The 2020 Longshot Thread

barjon said:
fwiw here’s the morning bulletin:

CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY
Nicky Henderson
He has an excellent record first time out so we have deliberately kept him fresh for this race and I hope the Trevor Hemming’s luck continues for another week after the likes of Cloth Cap et al and while this is quite ambitious he has some very good form and I think there could still be plenty left for him to give. His work has been very good, as has his jumping, and while I’m not a betting man I certainly wouldn’t put you off backing him each way.
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I shudder when I hear Hemmings name with what that fraud is doing to my football club.
 
MILITARIAN 150 50/1 I suppose the younger horses should beat him over this trip but I could see him bowl along in front and .....
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've added Banatar 20/1 to my bets (Massey-Ferguson/Caspian).

He was on my radar for the Mackeson but didn't run. Some of his old form is smart: beat Finian's Oscar and was third despite finishing lame to Shattered Love in the JLT, an two seasons back seemd not to stay 3m when a good third trying to give weight to Valtor before being burst by Cyrname in receipt of just 1lb.

The stable is now in form and Benatar is down to 142, when he should have been making up into a mid-high second season chaser back then but he was taking on Politologue, Valtor and Cyrname.

If he's fresh, fit and well he's no 20/1 shot.
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The place return won't cover all my bets in the race but he ran very well considering he pulled the whole way just behind the pace. Great return performance but might want time to recover.

Incredible winner. Well done all who found him. I had him as a +p horse but couldn't have anticipated that. My main bet ended up being Midnight Shadow, win only :(
 
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Dundee Utd 25/1 at home today against Stevie G's Govania Galacticos.

I'm not saying United will win this, just that the price is all wrong. No team in Scotland should be 25/1 at home against any team, not even Barcelona.

I would have United in the 10/1-12/1 bracket. The visitors are taking full advantage of Celtic's form slump and unrest behind the scenes but I've seen them a few times and they are ordinary. They've had lots of help from sympathetic officials but they're a team full of has-beens and loanees who can't get a game at their parent club.

They have also carried lots of luck and strike me as a bubble waiting to burst.

Since the last time the two sides clashed (Ibrox 12 Sep, 4-0) United have proved quite stuffy, losing only to Livingston (twice, 1-2 and 2-0) but Livi are a very pragmatic outfit under Gary Holt. United aren't prolific scorers either so I expect them to try and thwart their opponents and hope to hit on the counter.

The visitors will probably win but I can't see them scoring any more than two (and it's even money -statistically - that one of them will be a penalty) so I'm happy to take some of the 25/1 about an upset.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Dundee Utd 25/1 at home today against Stevie G's Govania Galacticos.

...

The visitors are taking full advantage of Celtic's form slump and unrest behind the scenes but I've seen them a few times and they are ordinary. They've had lots of help from sympathetic officials but they're a team full of has-beens and loanees who can't get a game at their parent club.

They have also carried lots of luck and strike me as a bubble waiting to burst.
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St Mirren 3 Rangers 2

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Losing to St Mirren can't be as bad as finding out the the following day that the king of reggae Bob Marley was a Celtic fan. Disasters normally come in threes, so another administration is surely round the corner! :lol:
 
Don't know about fans of the club currently housed at Ibrox but most Celtic fans have known since the guy was alive that BM was a Hoops fanatic.

As for the third disaster, people (including myself) have been predicting it for long enough but somebody behind the scenes is propping the club up financially. They've even come clean with the tax people that they can't pay their due taxes and have agreed an ongoing long-term payment plan. I'm told they're paying a million a month to buy time for Europa League money to come in.

What's very sad is that they are being aided and abetted by the Celtic Board who made it clear at the AGM last week that the blue pound is very important for their own business plan. I find this quite strange as there's no way the Ibrox board were stepping in when we were on the verge of bankruptcy until The Bunnet stepped in and saved us.

Still, they have now cracked and it will be interesting to see how/if they recover. They were being heralded as credible challengers at this point last season but in the new year hit the same run of form as we're just emerging (hopefully...) from.

The league table could look quite different at the end of January.
 
