The 2020 Longshot Thread

Leo 2.20 Daybreak Boy 50/1, 5pl - Second at 33/1 in this race last year with an unknown 7lb claimer up and is a big price because of its poor subsequent form. Turns up again with another unknown 7lb claimer aboard (but with three places from seven rides for the trainer) and is 6lbs better off for one and a half lengths with the winner who is only 9/1. No surprise if it's been aimed at this race since the end of last season and at the price I can afford to pay a little to find out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Leo 2.20 Daybreak Boy 50/1, 5pl - Second at 33/1 in this race last year with an unknown 7lb claimer up and is a big price because of its poor subsequent form. Turns up again with another unknown 7lb claimer aboard (but with three places from seven rides for the trainer) and is 6lbs better off for one and a half lengths with the winner who is only 9/1. No surprise if it's been aimed at this race since the end of last season and at the price I can afford to pay a little to find out.
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Reasonable performance, four lengths off fifth place at 125/1.
 
Commander of Fleet - 25/1 Leop 12:40)

He was good enough to finish second to Minella Indo in a Bartlett just a couple of years back, with Allaho and subsequent Stayers winner Lisnagar Oscar behind. He was therafter sent off second-fave behind Allaho for the 3m G1 novice at Punchestown (backed to reverse form with MI), but was quickly pulled-up after a mile - presumably going amiss, as he then had 18 months off.

He returned in a reasonably-hot beginners chase at Navan five weeks ago, quickly losing his position after a series of errors, and trailing home last of the bunch behind Janadil, and runs today in this Pertemps qualifier off 148, with a claimer knocking 5lbs off.

I have to think this one is ahead of his mark, and if he’s off, he can definitely outrun odds of 20/1. Just depends on whether today is the day, as it’s only a twenty grand race, and they might look to exploit something a bit more lucrative in the spring.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Commander of Fleet - 25/1 Leop 12:40)

...

and runs today in this Pertemps qualifier off 148, with a claimer knocking 5lbs off.

I have to think this one is ahead of his mark, and if he’s off, he can definitely outrun odds of 20/1. Just depends on whether today is the day, as it’s only a twenty grand race, and they might look to exploit something a bit more lucrative in the spring.
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I haven't checked the race or the horse but suspect qualification for the sake of keeping options open might be more likely. To win today off 148 would close a lot of doors [in handicaps] as he could end up hiked into the mid-150s in the UK at least whereas a qualifying defeat might see him down a pound or two.

Tough call but the price might compensate.
 
I had a small Win bet at 34 and a slightly bigger ew bet at 25’s, DO - as a just-in-case job.

You fears reflect mine, namely they’ll probably have a bigger pot in mind. Regardless, it was hopefully worth the effort to get him in the tracker, as my initial inclination was to dismiss the race as an unfathomable mess! :lol:
 
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Grasshopper said:
Commander of Fleet - 25/1 Leop 12:40)

He was good enough to finish second to Minella Indo in a Bartlett just a couple of years back, with Allaho and subsequent Stayers winner Lisnagar Oscar behind. He was therafter sent off second-fave behind Allaho for the 3m G1 novice at Punchestown (backed to reverse form with MI), but was quickly pulled-up after a mile - presumably going amiss, as he then had 18 months off.

He returned in a reasonably-hot beginners chase at Navan five weeks ago, quickly losing his position after a series of errors, and trailing home last of the bunch behind Janadil, and runs today in this Pertemps qualifier off 148, with a claimer knocking 5lbs off.

I have to think this one is ahead of his mark, and if he’s off, he can definitely outrun odds of 20/1. Just depends on whether today is the day, as it’s only a twenty grand race, and they might look to exploit something a bit more lucrative in the spring.
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Got entered up in a Pertemps qualifier in Carlisle a couple of weeks ago, clearly fishing for a mark. I asked the books for a price for the Pertemps and he was put in the market at 20s.

Seen since he’s 25s in a any race market i think with SkyBet, I took that price.

I’d be fairly confident today won’t be the day, and March will be the likely target.
 
Strikes me as an embryonic chaser, Grass, which made a pig's ear of his debut, so they're running him in a hurdle, over a more suitable distance, to get his confidence back.
Could have guessed entirely wrong; luck to you, if you haven't.
 
Might be right, reet, though hurdle mark very workable, imo.

Committed now (in a small way) - will see how it goes.
 
Hope so. Entered him last year as one of my TTF then he was ruled of for the season. A horse I’ve had my eye on this season, and I was not at all suprised to see him entered in a Pertemps qualifier, as I also think is hurdle mark is massively exploitable.

I’ll be watching the race closely, and ride into 6th would soon see him well found in the market.
 
COF is listed as a possible entry for a couple of the festival chases so maybe they think they can afford to win this. He carries the first colours. I might stick 50p sickness insurance on him :D

I have taken 20/1 Heroes Of Renown in the same race.

He was a tenderly-ridden fifth, not far behind The Big Getaway, in a very decent maiden hurdle last season, rated 140 on RPRs for it. TBG went on to hack up next time (RPR only 1lb higher that HOR's race) before again running well at the festival and earn a mark in the mid-150s. Heroes Of Renown gets in today off 125 and will probably need to win to get into any decent handicap at Cheltenham.
 
Nearly missed the hurdle race today as, just as we were leaving Adam Nicol brought one of the three horses he trains down to the beach for a canter so we stayed to watch. He had a 66/1 surprise 2nd with Wise Eagle the other day, annoyingly on a day when I wasn’t checking the race cards. Worth keeping an eye on his runners as the beach must have rejuvenated Wise Eagle.
 
Newbury 2.40 Commodore Barry 22/1 - two disappointing runs on good ground this season require forgiving but he might get back on track today as he's well handicapped relative to his hurdles form. Bailey-Bass still in good form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 2.40 Commodore Barry 22/1 - two disappointing runs on good ground this season require forgiving but he might get back on track today as he's well handicapped relative to his hurdles form. Bailey-Bass still in good form.
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Kim Bailey has a slight concern about the ground, but thinks he’ll run well if he handles it.
 
Cheers, barjon. Either the trainer or jockey reported last time the horse didn't like the [good] ground and would appreciate some ease :blink:
 
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