The 2021 Betfair Hurdle Sun February 21st Newbury

Desert Orchid said:
While many people disagreed with it at the time, the handicapper allotted Solo a mark of 157 for the Adonis. I plan to check back on that form - I know it has worked out badly - and see how the sectionals went.
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I've now managed to look at the sectionals and they paint a curious picture.

Purely on recorded overall times, the Adonis was slower than both the Dovecote won by Highway One O Two and Kingwell (transferred from Wincanton) won by Song For Someone.

On bare time ratings:

SFS 153 (new OR after the race 153, from 154)
H102 138 (146 from 135)
Solo 131 (+ wfa, 10lb?)

I timed the three races from when the leader was taking Hurdle 1 to the line. They tell another story and suggest that Solo's race must have been quite slow from the start to the hurdle because he was only two seconds slower than SFS over the trip from H1 to the line, and one second slower than H102 over the same trip.

It should also be noted that Solo was never asked a question at any stage while the others were hard at it from three out.

From three out to the line:

SFS: 1m 16s
Solo: 1m 17s
H102: 1m 18s

Solo carried a pound more than both SFS and H102 despite being a year younger.

I think, having watched the race again, that the connections of Solo's opponents probably had their money on the favourite and the jockeys' instructions were to let him win. I might let the runner-up Fujimoto Flyer off with that accusation. He was a strong second-favourite and raced a bit keenly. He gradually put five lengths between himself and the third from two out but Solo increased his lead by about five lengths on the run-in despite being eased.

As I said, Solo was a second slower than Song For Someone from three out to the line but would almost certainly have turned that round had he been asked any sort of question.

I think Nicholls said in his stable tour for this season that he wasn't ready for the Triumph, that he was still an entire at that point and that they decided to geld him and start from scratch. I thik that was when my thoughts first turned to the Betfair Hurdle for him.

First time up this season at Wincanton, he raced keenly through the first 12f of the race and was allowed pretty much to coast home thereafter, being entitled to need the run.

Then at Sandown I thought it was particularly conspicuous how easy Cobden was on him from two out, not asking much of a question as others made moves around him. Getting him dropped a chunk for that struck me 'job done'.
 
I think you'll be on your own betting him. There are so many sexier types in the race. You'll surely get 40/1.
 
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The answers aren't always in the form book.

I quoted General George Patten elsewhere recently:

'If we're all thinking the same thing then at least one of us isn't thinking.'

:)
 
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Yes but with big field handicaps full of horses disguising their ability, The Fat Man with one 'rated 157" and a burst balloon is not where I'll be looking.
 
The two I'm interested in have already been mentioned, Milkwood and Llandinabo Lad. I think they're both seriously well handicapped horses, and will win or go close.

Also if Fry sent Metier here off 149 you couldn't ignore it either. He wouldn't be going out to ruin the second favourite in the Supreme if he didn't think he could win off the mark. He's not an antepost bet though.

I can't support you with Solo either Maurice. I don'd disagree with your rationale, but you won't see the best of Solo until he sees a fence and goes up in trip. He's the typical juvenile that struggles in his second season. He was bought for fences and they won't over-face him now. Any racing this season is now just experience, and next season is when you'll get your payback.
 
Maruco said:
I can't support you with Solo either Maurice. I don'd disagree with your rationale, but you won't see the best of Solo until he sees a fence and goes up in trip. He's the typical juvenile that struggles in his second season. He was bought for fences and they won't over-face him now. Any racing this season is now just experience, and next season is when you'll get your payback.
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Pretty sure Nicholls said something similar last season about PDO. Before today's race he said Solo 'needed to come down a few pounds to be competitive'.

That translates as 'he'll be running down the park today to get him down again ahead of Newbury' :ninja:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Pretty sure Nicholls said something similar last season about PDO. Before today's race he said Solo 'needed to come down a few pounds to be competitive'.

That translates as 'he'll be running down the park today to get him down again ahead of Newbury' :ninja:
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You could be right of course. I couldn't discount it. I ignored Pic D'orhy last year, and probably on the same basis.
 
