The 2021 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
24,252
I've no idea how the other thread got on in terms of profit or loss but it was fun along the way, with quite a few lovely winners and loads of big-odds placers.

Let's hope this year's thread provides as much fun, which is all it's really meant to be.

I didn't plan to have any bets at all today (maybe in the Glasgow derby football match but the bookies aren't giving much away) as I didn't get the chance to study any of the races.

However, we know Gary Moore likes to target Sandown so I was surprised to see his Zamperini as big as 50/1 in the 3.35 and much longer on the exchanges. It's the horse's first appearance after over a year off and it's lightly raced so probably fragile but he could have taken it pretty much anywhere for a spin round. The market weakness is a concern and the chances are it's being given a CD prep ahead of something like the Imperial Cup in a couple of months' time, but it's a hunch - that's all it is - I'm prepared to play.

Maybe Zamperini can scamper in, eh? :rolleyes:

Edit - in the same race, now that I think about it, Ruacana at 40/1 is far too big for a horse with good CD form in heavy ground at the bottom of the weights.

(Rua cannae, can he?)
 
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In the Glasgow derby match I was going to take 66/1 over 7.5 goals but got 150 on the exchange.

The only thing you can predict about this match is that it will be unpredictable. I'm very pleased to see young Soro keeping Brown out of the team. The Ivorian should have been played long before now. He's a wee belter of a player who will make his name in due course with one of the big English or European teams.

I was talking about this game with Orchidette last night and told her I hoped he would play. I often bang on about the importance of psychology/mentality at the top levels of the game and I have suspected this season, with so much pressure on us in the European games, that the players are afraid to make a mistake and incur the wrath of Broony. Maybe they can relax a wee bit and just play their own game if he's not there.

I still believe man-for-man we are better than our opponents in every position on the park bar maybe GK. With Edouard and Griffiths at last teaming up we've looked like we've got five or six goals in us every game they've played together. We should have been four or five up at half-time in each of the last two games.

However, Barkas is a vulnerable looking keeper and our other defensive frailties are still in evidence, especially at set plays. One thing you can guarantee is that the ref will give the home side as many free-kicks as he can as soon as they get in our half. That way Tavernier can launch the ball into danger areas. Goldson stands in an offside position and lets the defence then play him on while he gets to the ball first with them distracted.

In the recent cup final, Hearts' Steven Naismith was frequently allowed to impede the goalkeeper at corners. Michael Beale will have noticed and will assign a forward to do the same thing knowing they'll get away with it.

I can see us scoring a few goals but I can also see us conceding a few so a high-scoring match maybe shouldn't be as long a price at is is. I reckon at least two or three goals for each/either side is entirely possible.

But I'll be happy for us to win 8-0 :lol:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
In the Glasgow derby match I was going to take 66/1 over 7.5 goals but got 150 on the exchange.
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Looks like the bet is going well south at halftime 0-0.

I'm genuinely surprised Celtic are so dominant. I was expecting a harder game and only a brilliant fingertip save by McGregor stands between us and the lead.

We'll see what the second half brings.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Looks like the bet is going well south at halftime 0-0.

I'm genuinely surprised Celtic are so dominant. I was expecting a harder game and only a brilliant fingertip save by McGregor stands between us and the lead.

We'll see what the second half brings.
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Disappointing but sometimes the better team ends up shooting itself in the foot. Shades of last season's league cup final when we were played off the park (because we played very badly) but got a win. We were by far the better team today, certainly in the first half, but an iffy (according to the radio guys talking afterwards) sending off, an unlucky OG, and some very dodgy refereeing have turned the game against us.

I would have settled for a draw beforehand but this defeat is a sore one.
 
Well done with the older long shot thread, DO. It was a good addition to this forum.

I hope you don't mind me putting a horse on here for the rearranged Welsh National this Saturday. The horse was formerly trained by Willie Mullins, before switching to Venetia Williams yard about two years ago.

Upon changing trainer, Didero Vallis won on his second and third start over fences, over distances which appeared to make him look like a 2M4F chaser.

The past eighteen months or so, the horses best performances were when fifth in the Brown Plate at the Cheltenham festival behind Siruh Du Lac.

He was then second on boxing day 2019 at Wetherby, when splitting race winner Top Ville Ben, and the eventual third horse horse home Lake View Lad.

Top Ville Ben and Lake View Lad are both very good chasers on their day, which is illustrated by the fact they're both rated in the 160's now. They are the type of horses who could run in something like the Ultima Chase at the festival with every chance in their own right.

