The 2021 Betfair Hurdle Sun February 21st Newbury

I've not backed anything yet, although I have fancied Mack The Man for a while.

At an even bigger price though, having ranted and raved about how well handicapped he was last season or the season before, I'm wondering whether Oakley could out run his odds of 40/1.

He was 7th in the Betfair last season when not getting the best of runs, now off a 3lb lower mark, if I don't back him on Sunday and he gets in the places I'll kick myself.
 
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Marb said:
I've not backed anything yet, although I have fancied Mack The Man for a while.

At an even bigger price though, having ranted and raved about how well handicapped he was last season or the season before, I'm wondering whether Oakley could out run his odds of 40/1.

He was 7th in the Betfair last season when not getting the best of runs, now off a 3lb lower mark, if I don't back him on Sunday and he gets in the places I'll kick myself.
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I thought he had been taken out.
 
Nah he's still in.

I could see him running well if Phillip Hobbs could get a bit more improvement out of Oakley.

Some firms are five places.

I guess at nearly twice the price of Mack The Man, I'll end up doing Oakley each way.
 
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Desert, not sure what your full hand looks like, but I’m just adding a reminder about your Noted In Running post #152 about Milkwood who hasn’t run since.
 
For what they are worth, from geegeez

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18 - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger

Pic D’Orhy (33/1) won the race in 2020

The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1
 
Tout Seul said:
Night Edition, mentioned in dispatches on here is shortening substantially across the board.
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Yes, I saw that, TS. I was quite chuffed to have snaffled 80 at Betfair a while back but I now see it's been voided. I'm not unhappy with the 50/1 I still have elsewhere but wouldn't have minded getting a wee top up at this morning's 50s but that's knocked on the head.

I've topped up on H102 at 50s instead. I might top up on Glory And Fortune in the morning.

I plan to spread a point thinly across Milkwood and three other longshots and cover all the bets with Mister Coffey, for which I've missed the 10s as well.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I plan to spread a point thinly across Milkwood and three other longshots and cover all the bets with Mister Coffey, for which I've missed the 10s as well.
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There's been a lot of activity in the market this morning. Two of my longhots, which have looked stable or even weakish through the weak have now gone blue and I've done well to get 20/1 - Galice Macalo. She caught my eye on the numbers at Sandown and her 'disappointing' run in the Tolworth might be explained by her presence here. My only negative for her is that she was taken out of the original race. I also had to settle for 18/1 Shakem Up'Arry. The other longshot is Mack The Man (28/1) although he might need others to fail to fulfil their potential for him to win otherwise he'll need to improve which isn't as likely for him as others but he's well handicapped on the pick of his form, as discussed with Marb some time back.

I'm not in the least confident of having included the winner in my raft of bets, just really looking for value. I've let most of the favourites go, which might prove costly.

Skelton's horses are running suspiciously well, I have to say, so I have to be scared of Cadzand even though he shouldn't be favourite on my figures.

Soaring Glory I mentioned earlier on the thread. He could just be an unexposed plot but I can't have him at a single-figure price either. Sometimes you just need to let them win unbacked.
 
I think you're right about Mack The Man. Hell need to improve a hell of a lot. I've looked and looked at this race, and the deciding factor in backing Shakemuparry is Harry Redknapp was funny on the tele last night. A big horse racing supporter too. So I'll be having a little bet on his horse, why not eh.
 
Galice Macalo, On to Victory and Lightly Squeeze (!) came out top on my little ratings system. But I do like Fifty Ball as well. And will add Mack the Man because Jamie has a good record in the race and I’d love to see him have another good day after yesterday.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Soaring Glory I mentioned earlier on the thread. He could just be an unexposed plot but I can't have him at a single-figure price either. Sometimes you just need to let them win unbacked.
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I was the same as you on Soaring Glory before this race.

Fair play to the trainer. The Hennessy and Betfair handicaps landed this season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Soaring Glory I mentioned earlier on the thread. He could just be an unexposed plot but I can't have him at a single-figure price either. Sometimes you just need to let them win unbacked.
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That's a sore one for me.

I think Slim was all over it like a rash so well done him and all his backers.

The form will be very strong but a few of the jockeys should be lined up and shot for riding like idiots. The leader and those who chased him to start with. They were always going too fast. I'm a fan of NdB but wtf was he doing trying to come from so far back?

Losses on the race are pretty heavy for me, which doesn't happen often, but I'm sure I can use upcoming races to recoup them.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The Betfair has been a plot race going back to the days of Ryan Price.

But I am pretty addicted to them :lol:
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I never think of things like that. I was dead impressed with SG at Chepstow and when he lined up at Newbury alongside Dusart I had Betfair's Supreme market up and was gonna back him if he ran well. Obviously ended up on Dusart instead. The plot for today never even occured to me when he was beat at Ascot.
 
Soaring Glory was an obvious one with only the ground being a little worry. If you couldn't find him upgrade your formbook.

Now can we move on to solving Cheltenham handicaps, this race is dead to me.
 
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