The 2021 Longshot Thread

Lastly (for now), a couple for the Welsh Nash:

Captain Drake 33/1 6pl - first-time pieces and his hurdles win earlier in the season suggested he was much-improved and entitled to be even better over fences. He did jump like a piano stool last time and will need to buck up on that score.

Joe Farrell 66/1 6pl - everything points to his being in terminal decline but he was a length third to VLR here a year past in October off 142 and his Scottish National win tells us he'll stay. I like wizened old plodders in exptreme conditions. They seem to cope better than younger horses who maybe just aren't strong enough at their stage of development (despite the good record of young horses in this race).
 
Desert Orchid said:
I didn't look at the 1.30 Wincanton but I wouldn't put you off Boreham Bill even if I can't see me backing it myself.
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I just placed a small each way Yankee. I took 80/1 with Hillls 5 places, so can't complain about value!

Good luck with your longshots today.
 
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I can only see 66s on oddschecker on my phone with Hills.

Overall this was the hardest days jumps racing to decipher I've seen all season. One or two probable good things but very short odds to boot.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Captain Drake 33/1 6pl - first-time pieces and his hurdles win earlier in the season suggested he was much-improved and entitled to be even better over fences. He did jump like a piano stool last time and will need to buck up on that score.
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A modest little return to cover the longshots on the day.
 
Marb said:
A couple of longshots I feel like giving a good shout to tomorrow.

Wincanton

1.30 Martha Brae. She's still an unexposed horse who showed a bit of consistency in some novice hurdles as a youngster. She's had three handicap hurdle starts this season.

She's started well in these races, led the last twice before stopping very quickly. She's had a wind operation maybe that will do the trick. Also drops in distance which ought to suit. She still could be anything in terms of true handicap ability in relation to her actual handicap mark.

Kempton

3.30 Boreham Bill is my longshot in the Lanzarote. He put in an interesting run last time. He blundered hanging left while held up on the day. Considering these issues he did well to be there at the business end but was just done for speed at the finish.

This will be an even greater test with a much stronger gallop over this right handed track and if he's held up for a late thrust he can go close again after a decent two month break from that last performance. He has talent but consistency hasn't been his strong point in career thus far. Hopefully he can start to put that right here tomorrow at a generous price too.
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Great shout with Boreham Bill


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Marb said:
A couple of longshots I feel like giving a good shout to tomorrow.

Wincanton

1.30 Martha Brae. She's still an unexposed horse who showed a bit of consistency in some novice hurdles as a youngster. She's had three handicap hurdle starts this season.

She's started well in these races, led the last twice before stopping very quickly. She's had a wind operation maybe that will do the trick. Also drops in distance which ought to suit. She still could be anything in terms of true handicap ability in relation to her actual handicap mark.

Kempton

3.30 Boreham Bill is my longshot in the Lanzarote. He put in an interesting run last time. He blundered hanging left while held up on the day. Considering these issues he did well to be there at the business end but was just done for speed at the finish.

This will be an even greater test with a much stronger gallop over this right handed track and if he's held up for a late thrust he can go close again after a decent two month break from that last performance. He has talent but consistency hasn't been his strong point in career thus far. Hopefully he can start to put that right here tomorrow at a generous price too.
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What a good choice Marb.very well done mate.nice one.
 
Thanks Marb! Clicked onto the race just before the off and remembered what you’d said. Just got on as the tapes went up!
 
Thanks everyone. I thought it was prime material for this thread and I'm glad Moehat did it as she loves a good longshot!
 
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Brilliant !
Well done Marb.
Couldn't fancy any of them so had some shrapnel on him for interest. Brightened up my day.Ta!
 
Truthily though, Boreham Bill should never have been a 66/1 to one shot on form anyway, imho. How he went off 66s with me getting 80's for my wee yankee I'll never know. The volatility of the market did this I guess. I just wish I'd trusted my own judgement more by doing a decent each way single on the horse. With him being such a big price I simply assumed having him in an each way yankee would be enough, but in hindsight I should have done the each way single.
 
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Top tipping Martin. Superb.

I've been out of commission for a few days, and given he's a horse I like it definitely would have prompted me to back him. As a consequence of only just surfacing for air for the first time in a few days I didn't have a penny on.

It's definitely good to get a big one in the back so early in the year, and well done for putting it up on here.
 
Fairyhouse 3.30 Thimbleweed, each way.

Thimbleweed was formerly trained by Ralph Beckett. This could run well on its now reduced handicap hurdle mark. A small each way for me. Above and beyond everything else, she has a nice name, so, there you go.

I might put in a back to lay off in running too.
 
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I just thought I might as well get this one formally on the thread.

Betfair Hurdle, Solo 28/1.

The reasoning is all on the thread dedicated to the race. If they were serious when they talked about the horse in the same breath as Zarkandar (won this race off 151) after last season's Adonis, he should be a single-figure price.

I got 38 to coffee money last week on Betfair. His price might well go the same way as PD'O's last year when I took 14/1 ante-post and he won at something like 33/1 but if he drifts again I'll just go in again.

Obviously his price is based on his poor form since the Adonis but I'm happy to strike a line through every one of those runs given how they campaigned Pic D'Orhy ahead of his win in this race last season.

I was tempted to put it on the Will Win thread but chickened out :lol:
 
In opposition to DO (granted, not always a wise move), I'll put up Llandinabo Lad in the Betfair Hurdle - 20/1 Hills: shorter everywhere else except Exchange.

Gets in here off same mark/weight as Solo, but has a much more progressive profile (imho). Came out the Kennel Gate best at the weights, despite not having race run to suit. Will want to be held-up off a strong-pace in a big field (more or less guaranteed here). Yard continues to click-along nicely, and novices have a good recent record in the race.

I like this one a lot.
 
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