The 2021 Grand National

A quick comparison with RPRs has me thinking nothing stands out as being well in, although I think those RPRs are based on current form so once older form is taken into consideration maybe something else will look better handicapped.

I'm more than happy with my 100/1 about Beware The Bear. On my own figures he is very, very well handicapped and 10-10 strikes me as a nice weight.
 
Desert Orchid said:
A quick comparison with RPRs has me thinking nothing stands out as being well in, although I think those RPRs are based on current form so once older form is taken into consideration maybe something else will look better handicapped.

I'm more than happy with my 100/1 about Beware The Bear. On my own figures he is very, very well handicapped and 10-10 strikes me as a nice weight.
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7Lb less than the handicapper gave him for last years non-event!
 
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Milan native 50/1 last years kim Muir winner.had breathing op and goes straight to national. 10.6 looks nice.
 
edgt said:
Jett a very interesting purchase by Waley-Cohens.
He has run very impressively more than once in top company and has a big race in him.
Sam rides Aintree as well as anyone and should suit the horse.
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Decided to have a nibble at 66/1 to 5 places. Gave Alpha Des Obeaux 7lbs and a beating last season, gets 2lbs in this.

If this has been the target since his good run behind Delta Work in the Irish Gold Cup, it would explain his poor form this season.

It would be nice if Sam could ride but if it's not to be it's not to be.
 
Tiger Roll awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Bristol De Mai awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Anibale Fly awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Beware The Bear awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Aso awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Chris's Dream awarded 4Lb more than last year.
Alpha Des Obeaux awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Jett awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Magic Of Light awarded 2Lb less than last year.
The Story Teller awarded 7Lb more than last year.
Ballyoptic awarded 1Lb more than last year.
Talkischeap awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Yala Enki awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Burrows saint same weight as last year.
Definitely Red awarded 2Lb more than last year.
OK Corral awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Sub Lieutenant awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Tout Est Permis same weight as last year.
Crievehill awarded 14Lb less than last year...6Lb wrong if he gets in
Lake View Lad awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Acapella Bourgeois awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Any Second Now same weight as last year.
Champagne Classic awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Potters Corner awarded 3Lb less than last year.
Shattered Love awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Death Duty awarded 7lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.
Dounikos awarded 13Lb less than last year. 9Lb wrong if he gets in.
Double Shuffle awarded 5Lb less than last year. 1Lb wrong if he gets in.
Kimberlite Candy awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Valtor awarded 8Lb less than last year. 4Lb wrong if he gets in.
Class Conti same weight as last year.
Give Me A Copper same weight as last year.
Lord Du Mesnil awarded 2Lb more than last year.
Takingrisks awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Hogon Height's same weight as last year.
Cabaret Queen awarded 3Lb more than last year.
A Toi Phil awarded 4Lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.

It would appear, the handicapper has given with one hand and cleverly taken away with the other...mostly to the Irish, or McManus plots.
 
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Maxbet said:
Amateur jockeys are no longer permitted to ride in Britain after the BHA released a number of changes to the race programme.

British racing's governing body confirmed that hunter chases would be taking place this season, but only professional jockeys or conditionals will be allowed to ride.

The decisions have been taken by the racing industry's Covid-19 steering group which includes representatives from racecourses and horsemen.

Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
Licence
Amateur
Lowest riding weight in last 12 months
9-13


Needs the ban lifting first...
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Could he turn pro in order to ride in this?? Presumably would have to renege amateur status for a while afterwards.... but he wouldn't be missing out on much/anything for the following 6 months??

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
 
littlelad said:
Could he turn pro in order to ride in this?? Presumably would have to renege amateur status for a while afterwards.... but he wouldn't be missing out on much/anything for the following 6 months??

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
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yes, I am sure I have read of one already turning conditional in order to get round it!
 
Puppy Power was lined up to ride Jett in last year's Galway Plate so imagine he will have the ride as Magic Saint was ridden by Paddy Kennedy in the GN in 2019 when Puppy rode for Gordon Elliott.
 