Asc 1.50 Gardefort 28/1 4pl - The handicapper has taken a huge chance with Gardefort. He’s obviously had his problems but seven runs back he was rated 145 and running well. He’s been ridden by claimers a lot so the booking of Deutsch first time up after a year and half off might point to expectations of a good performance.
 
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Grasshopper mentioned this one on another thread last night and it's worth putting up here.

Asc 3.35 Night Edition 20/1 6pl (boostable) - this is one of my cover bets in the race. Night Edition was the only UK horse to get in among the Irish in the Fred Winter after coming from much further back than any of them. I think Scu overdid the waiting tactics that day, perhaps over-confident of winning. He was engaged in other good races before now so it’s maybe interesting that they’ve kept him back for this, the most valuable handicap hurdle of the season so far.

In the same race Cormier 40/1 - I put this up for the Greatwood on the basis of a big figure on its previous start (which might be wrong) but I'm not convinced it ran its race that day. It was 50s in places last night and I was holding off for the offers this morning but by the time I got round to backing it 40/1 was the best price and it's blue across the board and generally 33/1.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Asc 1.50 Gardefort 28/1 4pl - The handicapper has taken a huge chance with Gardefort. He’s obviously had his problems but seven runs back he was rated 145 and running well. He’s been ridden by claimers a lot so the booking of Deutsch first time up after a year and half off might point to expectations of a good performance.
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Apparently Venetia Williams has arranged for 15 of her staff to share ownership of this horse for the day. They were to have a ballot for who got to go by to Ascot as owner but have decided they’ll all watch on TV together. As Herefordshire is in Tier 1 now I guess that doesn’t flout the COVID rules


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viking said:
Apparently Venetia Williams has arranged for 15 of her staff to share ownership of this horse for the day. They were to have a ballot for who got to go by to Ascot as owner but have decided they’ll all watch on TV together. As Herefordshire is in Tier 1 now I guess that doesn’t flout the COVID rules


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Yeah, what a great idea. I think the syndicate is 30 of her staff and there’s a ballot to send 2 of them to the races when one of the two horses run. The other one is Tango de Juillet.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Asc 1.50 Gardefort 28/1 4pl - The handicapper has taken a huge chance with Gardefort. He’s obviously had his problems but seven runs back he was rated 145 and running well. He’s been ridden by claimers a lot so the booking of Deutsch first time up after a year and half off might point to expectations of a good performance.
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33/1 with the BOG. Happy enough with that.
 
Decided to take another in the 3.35 Ascot. Master Debonair 40/1. I originally ignored it because of the 7lb claimer but he's been placed in 8/18 rides for Tizzard and isn't far off the top of my figures.
 
Jeremiah McGrath is trundling all the way to Fakenham today for the one ride on 50/1 shot Elyaqim in the 3:20. He might just be going for the jolly since Henderson/Nico also has one in the race (only runner there) but you never know.
 
I’ve given up on Master Debonair. I even backed him for Cheltenham after reading rave reviews coming from the stable. Big disappointment.
 
I plan to start a new Longshot Thread on New Year's Day and just in case this is my final pop for the year, I might as well try and go out on a massive high...

I've backed Glasgow's big two teams both to lose their boxing Day fixtures in a double that amounts to 431/1 (35/1 Hamilton at home to beat Celtic and 11/1 Hibs to win at Ibrox).

Hamilton are no great shakes but Celtic tend to struggle for fluency on artificial pitches. The Hoops are back in winning form and playing some lovely stuff but the defensive vulnerabilities are still there to be exploited. Another difficult afternoon for the quadruple treble champions is far from out of the question.

Jack Ross is shaping up as one of the most promising young managers around and I wouldn't be in the least surprised if he is near the top of the Celtic board's shopping list should they decide they need a new manager (they do). Hibs arguably should have beaten Celtic recently and, as I keep saying, Gerrard's side is a bubble waiting to burst. They were extremely lucky again midweek.

I'd have Hamilton closer to 14/1 and Hibs closer to 5/1 so it's still 1/89 that I won't collect but I'm getting closer to 5 times my idea of the true odds. That's like getting 25/1 about a 5/1 shot.

Of course, the optimum scenario for me is a big win for Celtic and Gerrard's team to drop at least two points.
 
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