The 2021 Betfair Hurdle Sun February 21st Newbury

Marb said:
I'm sticking with Mack The Man.
Click to expand...

What about his other one Marb.Ballinsker.if it gets in.it got well beat by milkwood but is 14lb better and ran a good 6th behind the shunter.
Ran in a bumper the other day and was pulled up which didnt look good.
 
I couldn't have Ballinsker after that run last week. 14th of 14th. I'll be surprised if he's declared after that.

I've fancied Mack The Man for a while, not just because he was travelling well before being brought down in this race last season, but also if you look closely at his Sandown win, he beat Protektorat and Song For Someone.

The former was a good third afterwards in the Ballymore Hurdle at the festival, before embarking on a novice chase campaign, while Song For Someone has proved to be a 150 + rated hurdler. I think there's ample room for Mack The Man to prove better than his handicap mark at present. I think he's a solid choice in the each way betting market.

I feel a lot depends on the favourite though, who was impressive the last day, but one I'm prepared to take on at the odds.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Hopefully the race gets the go-ahead.

These are my own figures for the race. The final column is the best price this evening with the main oddschecker bookies. Hopefully it will highlight some value. I'll put Glory And Fortune on the longshot thread but my worry is that he is a lot longer with the exchange so there's maybe a doubt about him running.

The figure at the top of the ratings column represents the kind of mark it would take to win a normal £20k+ Class 2 Saturday handicap. It illustrates how much better than that this race is.

Figures in brackets denote last season's form (where it is better than this season's) and I always add a notional 10lbs to horses whose figure is based on novice race form (denoted by 'nov').

[TABLE="width: 388"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]166+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]x/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mister Coffey[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Shakem Up'Arry[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Faivoir[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mack The Man[/TD]
[TD](170)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Metier[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]? +p nov[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Milkwood[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Glory And Fortune[/TD]
[TD](167)[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Oakley[/TD]
[TD](166)[/TD]
[TD]? p?[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] On To Victory[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Buzz[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Highway One O Two[/TD]
[TD](164)[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lightly Squeeze[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Night Edition[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]++? nov[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Edwardstone[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ballinsker[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Wild Max[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Friend Or Foe[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dans Le Vent[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] For Pleasure[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+? p?[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Thyme White[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cadzand[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Guard Your Dreams[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Annual Invictus[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Soaring Glory[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]p? nov[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fifty Ball[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]14 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sky Pirate[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]174+p ch[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

FUTURE OR Faivoir (+7),Lightly Squeeze (-1),Mack The Man (-3),Sky Pirate (-5)
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That seems very low on Soaring Glory.
 
Slim said:
That seems very low on Soaring Glory.
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I'll be double-checking it on Thursday but I'll also be adding 10lbs in my head. Is this the one Timeform said something about its price not being justified by its rating?

Remember, adding those 10lbs will take it beyond the winning of a normal Class 2 £20k Saturday hcap. This race is another level altogether.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll be double-checking it on Thursday but I'll also be adding 10lbs in my head. Is this the one Timeform said something about its price not being justified by its rating?

Remember, adding those 10lbs will take it beyond the winning of a normal Class 2 £20k Saturday hcap. This race is another level altogether.
Click to expand...

I thought the 10 was already added in. I've not backed him yet but I think he is the most likely winner.
 
No, I don't add the 10 on paper. It's notional. I tend to double-check those to see if any have already progressed that much already (eg Buzz). Noting 'nov' next to the rating is my cue to myself to keep it in mind. Others reading the figure might not agree so it's to allow subjectivity.

I'll have another look at Soaring Glory to see if I've overlooked anything in his form.
 
Newbury (Updated: 09:48, 10th Feb)

Sat 13 Feb Going/Track: Soft Frozen in places under the covers. An improvement in predicted temperatures is needed. Will inspect on Friday morning at 08:30
 
With temperatures struggling to breach 0c there is no chance of this meeting taking place on Saturday. Why it cant be postponed to early next week now and enable vaccinations to take place on Saturday rather than a lost day is beyond me.
 
Fresh home from battling against meteorological monstrosities and temperatures that would have a Covid vaccine crying for its mammy, I pick a fight with the RP before discovering that Paul Kealy has tipped Soaring Glory.

I really need to calm down and check this one out again!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I really need to calm down and check this one out again!
Click to expand...

I've had another look. On this season's form, there's a case for raising his rating by a few (3 or 4) pounds but it's tentative.

Paul Kealy's case for it is based on a few different angles:

1. Form v Bravemansgame
2. Form v My Drogo
3. Bumper form

1. Yes, he did beat Bravemansgame first time up this season and, yes, Bravemansgame is now a strong fancy for the festival. But on his next run, BMG only earned an RPR of 132.

2. Yes, he was third to My Drogo, beaten six lengths at levels but My Drogo, despite his lofty reputation, is still only rated 140. Llandinabo Lad, second that day was beaten out of sight next time although I wouldn't set any store by that form. It just means he hasn't franked it yet.

3. This is the interesting form and form I didn't look at simply because it was last season's bumper form. However, PK makes the point that SG achieved high (for a bumper) RPRs in those and some of the beaten horses do make you want to take notice. Shantou Express, Benson, Kid Commando and BMG were all behind him at Ascot although the winner, Israel Champ was beaten 41L in the festival bumper. Behind him the time before, also at Ascot, were Kid commando and BMG.

I wouldn't put it past Jonjo to have plotted SG up for this all season but PK does seem to be cherrypicking at his form. That said, he also did the same when he tipped Jonjo's Cloth Cap for the Ladbrokes so it's possible he's been informed that a big run is anticipated.

I might need to have sickness insurance on the bastert.

Cheers, Slim

:lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Fresh home from battling against meteorological monstrosities and temperatures that would have a Covid vaccine crying for its mammy, I pick a fight with the RP before discovering that Paul Kealy has tipped Soaring Glory.

I really need to calm down and check this one out again!
Click to expand...

I was reading a trends page and the guy on there tipped Soaring Glory as well.
 
The Beast From The East Rating is 182 at the moment..
Dosage would suggest it will have a fair amount of stamina...
Betting would suggest it is likely t prevail...

Came with a long run from the back, they tried to block it's path with covers, but it found a gap up the rails..
 
I went to a rescheduled Betfair Day at Newbury a few years ago so it can be done, pretty sure it was the following Friday and admission was free.
 
I was there too. First time I’d seen Sprinter Sacre, and Zarkander won the Betfair. Great day’s racing, but huge problems with the serving of ale. 2011, btw.
 
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I noticed Hendo and P.Nicholls were saying it should be saved.i like
Buzz and Mr Coffee (hendo's)
And Friend or foe ( nicholls)

I hope it can be saved even though every time I look at the race I get more confused.
 
Two scratched at the final dec stage: Oakley and, surprisingly, Faivoir (considering she was 7lbs well in).

Tricky Dicky switches to Annual Invictus and Joshua Moore switches from Annual Invictus to Highway One O Two.

Harry Skelton leaves Cadzand to Bridget Andrews and goes to Warwick for Allmankind.
 
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