The 2021 Longshot Thread

Sounds like the type I'll end up backing too, GH. Just isn't on my radar yet as I had never heard of it until you mentioned it a week or so ago and I haven't got round to checking it out.

I reckon I've just been obsessing a wee bit about what mark they were engineering for Solo!
 
We'll need to rename this to the Betfair hurdle thread then because my arra has landed on a 50/1 chance; Highway One o Two.

He was 3/3 in novice hurdles, culminating in a fairly impressive win in the Dovecote. That race is proving to offer much stronger form than the aforementioned Adonis with the third home Kid Commando taking the listed handicap at Ascot earlier this season off 136, the fourth home; Buzz running 3rd in the Welsh Champion before hosing up in an Ascot class 2 off 137 and then narrowly failing to back that up off 148 behind Not So Sleepy. Two places further back in 4th in that Not So Sleepy race was Benson, running off a mark of 137 having previously gone 3/3 so far this season, most recently with a listed handicap win at Ascot. Prior to that run of three successive wins Benson finished off last season by also running in the Dovecote - he finished 8th, 32 lengths behind Highway One o Two.

So of the Dovecote runners...

West Cork 2nd, beaten just over 4 lengths was highly thought by Skelton but hasn't run since
Kid Commando 3rd, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. Now rated 140
Buzz 4th, beaten 17 1/2 lengths. Entered here (also has a speculative entry in the Champion hurdle) off 152
Benson 7th, beaten 32 lengths. Now rated 137

That is strong form and entitles Highway One o Two to a mark in the region of high 140s at least and yet he gets in here off 141 and actually receives 11lb from Buzz having beaten him convincingly last time they met off levels. Buzz is currently fourth fav for this.

The downside - hence the price - is that he's had an aborted novice chase campaign after falling on debut (when fav to beat Hitman) and then unseating next time out.

His subsequent run over hurdles can surely be forgiven as they'd no doubt wanted to give him a confidence boosting run back over them before aiming to exploit a lenient mark.

He'll love the likely soft ground we get in February and 50/1 is a crazy price.
 
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I'd agree with you Wilson, also the last run over hurdles, he drifted like a barge on the day from 5's out to 11's I think .
The next day the trainer announced that there was a bug in the yard affecting a few of their runners.
 
wilsonl said:
We'll need to rename this to the Betfair hurdle thread then because my arra has landed on a 50/1 chance; Highway One o Two.

He was 3/3 in novice hurdles, culminating in a fairly impressive win in the Dovecote. That race is proving to offer much stronger form than the aforementioned Adonis with the third home Kid Commando taking the listed handicap at Ascot earlier this season off 136, the fourth home; Buzz running 3rd in the Welsh Champion before hosing up in an Ascot class 2 off 137 and then narrowly failing to back that up off 148 behind Not So Sleepy. Two places further back in 4th in that Not So Sleepy race was Benson, running off a mark of 137 having previously gone 3/3 so far this season, most recently with a listed handicap win at Ascot. Prior to that run of three successive wins Benson finished off last season by also running in the Dovecote - he finished 8th, 32 lengths behind Highway One o Two.

So of the Dovecote runners...

West Cork 2nd, beaten just over 4 lengths was highly thought by Skelton but hasn't run since
Kid Commando 3rd, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. Now rated 140
Buzz 4th, beaten 17 1/2 lengths. Entered here (also has a speculative entry in the Champion hurdle) off 152
Benson 7th, beaten 32 lengths. Now rated 137

That is strong form and entitles Highway One o Two to a mark in the region of high 140s at least and yet he gets in here off 141 and actually receives 11lb from Buzz having beaten him convincingly last time they met off levels. Buzz is currently fourth fav for this.

The downside - hence the price - is that he's had an aborted novice chase campaign after falling on debut (when fav to beat Hitman) and then unseating next time out.

His subsequent run over hurdles can surely be forgiven as they'd no doubt wanted to give him a confidence boosting run back over them before aiming to exploit a lenient mark.

He'll love the likely soft ground we get in February and 50/1 is a crazy price.
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I've completed my trawl of the weights and followed you in, wilsonl, pretty much for all the reasons you mention, plus anticipated improvement into the second season. I could only get 40/1 but that's still too long assuming it gets there.
 
Marb said:
The horse was formerly trained by Willie Mullins, before switching to Venetia Williams yard about two years ago.

Upon changing trainer, Didero Vallis won on his second and third start over fences, over distances which appeared to make him look like a 2M4F chaser.

