The 2021 Betfair Hurdle Sun February 21st Newbury

I'm wary to critisize you DO, as I remember when you tipped the winner of this exact race last year for the same trainer/owner as Solo, Pic D'orhy wasn't it?

There's no doubt Solo would have an interesting each way chance. However, I wouldn't say a horse that finished 12th, 5th and 4th on his last three starts was a certainty for a race like this, but I guess that's stating the bleeding obvious.

Elsewhere, I hope Ballyandy comes out as the weights rising would suit my early fancy Mack The Man, not least because he's number 46th in the waiting list!
 
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While he did it easily, the subsequent form of the beaten horses in the Adonis is total garbage and they've been tailed off in class 4 maidens and the like.

I'd taken a big price for the Triumph about him before that run so had high hopes based on his French run before coming over but I ask myself what rating he'd get for this on all other runs if he hadn't put in that Adonis performance.

And I doubt it'd be as high as 141.

There are two ways of looking at the Triumph performance itself. One is that he didn't really handle the track and it is proving to be a decent renewal with Aspire Tower putting it up in open company and even the 4th home Navajo Pass since winning off 142 (albeit with a 7lb claim).

But then on the other hand he managed to beat four horses home, three of which were 100/1 and the other a 33/1 Mullins runner.

I wish you luck with it DO and I hope his price does collapse because he'd be a place lay for me if it did.
 
The Adonis sectionals put him in the same ball park as Song For Someone. I suspect that's why the handicapper put him on 157 for it.

If he's the donkey his subsequent form is making him out to be it's hard to imagine him even turning up at Newbury.

Nicholls has six (I think) likely to make the cut. If Cobden opts for something else my confidence will take a bit of a doing but that's all factored into the price, I suppose.
 
I've backed For Pleasure for the Supreme at 50s, just noticed that he has been left in with a Champion Hurdle entry. I'm not sure why Third Time Lucki is 8/1 for this, and For Pleasure is 25s. (He is receiving a pound for a 4l beating.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
The Adonis sectionals put him in the same ball park as Song For Someone. I suspect that's why the handicapper put him on 157 for it.

If he's the donkey his subsequent form is making him out to be it's hard to imagine him even turning up at Newbury.

Nicholls has six (I think) likely to make the cut. If Cobden opts for something else my confidence will take a bit of a doing but that's all factored into the price, I suppose.
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Do you think it was with one eye on this, why he tanked in the Triumph?
 
HawkWing said:
Do you think it was with one eye on this, why he tanked in the Triumph?
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I can't recall thinking it at the time so if I say, with hindsight, it's possible I'm open to accusations of backdating an opinion to suit the situation. There's certainly no mention of it in my immediate post-race notes but they were very bare at the time because my vision was very limited at the time (my eye op was the following week).

I do recall thinking when reading the Nicholls stable tour at the start of this season when he mentioned gelding the colt and starting "from scratch" that this race would probably be the aim. I then thought of what he'd said the previous season about PD'O and put two and two together, given it's the same owner.

Obviously there's a very big chance that I'm just letting my active imagination run riot with this horse but I'm having fun :)
 
Copied from my post on the Longshot thread...


I've landed on a 50/1 chance; Highway One o Two.

He was 3/3 in novice hurdles, culminating in a fairly impressive win in the Dovecote. That race is proving to offer much stronger form than the aforementioned Adonis with the third home Kid Commando taking the listed handicap at Ascot earlier this season off 136, the fourth home; Buzz running 3rd in the Welsh Champion before hosing up in an Ascot class 2 off 137 and then narrowly failing to back that up off 148 behind Not So Sleepy. Two places further back in 4th in that Not So Sleepy race was Benson, running off a mark of 137 having previously gone 3/3 so far this season, most recently with a listed handicap win at Ascot. Prior to that run of three successive wins Benson finished off last season by also running in the Dovecote - he finished 8th, 32 lengths behind Highway One o Two.

So of the Dovecote runners...

West Cork 2nd, beaten just over 4 lengths was highly thought by Skelton but hasn't run since
Kid Commando 3rd, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. Now rated 140
Buzz 4th, beaten 17 1/2 lengths. Entered here (also has a speculative entry in the Champion hurdle) off 152
Benson 7th, beaten 32 lengths. Now rated 137

That is strong form and entitles Highway One o Two to a mark in the region of high 140s at least and yet he gets in here off 141 and actually receives 11lb from Buzz having beaten him convincingly last time they met off levels. Buzz is currently fourth fav for this.