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Maxbet said:
Tiger Roll awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Bristol De Mai awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Anibale Fly awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Beware The Bear awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Aso awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Chris's Dream awarded 4Lb more than last year.
Alpha Des Obeaux awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Jett awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Magic Of Light awarded 2Lb less than last year.
The Story Teller awarded 7Lb more than last year.
Ballyoptic awarded 1Lb more than last year.
Talkischeap awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Yala Enki awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Burrows saint same weight as last year.
Definitely Red awarded 2Lb more than last year.
OK Corral awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Sub Lieutenant awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Tout Est Permis same weight as last year.
Crievehill awarded 14Lb less than last year...6Lb wrong if he gets in
Lake View Lad awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Acapella Bourgeois awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Any Second Now same weight as last year.
Champagne Classic awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Potters Corner awarded 3Lb less than last year.
Shattered Love awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Death Duty awarded 7lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.
Dounikos awarded 13Lb less than last year. 9Lb wrong if he gets in.
Double Shuffle awarded 5Lb less than last year. 1Lb wrong if he gets in.
Kimberlite Candy awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Valtor awarded 8Lb less than last year. 4Lb wrong if he gets in.
Class Conti same weight as last year.
Give Me A Copper same weight as last year.
Lord Du Mesnil awarded 2Lb more than last year.
Takingrisks awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Hogon Height's same weight as last year.
Cabaret Queen awarded 3Lb more than last year.
A Toi Phil awarded 4Lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.

It would appear, the handicapper has given with one hand and cleverley taken away with the other...mostly to the Irish, or McManus plots.
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Anibale Fly was the one that jumped out at me. Not sure if Martin still has his magic.
 
HawkWing said:
Anibale Fly was the one that jumped out at me. Not sure if Martin still has his magic.
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I backed it last week...Didn't get as much of a drop as I expected...blatantly been schooling for 3 years and the handicapper knows it....think the age allowed the leniency from the handicapper...
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's the utopian scenario.

Don't get me wrong. As someone who, in the past, has backed Crisp, Lord Gyllene, Mr Frisk, etc, I love these front-running types but everybody knows how Cloth Cap is going to run. The likes of Gigginstown only need to run a couple of non-stayers prominently and harry him at every fence to make him over-race. If that happens the ba's up on the slates.
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The new favourite...
 
Maxbet said:
Tiger Roll awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Bristol De Mai awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Anibale Fly awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Beware The Bear awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Aso awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Chris's Dream awarded 4Lb more than last year.
Alpha Des Obeaux awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Jett awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Magic Of Light awarded 2Lb less than last year.
The Story Teller awarded 7Lb more than last year.
Ballyoptic awarded 1Lb more than last year.
Talkischeap awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Yala Enki awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Burrows saint same weight as last year.
Definitely Red awarded 2Lb more than last year.
OK Corral awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Sub Lieutenant awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Tout Est Permis same weight as last year.
Crievehill awarded 14Lb less than last year...6Lb wrong if he gets in
Lake View Lad awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Acapella Bourgeois awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Any Second Now same weight as last year.
Champagne Classic awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Potters Corner awarded 3Lb less than last year.
Shattered Love awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Death Duty awarded 7lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.
Dounikos awarded 13Lb less than last year. 9Lb wrong if he gets in.
Double Shuffle awarded 5Lb less than last year. 1Lb wrong if he gets in.
Kimberlite Candy awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Valtor awarded 8Lb less than last year. 4Lb wrong if he gets in.
Class Conti same weight as last year.
Give Me A Copper same weight as last year.
Lord Du Mesnil awarded 2Lb more than last year.
Takingrisks awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Hogon Height's same weight as last year.
Cabaret Queen awarded 3Lb more than last year.
A Toi Phil awarded 4Lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.

It would appear, the handicapper has given with one hand and cleverly taken away with the other...mostly to the Irish, or McManus plots.
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Alan Crowhurst reads this forum....

https://www.racingpost.com/news/202...national-contenders-weights-since-2020/473747
 
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I've had another dip in the shark-infested market to add to Beware The Bear and Jett:

Burrows Saint 25/1 - I haven't checked the form yet and really only backed this one at this stage with a view to getting on the right side of a potential gamble, although I do suspect he could be potentially very well in, something I'll touch on in due course once I've done my first trawl of the ratings. Impressive in the Irish National a couple of seasons ago, there was talk of the Gold Cup at one point after that for the horse. He was potentially a winner last year or at least an overall improver and possibly open to further improvement with age. He's also still lightly raced and, given the trainer, is the type to attract support from casual punters. In similar vein, he's the type likely to appeal to trend-followers and could attract the occasional misguided headline as a result, leading to a shortening in price.