The past eighteen months or so, the horses best performances were when fifth in the Brown Plate at the Cheltenham festival behind Siruh Du Lac.

He was then second on boxing day 2019 at Wetherby, when splitting race winner Top Ville Ben, and the eventual third horse horse home Lake View Lad.

Top Ville Ben and Lake View Lad are both very good chasers on their day, which is illustrated by the fact they're both rated in the 160's now. They are the type of horses who could run in something like the Ultima Chase at the festival with every chance in their own right.

I'm interested in Didero Vallis off a mark of 130 on Saturday. This also happens to be his last winning mark, but this 3M6F test will be a totally different test of stamina which he may actually revel in.

I just think he's shown plenty over the shorter distances, showing that there is talent that has probably yet to be fully discovered. He may out run big odds in this different type of chase, the real staying contest and jumping contest that it is.

I'll have a look the best odds and terms nearer the race time.
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Ah, interesting times.

Didero Vallis runs in the classic chase at Warwick tomorrow. This race probably a tad easier than his entry in the Welsh National last week. I have to back him in this now!!

He's 16/1 best priced but maybe someone will offer up 20s in which case he's my longshot tomorrow. The stable had three winners yesterday didn't they?
 
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Marb said:
Ah, interesting times.

Didero Vallis runs in the classic chase at Warwick tomorrow. This race probably a tad easier than his entry in the Welsh National last week. I have to back him in this now!!

He's 16/1 best priced but maybe someone will offer up 20s in which case he's my longshot tomorrow. The stable had three winners yesterday didn't they?
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The three winners were on Wednesday, but more significantly were all ridden by Charlie Deutsch - does the fact that he rides the other Venita horse not concern you?
 
Nah not really.

Someone said something on this forum the other day, about the ability or capability of jockeys on given horses sometimes being exaggerated.

If the horse is good enough, Tom Scu is fine with me.
 
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Marb said:
Nah not really.

Someone said something on this forum the other day, about the ability or capability of jockeys on given horses sometimes being exaggerated.

If the horse is good enough, Tom Scu is fine with me.
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My point was more being that Deutsch would obviously have had first choice and chose the other - I'm assuming he had the choice?
 
I think jockeys tend to pick horses on who they perceive has the best, recent/relevant form.

The fact his stablemate has more compelling recent form won't make any difference in terms of how Didero Vallis performs, imho. Didero is a seriously well handicapped horse.

I'm holding out for 20's or bigger.
 
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I've taken the 20's each way. He might go bigger tomorrow or tonight but I'm happy.

Didero running several pounds out of the weights to boot, but I'm not overly concerned.
 
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An ante-post longshot for the Festival:

Cepage 40/1 NRNB (PP) Ryanair

I'm coming up with G1 figures for his Chepstow win the other day. The Ryanair is his only current festival entry although it's possible he goes for a handicap instead, hence I took the lower odds with the concession.

It's arguably the hottest race of the meeting but if my figure is correct he wouldn't have many to fear, assuming they also run.
 
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I always think of that demolition job that Cepage did at Newbury. When he runs it always makes me think of Liam.
 
There's about nine horses showing blue on oddschecker in the classic chase.

This means no one has a crystal ball into the race. It's a good sign if you're backing an outsider.

See what the market does tomorrow.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
An ante-post longshot for the Festival:

Cepage 40/1 NRNB (PP) Ryanair

I'm coming up with G1 figures for his Chepstow win the other day. The Ryanair is his only current festival entry although it's possible he goes for a handicap instead, hence I took the lower odds with the concession.

It's arguably the hottest race of the meeting but if my figure is correct he wouldn't have many to fear, assuming they also run.
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Running him in the Ultima last year instead of the Plate was a horrendous call.
 
Looks like I've only got one longshot for today.

Warwick 1.15 Dustin Des Mottes 50/1

This is the Sky Pirate - Amoola Gold race so it's easy to see why this one is a big price but there has to be a chance Sky Pirate is there to warm up for something bigger and Amoola Gold is up 5lbs for not winning last time so there has to be a chance he's nearing a seasonal plateau, or might he have a bigger target somewhere down the line too?

These two could well dominate the finish but they could also under-perform in what is a pretty modest race.

Dustin Des Mottes requires a bit of leap of faith but he had some decent form when rated in the mid-130s and gets in here off 128. He only weakened after the last over two and a half at Stratford on his penultimate start (off 132) and his heavy Ludlow defeat might have come too soon after that.

He has since been bought out of the Newland yard so maybe the change of scenery will perk him up.