The downside - hence the price - is that he's had an aborted novice chase campaign after falling on debut (when fav to beat Hitman) and then unseating next time out.

His subsequent run over hurdles can surely be forgiven as they'd no doubt wanted to give him a confidence boosting run back over them before aiming to exploit a lenient mark.

He'll love the likely soft ground we get in February and 50/1 is a crazy price.
 
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SOLO. Two stable tour comment, Desert:

“We will start him off at Wincanton in the Elite Hurdle and go from there. He has been gelded during the summer. He was very good at Kempton in the Adonis, but he got lost a little bit round Cheltenham in the Triumph and he may have been over the top. He will improve this season as we have started from scratch with him.”

“His impressive win in the Adonis Hurdle caused us all to overreact a little, particularly as last season's juveniles might not have been a vintage bunch. He got a bit lost in the Triumph and was then flat out all the way in the Elite, but after being gelded he was like a tank at Wincanton and probably needed the run. He could face a tough season but he'll win a nice race somewhere if he comes down the handicap a few pounds. He wants a trip and soft ground but he also wants fences, which he'll be jumping next season.”
 
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wilsonl said:
I've landed on a 50/1 chance; Highway One o Two.

...

He'll love the likely soft ground we get in February and 50/1 is a crazy price.
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H102 was on my radar when I was doing the sectionals for the Adonis, for all the reasons you quote, wilsonl. I then forgot to check what he was up to this season although I was conscious that I'd seen him in a novice chase.

50/1 could be crazy if he runs.
 
wilsonl said:
Copied from my post on the Longshot thread...


I've landed on a 50/1 chance; Highway One o Two.

He was 3/3 in novice hurdles, culminating in a fairly impressive win in the Dovecote. That race is proving to offer much stronger form than the aforementioned Adonis with the third home Kid Commando taking the listed handicap at Ascot earlier this season off 136, the fourth home; Buzz running 3rd in the Welsh Champion before hosing up in an Ascot class 2 off 137 and then narrowly failing to back that up off 148 behind Not So Sleepy. Two places further back in 4th in that Not So Sleepy race was Benson, running off a mark of 137 having previously gone 3/3 so far this season, most recently with a listed handicap win at Ascot. Prior to that run of three successive wins Benson finished off last season by also running in the Dovecote - he finished 8th, 32 lengths behind Highway One o Two.

So of the Dovecote runners...

West Cork 2nd, beaten just over 4 lengths was highly thought by Skelton but hasn't run since
Kid Commando 3rd, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. Now rated 140
Buzz 4th, beaten 17 1/2 lengths. Entered here (also has a speculative entry in the Champion hurdle) off 152
Benson 7th, beaten 32 lengths. Now rated 137

That is strong form and entitles Highway One o Two to a mark in the region of high 140s at least and yet he gets in here off 141 and actually receives 11lb from Buzz having beaten him convincingly last time they met off levels. Buzz is currently fourth fav for this.

The downside - hence the price - is that he's had an aborted novice chase campaign after falling on debut (when fav to beat Hitman) and then unseating next time out.

His subsequent run over hurdles can surely be forgiven as they'd no doubt wanted to give him a confidence boosting run back over them before aiming to exploit a lenient mark.

He'll love the likely soft ground we get in February and 50/1 is a crazy price.
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I'd agree with you Wilson, also the last run over hurdles, he drifted like a barge on the day from 5's out to 11's I think .
The next day the trainer announced that there was a bug in the yard affecting a few of their runners.
 
Marb said:
Elsewhere, I hope Ballyandy comes out as the weights rising would suit my early fancy Mack The Man, not least because he's number 46th in the waiting list!
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I'm not convinced Ballyandy will come out.

NTD only has three entries and the other two will probably make the cut so he might want to keep them down as close to 10-0 as possible. Ballyandy looks better than ever this season and the trainer might fancy him to be competitive off 157.

All guesswork on my part, mind.
 
I'm about halfway through my initial trawl of the handicap.

The more I convince myself that the Adonis form last year isn't over-rated by much, if at all, the happier I am with my Solo bets.

However, as anticipated, a few others are already shaping up as very strong contenders should I be wrong about him.

I won't list them all here as I might want to get some bets on. Unfortunately, so far, the prices aren't exciting me but I will say that Metier looks a very worthy favourite as I have gone high with his Tolworth win. At 7/1 tops, though, I can leave him for now.

