The 2020 Longshot Thread

Granted, Danny! Come back tomorrow!

I backed three in that Britannia: 2nd, 3rd & 4th. So glad I didn't back the trifecta. I'd be pig sick at the result :lol:
 
Well done DO. I was on ew Cherokee too and also backed the winner.
Best Ascot for me for many a year so far. And typically there’s no tipping competition!
 
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This one will probably raise some eyebrows...

In the Hardwicke I managed to get 100/1 Eagles By Day and I'm hopeful of a place at least. This time last year he was less than five lengths behind Japan in the King Edward, a big step forward on his Derby trial form, in softish ground. He bombed on his only subsequent start three weeks later at the July Meeting but that was on fast ground, might have come too soon and he reportedly burst a blood vessel. The worst case scenario is that he had a valid excuse for a poor run. He's obviously got a long absence to overcome but Michael Bell is no mug and Tudhope is an interesting booking.

It's possible this is the first step towards something like the Ebor but at the price in a race with plenty of questions marks over the principals, I'm happy to risk some fun money.

In the same race, I think Desert Encounter should be a fraction of the 100/1 on offer so I'm on this one too.

I might even try the forecast :lol::lol:
 
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On the phone yesterday I was talking to the brother about Highland Chief winning and I said if I'd checked the race closely enough I'd probably have backed it because it was trained by Paul Cole. A couple of years back I put up Duke Of Hazzard at 25/1 for the Chesham (finished 3rd) for the simple reason that Cole just doesn't send horses to Royal Ascot unless he really thinks they can justify the entry. I completely overlooked the fact that Cole trained Highland Chief otherwise would certainly have had at least a saver on it.

Cole has another relatively rare runner today in Valpolicella in the Albany. I wouldn't otherwise be interested in the race but I've taken the 20/1.
 
In the 4.40 I've taken 66/1 to 5 places about Byron Flyer.

I suspect the ground has gone against him but it might also help him stamina-wise and he had a couple of smart runs last season off higher marks in good handicaps. Obviously not my main bet in the race, just a wee value punt in case he isn't inconvenienced too much by the conditions.
 
With Byron Flyer out, I've had another look for a longshot and landed on Dolphin Vista at 66/1 to five places.

The ground is a big plus for him but this is his first try at the trip. There aren't many points in his dosage but he's got Blushing Groom a few generations back on both sides. It's his first run for Jim Boyle and he might be the type of horse that responds to a change of scenery as he hit form early in his time with his previous trainer. It's also possible this is a prep for something like the Magnet Cup, assuming it will be run, but he's got form in higher class races in soft ground so who knows?
 
Go on Des I'm making a bit of a comeback for one day only and got a couple for your thread bearing in mind the last bet I launched was the 2019 Scottish Nash and have barely watched a race since also bearing in mind I've been on the sauce tonight :)

Silver Woke Sir Maximillian 50/1
The Woke Recon Mission 50/1

£10 e/w double


Some sort of explanation to follow I just need another drink.


So Sir Maximillian obviously doesn't strike us at 11yo as having much up his sleeve which is a fair enough comment and yes he'll probably be available at 100's tomorrow but patients was never one of my virtues and patients when slightly tipsy even less so. However, I can sort of make a half decent case for him to throw in a decent effort. Won 2 of his 6 starts last year off marks of 92 and 91 and tomorrow he's off 93. Ran pretty big races in a couple of his other tries last year. Won over 6f at the beginning of last season and signed off with a win over 7f around the Roodee on ground officially given as good but looked a tad softer, and in doing so put up a figure that was fairly decent. Last year raced off a higher mark in the actual Wokingham and although finishing well down the field he was firstly in the wrong place on track and secondly got stopped in his run a couple of times so the run wasn't really as bad as it looked. I think the combination of 6f on a stiff track on softer ground will be ideal and although the not the most likely winner he will certainly outrun his price and it wouldn't surprise me at all with a bit of luck in running if he hits the frame. I'm not really too concerned about his age as we've seen a fair few sprinters down the years who just seemingly hold there form well into their twilight years.


In the actual Woke I thought it a brave man to lay 50's about Recon Mission. Won a real decent handicap at york off a mark of 97 over 6f on good to soft. Disappointed next time out but then went on to run a cracker behind Stone of destiny and Danzeno over 5f furlongs here on better ground. Given how well he'd seen out 6f on softer ground at York it could certainly be seen that the 5f on faster ground wouldn't have been ideal. Both of those opponents are shorter in price and worse off at the weights. Recon has had a run to blow off the cobwebs and back to 6f on a softer surface on a track that seemingly suited he could be capable of a big performance and at the price is worth taking the chance.

I'm on at 5 places 1/4 odds so I make that around £1800 for a pair of 5th place finishers and that's before sir max drifts to 100's so it has to be worth a score.





Last Edit: 11 minutes ago by broadsword
 
Cheers, Danny, and, like Stradivarius, I hope you stay well. :)

I'm pretty sure I put up Sir Maximilian for last year's Wokingham or some other mega-handicap. It's certainly on my list of Wokingham bets so I'll probably be following you in for the same reasons as you state. Sickness insurance at the very least!
 
Our jonesy 410 40/1

Finished 9th last year off 107 and now off 99.
Started at 17/2 last year but nothing else to recommend him.
Finished 22/23 over 7 fur on tuesday.
 
Outsider said:
Our jonesy 410 40/1

Finished 9th last year off 107 and now off 99.
Started at 17/2 last year but nothing else to recommend him.
Finished 22/23 over 7 fur on tuesday.
Click to expand...

You'd have to be hoping the 1st time blinkers revive him a bit. Good to see you still at it mate. Best of luck.
 
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Outsider said:
Our jonesy 410 40/1

Finished 9th last year off 107 and now off 99.
Started at 17/2 last year but nothing else to recommend him.
Finished 22/23 over 7 fur on tuesday.
Click to expand...

Came to the same conclusion last night, Outsider. Will be joining you. Hey Jonesy, by the way :)
 
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In the 12.40 Ascot I've nibbled at Flavius Titus at 40/1 to 6 places (50s available to fewer places). At the weights he's roughly the same horse as 9/2 shot Swindler and 14/1 shot Louie De Palma, and he'd put Summerghand 2lbs lower than his mark in the big race, for which he's a single-figure price. The negatives are that he was disappointing last back-end and the owner dumped him so his price is a reflection of those negatives. However, I'm happy to accept his debut at Newmarket was a pipe-opener for this and give him a chance to show his true form, in which case he'd be hard to beat, and he has a peach of a draw in 22.
 
I was prepared to back Thread this morning at 10/1 for the sake of an interest despite wanting to see Pinatubo win in the style of Stradivarius but he's now 20/1 and that qualifies him for the thread. I also took 6/1 for a top-two finish. I read that they deliberately avoided Newmarket to keep him fresh for this.
 
Last throw of the dice for the meeting...

Dazzling Dan 28/1 to six places (33s to fewer places available) in the Wokingham (to add to Hey Jonesy 40/1 & 50s). Well punted last time but didn't really get competitive. I have him as an improver and he'll probably need to be to win but the trainer is no mug.
 
What a good way to close out the meeting.

This thread returns a huge priced winner in Hey Jonesy.

Well done Outsider and Desert Orchid.

I am sure a few followed you in.
 
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