Obviously it's an exercise in desperate straw-clutching but on his best form he should be no bigger than 10/1 in a race with credible doubts about the opposition.
 
Another festival longshot:

Paul's Saga 20/1 Stayers' Hurdle

I don't follow the French form too closely - perhaps Martin or Bachelors Hall can tell us more - but when I looked at the adjusted RPRs for the Stayers' Hurdle, seeing this one second top rated (behind Benie Des Dieux who probably won't go for this) pricked my curiosity.

She seems to have come pretty much from out of the blue this season (on RPRs) but won the Grande Course de Haies, beating the 30/100f L'Autonomie, giving her 5lbs into the bargain, 10 lengths clear of a subsequent G1 winner in Galop Marin (who beat her in that race).

There's bound to be somebody on here who studies these things more than me but I don't recall RPRs going very high for French form so these high ratings in G1 races suggest the French stayers are pretty decent.

25/1 is available but I played safe(r) with the NRNB concession. The chances are if she turns up she'll be a single-figure price and if RPRs are accurate she could well win.

She just strikes me as a possible bit of value.
 
Two longshots, as much for the sake of getting them on record as anything else...

Yesterday I backed Mother Earth 25/1 for the 1000G. (I might have put it on the ante-post thread - if I didn't I meant to.)

I was checking out Simon Rowlands's blog on cadence/frequency and something caught my eye and when checking it out I came across Mother Earth's run at Keeneland and I think she would probably get a big mark-up for it so she might end up the Coolmore #1 for the race.

Also, snowed in, locked down and therefore with time to kill, I followed Marb's lead and took a look at Meydan today, just the turf races.

In the 3.05, I've taken 22/1 Halimi, 4 places. This was with the gentleman Jim Bolger until his retirement and was developing an overall improving profile, including a smart-looking win in the Petingo (£90-odd k). He's 5lbs higher here but might improve more than that. He's now with Simon Crisford, a trainer I really rate (excellent strike rate) and the horse might be less exposed than most of the higher rated horses but he's very near the top on my own figures anyway so the price strikes me as a bit of value, especially with the extra place on offer.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the 3.05, I've taken 22/1 Halimi, 4 places. This was with the gentleman Jim Bolger until his retirement and was developing an overall improving profile, including a smart-looking win in the Petingo (£90-odd k). He's 5lbs higher here but might improve more than that. He's now with Simon Crisford, a trainer I really rate (excellent strike rate) and the horse might be less exposed than most of the higher rated horses but he's very near the top on my own figures anyway so the price strikes me as a bit of value, especially with the extra place on offer.
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Kept on for fourth. First Flat bet of the year to run so I'll take that as a warm-up :)
 
Just getting a wee bit ahead of things for Saturday:

Ascot 3.00 Louis' Vac Pouch 33/1 5pl (Sky) - trainer has a happy knack of landing gambles with unlikely types at this track on Saturdays with only a handful of runners per year. He was rated 144 when running behind (hampered) Simply The Betts at the festival and gets in here off 132 following some modest runs which obviously require forgiving. At the price with the extra two places, I reckon it's worth a wee bite.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just getting a wee bit ahead of things for Saturday:

Ascot 3.00 Louis' Vac Pouch 33/1 5pl (Sky) - trainer has a happy knack of landing gambles with unlikely types at this track on Saturdays with only a handful of runners per year. He was rated 144 when running behind (hampered) Simply The Betts at the festival and gets in here off 132 following some modest runs which obviously require forgiving. At the price with the extra two places, I reckon it's worth a wee bite.
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Came in to 25/1 and blue generally, which had my hopes up but it's out to 40s generally now so I've gone in again with the BOG and fifth place offered. Just fun money as per with these bets.
 
Now look what you’ve done, Desert. I NEVER back at these prices, but the thread intrigues me. I would have posted up I K Brunel, Ascot 1:50, but he’s come in from 22/1 to 14/1 atm. I’ve had a little interest (God forbid).
 
I can never get the Kirby horses right but hate it if they win/place and I don’t back them. I’ve also backed Jonniesofa in the same race. It’s a long way from the Dobbin’s to Ascot and he won really well when I listened to his last race in the radio. He has come in from the 33/1 I backed him at last night.
 
Plumpton

4.20 Magens Moon is available at 20/1. She started off in Ireland with top Irish trainers but now trained by Phil York. She won two handicap hurdles here a little while ago on soft and good ground. She might have needed her last run which was her first start of the season. She races off a mark of 99 tomorrow, which is identical to her last winning mark at Plumpton. She's possibly still fairly handicapped over hurdles.
 
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