Slim said:
He did travel ok today for a long way.
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I only caught the last half-mile yesterday and spent most of it willing on Boreham Bill for Marb, forgetting completely that Solo was even in the race, so I watched it all the way through last night.

I would be lying if I said I thought it was a promising run from Solo. Okay, he was never put in the race from a modest start but I would have wanted to see Cobden's ankles up at the horse's ears* before easing off.

I did notice a few shakes of the reins as they turned for home but he was well beaten by then. Nicholls will probably come out and say the horse the horse didn't stay, only got its flu jab a few days before and was a bit flat, he really expected a big run (having told us on Saturday morning the horse needed to come down a few pounds before he would be competitive), etc.

Then if/when he wins the Betfair he'll tell us they tweaked his wind, he really just came to himself in the last week or two, he always knew he was a class act, etc, etc.

As usual, though, I'll be mob-handed in the race on the day once the outsiders are pushed out and extra places kick in.

(* reminds of the old joke in a perfume shop - do you like your wife to wear something behind her ears? - Aye, her ankles!)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I only caught the last half-mile yesterday and spent most of it willing on Boreham Bill for Marb, forgetting completely that Solo was even in the race, so I watched it all the way through last night.

I would be lying if I said I thought it was a promising run from Solo. Okay, he was never put in the race from a modest start but I would have wanted to see Cobden's ankles up at the horse's ears* before easing off.

I did notice a few shakes of the reins as they turned for home but he was well beaten by then. Nicholls will probably come out and say the horse the horse didn't stay, only got its flu jab a few days before and was a bit flat, he really expected a big run (having told us on Saturday morning the horse needed to come down a few pounds before he would be competitive), etc.

Then if/when he wins the Betfair he'll tell us they tweaked his wind, he really just came to himself in the last week or two, he always knew he was a class act, etc, etc.

As usual, though, I'll be mob-handed in the race on the day once the outsiders are pushed out and extra places kick in.

(* reminds of the old joke in a perfume shop - do you like your wife to wear something behind her ears? - Aye, her ankles!)
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Blimey, Desert, you’re not suggesting that I’ve been wrong to hang onto trainers’ every words as gospel are you?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Before today's race he said Solo 'needed to come down a few pounds to be competitive'.

That translates as 'he'll be running down the park today to get him down again ahead of Newbury' :ninja:
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Solo down 3lbs to 141.

I'm seriously tempted to say this is a good thing but for now I'll settle for nibbling away at the best prices and, if the opporchancity arises, top up on the day with the extra places and BOGs.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Solo down 3lbs to 141.

I'm seriously tempted to say this is a good thing but for now I'll settle for nibbling away at the best prices and, if the opporchancity arises, top up on the day with the extra places and BOGs.
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I'll concede he's now interesting off 141.
 
Mack The Man was there or thereabouts in this event last year before being brought down.

He's not taken to fences at all.

The 158 rated Song for Someone was four lengths was behind him at Sandown just over a year ago. I guess he's still fairly handicapped on that form.

I'd want to see him in the final declarations before backing him.

It'd be touch and go whether he'd make the cut off 127.

After the latest chase defeats you'd want a good bulletin off his trainer going into this race.
 
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Slim said:
I'll concede he's now interesting off 141.
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Someone is fishing for a fiver at 80 about Solo on the exchange. Can’t be you, as it’s only a fiver. :lol:

Granted, I am not seeing what Dessie does in this horse, but I wouldn’t be rushing to lay that price.

Dessie, a question for you.

I think your usual measure for this race, is that a horse needs to be about 9lbs ahead of its mark, to get in amongst it. Presumably it’s the Triumph run that gives you some confidence he can hit around 150?
 
Grasshopper said:
Dessie, a question for you.

I think your usual measure for this race, is that a horse needs to be about 9lbs ahead of its mark, to get in amongst it. Presumably it’s the Triumph run that gives you some confidence he can hit around 150?
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I kind of answered this in post #16 of the thread:

Not so much based on a specific run as on the trainer's MO.

While many people disagreed with it at the time, the handicapper allotted Solo a mark of 157 for the Adonis. I plan to check back on that form - I know it has worked out badly - and see how the sectionals went. Nicholls didn't appear to have a problem with it at the time and openly confirmed the horse as the best juvenile he'd had for a long time.

