The 2020 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
On Friday at Cheltenham, Dolos 6/1 and Court Maid 11/4 offer the best-priced double of 25.25/1. I reckon it should be no more than 8/1.
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Dolos has a chance, I’d be swaying to one of Hendos horses though. But I hate Mister Fisher.

Court Maid is a great bet and a great price.
 
Maxbet said:
So you're saying they should both be 2/1....you can have 28/1 if you shop about
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Yes. I took 6/1 and 3/1 individually last night but the best-odds double was 6s x 11/4.

It's the kind of discussion Slim and I used to enjoy when it came to the idea of only mug punters backing doubles and trebles, etc.

If memory serves, we agreed that if you're beating the true odds with each single you're multiplying the value with the double.

The above example is a case in point although if I feel the true odds against the double are 8/1 it's still 1/8 that I won't collect.

That's like backing a Hendo shortie... :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes. I took 6/1 and 3/1 individually last night but the best-odds double was 6s x 11/4.

It's the kind of discussion Slim and I used to enjoy when it came to the idea of only mug punters backing doubles and trebles, etc.

If memory serves, we agreed that if you're beating the true odds with each single you're multiplying the value with the double.

The above example is a case in point although if I feel the true odds against the double are 8/1 it's still 1/8 that I won't collect.

That's like backing a Hendo shortie... :)
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Compound the mistakes into the bastards...
 
Desert Orchid said:
In Saturday's Caspian Caviar (the Massey-Ferguson to me) I've taken 50/1 Ibis Du Rheu.

This is partly a hunch-punt, partly not wishing to miss the boat on one that I have high up my ratings table on old form.

I was holding off, hoping for 100/1 by the weekend but it looks like that ain't gonna happen as it has gone as blue as my gonads in Covid vaccine freezer. One bookie cut it from 50s to 25s as I was trying to back it.

It's an ex-Nicholls horse who came into chasing as a 147 hurdler in season '16-'17 after winning the Martin Pipe. It ended the season only 12/1 for UTPT's first Ultima. He then didn't show much in a few runs after nearly a year off but came back the following season to win a novice chase, taking him back up to 147 but lost his form again and was sold out of Nicholls's yard early last season but didn't run.

Now with Richard Hobson, he reappears off 135 and if the exchange odds are any guide this race is going to cut up quite a bit and there might be a doubt about four places being on offer by Saturday.

At the price, it's a hunch I'm happy to play.
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66/1 5 places william hill DO....
 
They're presuming he won't get in.

I've gone in again, just in case he does. Boosted to 75+/1.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
They're presuming he won't get in.

I've gone in again, just in case he does. Boosted to 75+/1.
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I'm in the Al Dancer camp, thought he was going Peterborough so swayed a bit towards Cepage, think 2nd place pays as much PM as Peterborough win!

He beat Master Tommytucker 2.5L comfortably first time out, giving away 6Lb. MT obviously has improved from that run, which wouldn't be unfair to afford the same comment to Al Dancer and he's 9b better off...no brainer of the highest order!
 
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Better ground and the fact Coole Cody probably won't get a soft lead are reason enough for me to be against him.
Windsor Avenue for me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Any reason why Al Dancer should beat Coole Cody, Maxbet?
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The stiffer track and a 6Lb pull for 3.5 lengths is a good starting point!!!

I also think that Sam got him racing way too early when he took on Saint Sonnet up the hill, he obviously thought Cody would come back and that he wasn’t the threat.
Despite getting racing way too early, Al Dancer was still able to muster up a determined effort, closing all the way to the line. The only horse that chased the lead to do that, the other finishers came from way back!

Allowing a horse an easy lead on soft ground is a foolish thing to do, especially an unexposed bottom weight. I can't see them letting that happen again. Sam will follow the lead on the inside, not too far off it, he now knows the horse stays, it's slightly further and a stiffer test, so this ought to give him the confidence to wait, and make the ground up coming down the hill, not up it!

The money came last time, don't see any reason why it won't again...4/1 fav on the off! :whistle:
 
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tiggers1972 said:
Better ground and the fact Coole Cody probably won't get a soft lead are reason enough for me to be against him.
Windsor Avenue for me.
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Why should the ground be a factor? Three of his top five RPRs are on good ground. Maybe he'll be better on better ground.

I don't think he got a soft lead last time. I think they couldn't go his pace. Why should that change tomorrow?

I'm not saying Coole Cody will win. I'm just saying he's maybe not getting full credit for that performance. He also lost several lengths with a blunder early in the race and was going away again near the line.

The loose Siruh Du Lac, normally a free-running pacemaker, couldn't get to him but was only a couple of lengths off him most of the way until finally getting past him on the turn for home. Coole Cody would have known another horse was there.

The horses that chased the pace didn't finish. Saint Sonnet was weakening when he fell. Simply The Betts dropped away several fences out. Happy Diva wasn't making any ground. The other placed horses came from midfield (Sky Pirate) and rear (Spiritofthegames and Kauto Riko).

I suggested at the time when people were saying the race fell apart that maybe Coole Cody made it fall apart. I stand by that. What might be different is that the better ground, rather than inconveniencing him, might help others stay closer but I'm not sure it will make that much difference.

