged and they're relying on this one. I think I'm right in saying this is an ex-Weld horse whose recent run might just have been to sharpen him up for this so I'm hopeful that the trainer brings out similar kind of improvement has he can do with horses bought, say, from France.
 
Next up is the Queen Anne at 1.50.

Accidental Agent did the biz for the thread a couple of years ago and went up to 116 for it. That rating would put him in the mix here. He's been largely disappointing since but was close to it first time up last season. He was gelded at the back-end (where else, I suppose) and it's possible that this, ironically, might make a man of him! At up to 100/1 and extra places and odds boosts on offer, why not?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Shelir 33/1 - They could have taken this one out to let in first-reserve stablemate So Beloved, very well-handicapped on his best form, but Tudhope was already engaged and they're relying on this one. I think I'm right in saying this is an ex-Weld horse whose recent run might just have been to sharpen him up for this so I'm hopeful that the trainer brings out similar kind of improvement has he can do with horses bought, say, from France.
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Didn't realise I'd missed this race but I see Shelir got a place. Outlay covered. Reasonable start.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Next up is the Queen Anne at 1.50.

Accidental Agent did the biz for the thread a couple of years ago and went up to 116 for it. That rating would put him in the mix here. He's been largely disappointing since but was close to it first time up last season. He was gelded at the back-end (where else, I suppose) and it's possible that this, ironically, might make a man of him! At up to 100/1 and extra places and odds boosts on offer, why not?
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Stole 92+/1 to five places Accidental Agent so got the single return but missed out on the place double with Shelir with only four places going in the bet.
 
In this Ribblesdale I've taken 40/1 to four places West End Girl.

I thought she got very unbalanced at Lingfield and can finish pretty close to the Yoda filly.
 
Managed to get 20/1 Tis Marvellous to 3 places without Battaash and would have expected him to be shorter than that in the full market.
 
And Cliffs Of Dooneen probably shouldn't be as long as he is. Won off higher in Ireland a couple of years ago but trainer has been cold.
 
Can't resist some 150/1 (6pl) and 200/1 (4pl) Carntop. Stamina is a serious doubt but there's back-class there.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot Stakes - Rochester House 25/1 to six places seems reasonable.
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I'll take that. Race outlay covered.

Cliffs Of Dooneen just missed out on the place money in seventh dammit and Carntop loomed very dangerously two out. As I suspected might happen, he fell in a hole at that point.

Good runs from longshots.
 
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