I'm interested in Didero Vallis off a mark of 130 on Saturday. This also happens to be his last winning mark, but this 3M6F test will be a totally different test of stamina which he may actually revel in.

I just think he's shown plenty over the shorter distances, showing that there is talent that has probably yet to be fully discovered. He may out run big odds in this different type of chase, the real staying contest and jumping contest that it is.

I'll have a look the best odds and terms nearer the race time.
 
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Why would I mind, Marb? The thread is for longshots and anyone with a 20+/1 fancy is free to put it up.
DV is 50s in places.

I would only have minded if it was under 20/1 :)

I'm not sure when my next punt will be. These last 48 hours my vision has deteriorated again. I'm due in the eye hospital tomorrow and hope they'll be able to tell if it's a build up of fluid at the back of the eye again. If so they might be able to offer me an injection fairly promptly. If it isn't just a build up of fluid I might be donald-ducked.
 
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I hope you get sorted.

I called my local doctors earlier to speak to a nurse about a little ache (and it is fairly little) on my chest. I just wanted a nurse to listen to my chest really. I've been a smoker for 20 years so a little ache and cough here and there are par for the course.

Anyways, I made an appointment, then got a call back from the nurse saying my local nurse won't see me or check my chest until I get a covid test.

FFS. I haven't got covid FFS. I've just spent an hour filling out some covid test form... I'll probably catch covid doing the covid test! I'm meant to queue up with a load of covids! If I haven't got it going in I'll have it coming out!

I've just taken a couple of nurofen. That might do the trick.

Your eye sounds a bit serious. Good luck with it.
 
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We're going off-topic a bit but you don't really kn ow whether or not you have Covid until your test comes back negative.

I was told back at the end of March I "probably had coronavirus" and when I got back in touch with the health centre after a week of self-isolation to discuss how my week had gone I was told "you probably didn't have it but we'll never know because we're not testing".

About three weeks ago, I saw a doctor about being unable to sleep at night because my throat felt like it was closing over I was told to get a Covid test. I filled the form in online but was told I didn't qualify for a test because I didn't have any of the listed symptoms. I went back and changed one of the boxes to indicate that I had one of the symptoms. There should have been a box with the option to say that your doctor has advised the test but I had, effectively, to lie, which I'm not at all comfortable with.

I got the test within an hour locally and the result came through 12 hours later. A fvcking text message woke me at 3am, just after I'd managed to get to sleep after struggling for three hours! The result came back negative.

So I'm no further forward other than not having Covid. Still struggling through the night with the sensation that my throat is closing and very dry to swallow so I have to get up every hour or so, whether I've slept or not, and sip some water. I don't breathe through my mouth and the airway itself is generally clear enough. A scope back in September told me my arytenoids were swollen and inflamed and that's probably still what's going on but they're looking for other causes too. I have a gastroscopy scheduled for this Friday but that might be cancelled.

Lucky white heather, anyone?
 
Welsh National Vieux Lion Rouge 20/1, 5pl.

As I said on the ante-post thread, I'm not convinced the Haydock form should be taken literally but it was visually impressive and this is a must-bet to cover the handicapper's being right. VLR will be 8lbs well in on Saturday - assuming he runs - and in theory should be in the front two or three in the market.

I'm also currently checking out a potential 33/1 shot in the same race.
 
Couldn’t be acid reflux could it? Is it easier to sleep sitting upright? Have you tried putting Vicks vapour rub on the soles of your feet at night? Nothing worse than constantly waking up is there. Hope you get it sorted.
 
moe said:
Couldn’t be acid reflux could it?
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That's why I have a gastroscopy this Friday, moe. I've had reflux for decades (hiatus hernia) and was told back in the day it was easier/cheaper to keep giving me meds than to operate but this problem is more recent, maybe started about 5 years ago but has got worse in the last three or four, much worse since about September.

The gastroscopy, according to the doc, is to check for ulcers. She said they can cause my symptoms but I don't have any pains, thankfully.

She said sometimes they don't cause pain.

If it is ulcers I'm lucky in a way, not getting pain. I know friends who found them painful and one nearly died when his burst. I also get 'silent' migraines which just distort my vision (different from blurred vision) without headaches.

Curiously enough, since I woke this morning my eyesight seems fine again so I need to find out why I went for 48 hours unable to see properly (despite bathing my eyes regularly). Last night I needed to sit a foot and a half away from the TV with my reading glasses on just to see any detail or words.
 
Do you take losec? Something that imo shouldn’t be taken long term but is handed out like sweets by doctors. It can cause all sorts on knock on effects.I had a prism like migraine a few times and it scared the living daylights out of me. You need to get your eyes sorted as I need a few big priced winners from you as I’m now down to £8 in my corals account having decimated my WHill account by having silly mug punter bets.
 
