The 2021 Betfair Hurdle Sun February 21st Newbury

Slim said:
Ciel De Niege goes off fav if still on 139

Are my eyes broke, no Milkwood?
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Milkwoods in there.

Just about to post, JPs only runner, that should be a tip in itself.

I’ve liked Solo for this for a while. Sea Ducor is an interesting one for me, runner up to Master Mcshee last time. They must like him.
 
I'm going to go out on a limb, and say that JP will end-up buying one of the novices ahead of the race to complement Ciel De Neige.
 
Grasshopper said:
Betfair Hurdle and no exchange market up yet. Disgrace! :ninja:
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Probably waiting for the weights.

If penalties accrue after Jan 10th, I assume the weights will be out on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

I've had Solo in mind for this since his seasonal debut. It was so bad they needed to be working on getting his mark down. They might run him on Saturday in the Lanzarote just to get another 3-5lbs off him.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Probably waiting for the weights.

If penalties accrue after Jan 10th, I assume the weights will be out on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

I've had Solo in mind for this since his seasonal debut. It was so bad they needed to be working on getting his mark down. They might run him on Saturday in the Lanzarote just to get another 3-5lbs off him.
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What run would you want to back him on the basis of? I don't think he's hiding much.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Probably waiting for the weights.

If penalties accrue after Jan 10th, I assume the weights will be out on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

I've had Solo in mind for this since his seasonal debut. It was so bad they needed to be working on getting his mark down. They might run him on Saturday in the Lanzarote just to get another 3-5lbs off him.
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There’s usually a market as soon as Entries are made - though I susppose they’ve only just been released.

Have to agree with Slim on Solo. Just looks average to me.
 
Slim said:
What run would you want to back him on the basis of? I don't think he's hiding much.
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Not so much based on a specific run as on the trainer's MO.

While many people disagreed with it at the time, the handicapper allotted Solo a mark of 157 for the Adonis. I plan to check back on that form - I know it has worked out badly - and see how the sectionals went. Nicholls didn't appear to have a problem with it at the time and openly confirmed the horse as the best juvenile he'd had for a long time.

The previous year, Pic D'Orhy came over with a big reputation but ran moderately in the Triumph and the trainer went down the route of getting him handicapped for the Betfair Hurdle.

Both five-year-olds, they would have struggled in the Champion Hurdle, as horses of that age are wont to do, so the ultra-valuable Newbury race is the ideal target.

PDO started his UK career on 149, with Nicholls managing to get him to Newbury off 146 but the win was a narrow one. Those figures might seem close but 4yos are entitled to improve 10lbs into their second season.

Even if we assume Solo's 157 was 8lbs too high, he's now down to 144 and that could come down again if he runs modestly in the Lanzarote (PDO was campaigned at further ahead of Newbury).

With Irish horses highly unlikely to be allowed over, Solo can afford to come down several pounds as he's about seventh in the card at the moment with 24 runners max allowed. 130 was the bottom mark last year, with Irish runners in the race.

Whether I'll get the big price PDO was last year is another matter but I backed him ante-post at much shorter before going in again on the day with the BOG.

A similar scenario might occur here.

Needless to say, he won't be my only bet in the race!
 
Nope.

FWIW, it’s Llandinabo Lad. If he gets in here off 141 (current rating), I’d be very sweet on him. Big field and strong pace is what he needs......that, and Johnson to be claimed by Hobbs to ride something else.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Probably waiting for the weights.

If penalties accrue after Jan 10th, I assume the weights will be out on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

I've had Solo in mind for this since his seasonal debut. It was so bad they needed to be working on getting his mark down. They might run him on Saturday in the Lanzarote just to get another 3-5lbs off him.
Click to expand...

Solo is currently 32 on the machine, DO.
 
Grasshopper said:
Nope.

FWIW, it’s Llandinabo Lad. If he gets in here off 141 (current rating), I’d be very sweet on him. Big field and strong pace is what he needs......that, and Johnson to be claimed by Hobbs to ride something else.
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Looks an interesting contender.

It's a bit early for me to want to back anything but this horse is definately interesting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not so much based on a specific run as on the trainer's MO.

While many people disagreed with it at the time, the handicapper allotted Solo a mark of 157 for the Adonis. I plan to check back on that form - I know it has worked out badly - and see how the sectionals went. Nicholls didn't appear to have a problem with it at the time and openly confirmed the horse as the best juvenile he'd had for a long time.

The previous year, Pic D'Orhy came over with a big reputation but ran moderately in the Triumph and the trainer went down the route of getting him handicapped for the Betfair Hurdle.

Both five-year-olds, they would have struggled in the Champion Hurdle, as horses of that age are wont to do, so the ultra-valuable Newbury race is the ideal target.

PDO started his UK career on 149, with Nicholls managing to get him to Newbury off 146 but the win was a narrow one. Those figures might seem close but 4yos are entitled to improve 10lbs into their second season.

Even if we assume Solo's 157 was 8lbs too high, he's now down to 144 and that could come down again if he runs modestly in the Lanzarote (PDO was campaigned at further ahead of Newbury).

With Irish horses highly unlikely to be allowed over, Solo can afford to come down several pounds as he's about seventh in the card at the moment with 24 runners max allowed. 130 was the bottom mark last year, with Irish runners in the race.

Whether I'll get the big price PDO was last year is another matter but I backed him ante-post at much shorter before going in again on the day with the BOG.

A similar scenario might occur here.

Needless to say, he won't be my only bet in the race!
Click to expand...

I was on Ciege De Neige last year. The BSP of the winner still haunts me. 100/1.
 
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