Edit - mega brain fart...

The foregoing re Burrows Saint is still on the back burner in terms of committing to a bet although the rationale is accurate. I had just backed B Saint on the brother's behalf, which is why it was on my mind.

The one I actually backed and meant to post is Any Second Now 25/1. Hacked up at the Festival and was heavily backed for the National subsequently, if memory serves, from 33/1 into single figures or near enough. 33/1 wasn't available yesterday and it seems to be shortening today.
 
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Copied from the Longshot thread:

Grand National - Lord Du Mesnil 50/1 NRNB (Paddy Power/Betfair)

He was one of my ante-post bets last year, also 50s NRNB, despite my aversion to 7yos in the race. He would have been 6lbs well in. I backed him on the eve of the Haydock National Trial in anticipation of a win but he went up 6lbs for being a good second. He then ran into a serious tool in Ravenhill in the NH Chase. He's now a second-season chaser and entitled to improve but they've kept him quiet, presumably to preserve his mark. In fact, he's back down to 149 so likely to be right at the bottom of the weights and should qualify so he can win tomorrow's renewal if he likes as he won't pick up a penalty. A win, or even a good run, will see his mark go back up again and he'll be that much well in again come April. He was reportedly stressed after the Welsh National so I presume something was amiss.
 
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I've gone in again, more heavily, on Lord du Mesnil at 40/1 without the NRNB concession. I reckon only mishap will prevent him from running in the race and I'll be very surprised if he goes up any less than 8lbs for today's win. I reckon once it becomes common knowledge that he is those 8lbs or maybe even 9lbs well in the money will come for him. He really should be a 10/1 NRNB shot but you can still get 25/1.

Over the next few weeks more like him will emerge.

Next Saturday there's the big 3m Kempton handicap. The Grimthorpe at Doncaster should be coming up soon too. Then there's the Ultima, the Cross-country, the Foxhunters, Kim Muir and the NH Chase, plus whatever other staying chases are open to horses currently rated at least 144 up and down the country.

And that's before we even start on the Irish races.

How many of them will pick up 8/9lbs rises along the way we will have to see but for me it isn't hard to imagine that Lord Du Mesnil arrives at Aintree the best handicapped horse in the race on prevalent official ratings.

That alone should put him in the front five of the betting.

He did put in a couple of iffy jumps today but never really looked like falling and he might be the type to really take to the fences. There's a fair chance he will stay the trip too as he was starting to go away again from Achille nearing the line today and I like prominent runners in the National itself.
 
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It is so blatantly obvious that Tiger Roll is being jobbed for the 2022 Grand National:D

Looks like the aim is to get his weight down to 11st 3ish next year
 
Personally I felt he stopped a bit quick after travelling nicely and his stride seemed to shorten a bit. They mentioned he was slightly lame after Cheltenham cross country when he pulled up. I would be a little concerned and ponderous now about his participation. He won’t be risked if everything isn’t 100%.
 
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jinnyj said:
Personally I felt he stopped a bit quick after travelling nicely and his stride seemed to shorten a bit. They mentioned he was slightly lame after Cheltenham cross country when he pulled up. I would be a little concerned and ponderous now about his participation. He won’t be risked if everything isn’t 100%.
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Id agree with that. Checked out very tamely. Looks gone to me.
 
I wouldn't read anything into today's run, not even his tame finish. He travelled well enough for long enough to hint that all the ability is still there. I thought the jockey was just looking after him from three out having decided 'job done'.

They can't do anything about his National weight for this season and his hopes for next season will surely depend on how he goes in the Cross-Country, which they've been adamant is his main target for this season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't read anything into today's run, not even his tame finish. He travelled well enough for long enough to hint that all the ability is still there. I thought the jockey was just looking after him from three out having decided 'job done'.

They can't do anything about his National weight for this season and his hopes for next season will surely depend on how he goes in the Cross-Country, which they've been adamant is his main target for this season.
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He won the race when being prepped for his second win. He isn't remotely in the same form.

Also, i'd have it at 1/100 that he will be retired after Aintree.
 
Gordon not said much yet but jockey said he hated the ground. Make of that what you will.
 
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