Another that I really like is around the 20/1 mark but I was hoping for 50s as I didn't think the radar would have picked it up but it obviously has, so I'll hold off for now and hope that the price eases off over the next couple of weeks. I'm happy to wait until the day unless it goes blue in the interim.

It's a hugely competitive race.
 
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Thyme White is my early fancy, although as ever you can make a case for half the field. I'd be mindful of the potential for an absolute bog as he was pulled when highly fancied for the Greatwood. Absolutely hosed in at Chepstow where he was good for more than the winning margin and the Pink'n has run two very respectable races since when following Botox Has in the Masterson and Floressa in the Gerry Fielden.

Whilst that result may not tell the true story of the race, with Thyme White unseating Cobden and Milkwood getting murdered in the process when both coming to stake their claim, I'd be confident there's still plenty of juice in his mark.
 
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SOLO got a mention in this week’s ‘Weights & Measures’ after dropping 3lb following his Lanzarote Hurdle 12th at the weekend.

The bare result was disappointing, but he moved through the race like a good horse to my eyes and just shaped like he didn’t stay in a contest that didn’t work out ideally. I’m sure there will be other days for him and Harry Cobden looked after him once his chance had gone.

Now 16lb lower than the 157-rating he was awarded after landing the Adonis last year, he’s looking well treated off his new mark and a big-field two-mile handicap hurdle looks the way to go with him – hence the inclusion in this list.

The same connections won this race last year with a similar type in Pic D’Orhy, so they could be aiming to repeat the trick and they may as well go pot hunting with Solo before he embarks on an inevitable chasing career
 
I found it interesting trying to read the trainers in the race.

Take Nicholls, for example.

Six entries, all guaranteed to make the cut, rated from 147 (Wild Max) down to 141 (Solo). Wild Max has seen his mark go up from 132, which was very likely to make the cut. Why blow that mark? Has he blown it? Friend Or Foe has gone up from 124 (so maybe needed to) to 141. Same questions. Christopher Wood is seemingly exposed as not up to winning a race of this nature off this kind of mark. Miranda went up 7lb for winning a mares' handicap and couldn't win off her new mark at Musselburgh. Could she have gone close off her old mark? Thyme White could have won last time which could have blown his mark (although the winner only went up 3lb).

Why enter six and blow the marks of five of them? At the same time, get another down from [a possibly dubious] 157 to 141?

Other trainers strike me as blowing their charges' marks too. Yet multiple winners have a decent record in the race.

Hendo sent out Buzz to run very well in a valuable race last time yet Mister Coffey had the brakes applied in his race. He also had Marie's Rock beaten at odds-on after declaring her to be as exciting as Epatante at the same stage of her career.


Who would have thought Ciel De Neige was still a maiden until taking a maiden hurdle last time at 1/6 thereby preserving his mark?

Chris Gordon has sent out Remiluc to run his socks off in this race twice but hasn't even entered him when he's back on the same mark as when a very close third last season. Instead he relies on H102 and the prolific Annual Evictus and maybe Mount Windsor.

It doesn't look like Skelton has been plotting any of his either.

I'm thinking myself into a tizzy now!
 
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Slim said:
The Fat Man can't help himself ruining marks winning egg and spoon races.
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But targeting a big one still isn't beyond him. Last year he also had TDM very close up in this race.

I'm imagining him treating his horses as a game of, say, trump, in which he knows he can win certain 'hands' while knowing he has something even better in reserve.

I imagine him deciding months in advance which horse is going to be targeting which race. We know how seriously he targets the Badger Ales, for example. Yet he'll also run one right down the park there.

I do think the bigger the yard the more scope they have to win good prizes with Div II horses.
 
Not many big festival entries in the field.

This is what I make it:

Supreme - Metier, Third Time Lucki, Llandinabo Lad
Ballymore - Metier, Third Time Lucki
Champion Hdl - Ballyandy, Buzz, For Pleasure, Marie's Rock
Mares - Marie's Rock
Mares nov - Galice Macalo
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Not many big festival entries in the field.

This is what I make it:

Supreme - Metier, Third Time Lucki, Llandinabo Lad
Ballymore - Metier, Third Time Lucki
Champion Hdl - Ballyandy, Buzz, Marie's Rock
Mares - Marie's Rock
Mares nov - Galice Macalo
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For Pleasure is in the Champion.
 
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