I suspect maybe Coole Cody is now fulfilling potential he had hinted at in his younger days. As I said, that's not to say he will win but it will be no surprise to me if he does.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I suggested at the time when people were saying the race fell apart that maybe Coole Cody made it fall apart. I stand by that. What might be different is that the better ground, rather than inconveniencing him, might help others stay closer but I'm not sure it will make that much difference.
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Carrying bottom weight on bottomless ground is a massive plus, Cody is laden with stamina too...you may well be right DO...but the element of surprise has now been lost, that alone will close the gap!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Why should the ground be a factor? Three of his top five RPRs are on good ground. Maybe he'll be better on better ground.

I don't think he got a soft lead last time. I think they couldn't go his pace. Why should that change tomorrow?

I'm not saying Coole Cody will win. I'm just saying he's maybe not getting full credit for that performance. He also lost several lengths with a blunder early in the race and was going away again near the line.

The loose Siruh Du Lac, normally a free-running pacemaker, couldn't get to him but was only a couple of lengths off him most of the way until finally getting past him on the turn for home. Coole Cody would have known another horse was there.

The horses that chased the pace didn't finish. Saint Sonnet was weakening when he fell. Simply The Betts dropped away several fences out. Happy Diva wasn't making any ground. The other placed horses came from midfield (Sky Pirate) and rear (Spiritofthegames and Kauto Riko).

I suggested at the time when people were saying the race fell apart that maybe Coole Cody made it fall apart. I stand by that. What might be different is that the better ground, rather than inconveniencing him, might help others stay closer but I'm not sure it will make that much difference.

I suspect maybe Coole Cody is now fulfilling potential he had hinted at in his younger days. As I said, that's not to say he will win but it will be no surprise to me if he does.
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His 2 course wins were on bad ground, that's my reasoning.
 
Could well have been a freak result...was beaten 2.5l by Southfield Stone (level weight) over the same CD as the Paddy Power the race before. 2Lb would hardly seem enough to reverse that form on reflection!


Al Dancer 1st (banker)

Master Tommytucker..(2nd/3rd)
Saint Sonnet..(2nd/3rd)
Southfield Stone..(2nd/3rd)

Comb F/c and T/c
 
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Maxbet said:
Could well have been a freak result...was beaten 2.5l by Southfield Stone (level weight) over the same CD as the Paddy Power the race before. 2Lb would hardly seem enough to reverse that form on reflection!


Al Dancer 1st (banker)

Master Tommytucker..(2nd/3rd)
Saint Sonnet..(2nd/3rd)
Southfield Stone..(2nd/3rd)

Comb F/c and T/c
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Wot??

... no Cepage?

Wasn't that a cert the other day?

They said Senor El Betrutti was a freak result. One of the great things about the sport is that we're not dealing with machines. They're animals. They have good days and bad days. They improve, they decline.

As a number cruncher, I have Al Dancer ahead of Coole Cody in this race so I know what I'm looking at. However, assuming Al Dancer would be a very short favourite to beat Coole Cody in a match tomorrow my money would be on Coole Cody. The weight turnaround favours Al Dancer but my gut - and it's honestly not really much more than that - tells me Coole Cody will outstay Al Dancer from the last.

But they might still only be third and fourth...
 
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How about Champagne Mystery. Henderson thinks him “an exciting horse” (there’s a surprise :)) and he is one of those retained by Hemmings after his dispersal. He was set up for the 2m4f novice handicap at Cheltenham but he was badly hampered and his jumping let him down (for the first time) and he was pulled up. He’s had a wind operation since then. 20/1 and qualifies for longshot.
 
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Champagne Mystery was one of the first to catch my eye the other day but it was a very big price all through the week on the exchange and I presumed it wouldn't run. It only shortened up again when the decs were released.

Hard to know how to read those market signals but, as a second-season novice, he is one of several who could win if they make the notional improvement I like to allow them.
 
I backed Butte Montana 50’s in the 11.30 last night. He’s now a lot shorter but I assume that’s down to non runners. I know the stable think a lot of him but think the ground has gone against him today (I assume it’s soft/heavy?). Shouldn’t have been 50’s imo.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wot??

... no Cepage?

Wasn't that a cert the other day?
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I have never placed a "cert" Asterix adjacent to any horse....

If you recall, I was thinking Al was Going to run in the Peterborough.

Cepage has won well fresh will probably run well tomorrow...but like you, I have a gut for the Nicholl's crew too..
 
barjon said:
How about Champagne Mystery. Henderson thinks him “an exciting horse” (there’s a surprise :)) and he is one of those retained by Hemmings after his dispersal. He was set up for the 2m4f novice handicap at Cheltenham but he was badly hampered and his jumping let him down (for the first time) and he was pulled up. He’s had a wind operation since then. 20/1 and qualifies for longshot.
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Put up by yours truly in post #602 - nice to see some money for it.
 
fwiw here’s the morning bulletin:

CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY
Nicky Henderson
He has an excellent record first time out so we have deliberately kept him fresh for this race and I hope the Trevor Hemming’s luck continues for another week after the likes of Cloth Cap et al and while this is quite ambitious he has some very good form and I think there could still be plenty left for him to give. His work has been very good, as has his jumping, and while I’m not a betting man I certainly wouldn’t put you off backing him each way.
 
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