With the health concerns in here I sincerely hope people aren’t staking too much, too far in advance :ninja:

Seriously, good luck with the eyes DO

Back to the longshots; the recent-ish phenomenon of request a bets are risky as they subtly disguise the fact you’re placing five and sixfold win accas but there’s often a diamond or two in the rough and while there’s risk in any of the horses missing the race entirely, especially with possible concerns over international travel for horses nearer the date, Skybet do have two or three at huge prices which have tempted me.

Appreciate It to win the Supreme, Chacun Pour Soi to win the QMCC & Monkfish to win the RSA + Bravemansgame (Ballymore) & Sharjah (CH) both to place. 100/1

Appreciate It to win the Supreme, Chacun Pour Soi to win the QMCC & Al Boum Photo to win the Gold Cup + Concertista (Mares Hurdle) & Bravemansgame (Ballymore) both to place. 150/1

Replace Bravemansgame with Bob Olinger and it’s 200/1

In all three cases the odds offered are significantly better than the best odds available in straight line accas and good luck trying to find a bookie who’ll combine the win parts with place only terms for the remainder.

Of course if Willie does a “Willie” and switches Appreciate It back to the intermediate novice race we’re screwed but the Ballymore looks a much hotter race than the Supreme so I’d be surprised.
 
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moe said:
Do you take losec? Something that imo shouldn’t be taken long term but is handed out like sweets by doctors. It can cause all sorts on knock on effects.
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I started on Losec about 35 years ago, then 'graduated' to Zantac, then Omeprazole (for the last 20 years or so) before recently changing to Lansoprazole and very recently to Pantoprazole (appropriately enough for the time of year).
 
Do the final confirmations for the Welsh National come through tomorrow, anyone know?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Welsh National Vieux Lion Rouge 20/1, 5pl.

As I said on the ante-post thread, I'm not convinced the Haydock form should be taken literally but it was visually impressive and this is a must-bet to cover the handicapper's being right. VLR will be 8lbs well in on Saturday - assuming he runs - and in theory should be in the front two or three in the market.

I'm also currently checking out a potential 33/1 shot in the same race.
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Do you mean Aintree form.? I took 20/1 virus lion rouge with whill and just checked and it still stands.
 
Yes, Aintree.

Age and all that :)

VLR was 25/1 with Hills earlier today. Bugged me, that.
 
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A couple of longshots I feel like giving a good shout to tomorrow.

Wincanton

1.30 Martha Brae. She's still an unexposed horse who showed a bit of consistency in some novice hurdles as a youngster. She's had three handicap hurdle starts this season.

She's started well in these races, led the last twice before stopping very quickly. She's had a wind operation maybe that will do the trick. Also drops in distance which ought to suit. She still could be anything in terms of true handicap ability in relation to her actual handicap mark.

Kempton

3.30 Boreham Bill is my longshot in the Lanzarote. He put in an interesting run last time. He blundered hanging left while held up on the day. Considering these issues he did well to be there at the business end but was just done for speed at the finish.

This will be an even greater test with a much stronger gallop over this right handed track and if he's held up for a late thrust he can go close again after a decent two month break from that last performance. He has talent but consistency hasn't been his strong point in career thus far. Hopefully he can start to put that right here tomorrow at a generous price too.
 
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I didn't look at the 1.30 Wincanton but I wouldn't put you off Boreham Bill even if I can't see me backing it myself.
 
Lanzarote looks open. He seems a decent enough horse at a decent enough price. I won't let it put me off.
 
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First up for me today...

Kempton 1.45 King Of Realms 20/1 4pl - not too far off the top on my figures with the potential to improve past a lot of dodgepots. I wasn't planning on having a bet in this race but I thought this would be around the 7/1 mark so I have to take the bait.
 
Next up (and don't laugh...):

Kempton 3.30 Gerolamo Cardano 150/1, 5pl - this second-season juvenile took in the Triumph Trial and Victor Ludorum last year, going off at single-figure odds in each and going up to 131 for the former but has been dropped to 127. I’m not a great fan of the jockey but her claim, the first-time pieces and the very fact that they’re coming for this first time up intrigues the ‘outside the box’ element of my thinking. Would probably be no more than 33/1 with better-known connections.
 
I had a longish look at this one last night, DO, but went with something else in the end, as I thought I was maybe being a bit daft. Might just have a small each-way tickle on this, now that someone else is thinking along the same lines.
 
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