The previous year, Pic D'Orhy came over with a big reputation but ran moderately in the Triumph and the trainer went down the route of getting him handicapped for the Betfair Hurdle.

Both five-year-olds, they would have struggled in the Champion Hurdle, as horses of that age are wont to do, so the ultra-valuable Newbury race is the ideal target.

PDO started his UK career on 149, with Nicholls managing to get him to Newbury off 146 but the win was a narrow one. Those figures might seem close but 4yos are entitled to improve 10lbs into their second season.

Even if we assume Solo's 157 was 8lbs too high, he's now down to 144 and that could come down again if he runs modestly in the Lanzarote (PDO was campaigned at further ahead of Newbury).

With Irish horses highly unlikely to be allowed over, Solo can afford to come down several pounds as he's about seventh in the card at the moment with 24 runners max allowed. 130 was the bottom mark last year, with Irish runners in the race.

Whether I'll get the big price PDO was last year is another matter but I backed him ante-post at much shorter before going in again on the day with the BOG.

A similar scenario might occur here.

Needless to say, he won't be my only bet in the race!


Then in #26 I referred to the Adonis:

Purely on recorded overall times, the Adonis was slower than both the Dovecote won by Highway One O Two and Kingwell (transferred from Wincanton) won by Song For Someone.

On bare time ratings:

SFS 153 (new OR after the race 153, from 154)
H102 138 (146 from 135)
Solo 131 (+ wfa, 10lb?)

I timed the three races from when the leader was taking Hurdle 1 to the line. They tell another story and suggest that Solo's race must have been quite slow from the start to the hurdle because he was only two seconds slower than SFS over the trip from H1 to the line, and one second slower than H102 over the same trip.

It should also be noted that Solo was never asked a question at any stage while the others were hard at it from three out.

From three out to the line:

SFS: 1m 16s
Solo: 1m 17s
H102: 1m 18s

Solo carried a pound more than both SFS and H102 despite being a year younger.

I think, having watched the race again, that the connections of Solo's opponents probably had their money on the favourite and the jockeys' instructions were to let him win. I might let the runner-up Fujimoto Flyer off with that accusation. He was a strong second-favourite and raced a bit keenly. He gradually put five lengths between himself and the third from two out but Solo increased his lead by about five lengths on the run-in despite being eased.

As I said, Solo was a second slower than Song For Someone from three out to the line but would almost certainly have turned that round had he been asked any sort of question.

I think Nicholls said in his stable tour for this season that he wasn't ready for the Triumph, that he was still an entire at that point and that they decided to geld him and start from scratch. I thik that was when my thoughts first turned to the Betfair Hurdle for him.

First time up this season at Wincanton, he raced keenly through the first 12f of the race and was allowed pretty much to coast home thereafter, being entitled to need the run.

Then at Sandown I thought it was particularly conspicuous how easy Cobden was on him from two out, not asking much of a question as others made moves around him. Getting him dropped a chunk for that struck me 'job done'.
 
Just doing a wee trawl for info on when the weights are actually published (today?), I came across an interesting phenomenon.

Since 2010, of the 11 winners of the race, their next run was:

7 - Supreme
1 - Champion (Zarkandar)
1 - Top Novices' Hdle Aintree
1 - County
1 - (PDO) didn't run until chase debut the next season

On another day maybe Ciel De Neige (sorry, Slim!) might have taken in the County.

None of them won next time (as reflected in the step up in class for most).

But it illustrates the class of horse needed for this race these days.
 
Looking back for quotes, I found these from Cobden and Nicholls after the Adonis:

Nor do connections lack confidence, as Cobden told ITV4: "He's a beautiful horse. He's got it all really. He travels, jumps, and has got a great temperament for a colt. It's nice to be on him.

"It was so easy for him. He's got such a big stride and he's very genuine. I do feel privileged riding horses like this."

Nicholls added on Racing TV: "Undoubtedly he's a very smart horse. He's got more scope than Zarkandar and he's hugely exciting."
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Zarkandar won the Betfair off 151 and was raised to 160 for it.

If Solo is thought at least in his ball park...
 
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