The 2021 Longshot Thread

Just a silly £1 ew on ACCIDENTAL AGENT 130 boosted to 175/1

A few weeks ago they were talking to the trainer and she seemed to think he was better than a hcapper when asked which hcap she was going to run in.

The other horse I've done that qualifies is STONE OF DESTINY 240 33/1
I lost my money a/p for the wokingham.i can never get to grips with trainers.maybe they want to try and get a couple of pounds off for a future race like the Portland which he won last year.anyway 33s is a nice price.
 
Outsider said:
Just a silly £1 ew on ACCIDENTAL AGENT 130 boosted to 175/1

A few weeks ago they were talking to the trainer and she seemed to think he was better than a hcapper when asked which hcap she was going to run in.
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Nothing silly about it, Outsider. I just hope the price doesn't disappear in the morning!
 
Outsider said:
Just a silly £1 ew on ACCIDENTAL AGENT 130 boosted to 175/1

A few weeks ago they were talking to the trainer and she seemed to think he was better than a hcapper when asked which hcap she was going to run in.
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I've now joined you, Outsider. I took 150/1 this morning. I also took 50/1 ew without the favourite to bigger stakes, which strikes me as even better value. It allows for a top four finish so long as Palace Pier is one of them.
 
In the last today I've taken Hyanna at 28/1 to six places. You can get 33/1 (boostable with Hills) to five places but I've wussed out for the extra place with Sky.

She ran well on fast ground here and at York last summer off 97 and 99 and gets in here off 96 and is entitled to be in the mix. She was entitled to need her seasonal return and improved a bit last time but reportedly hung in both races. I wouldn't be surprised if she were targeting this race all along.

Who knows, she might give EJH a day to remember :)
 
Coventry - Secret Strength 80/1, 6 places - Stablemate of the favourite but with Tom Marquand booked. Only 4lbs behind the fav on RPRs and with Hannon you just never know...
 
AAAAaaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh.... I DON'T BELIEEEEEVE IT!!!

I had Reshoun top rated but didn't back it. I have no idea why not. I think I must have thought it was only 16/1 or something. I just didn't even look for it in the betting.

That really is one that got away. It;s so unlike me not to back a top-rated longshot.

Still, the hefty each-way on Elysian Flame got a large portion of today's outlay back with two races still to go.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
AAAAaaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh.... I DON'T BELIEEEEEVE IT!!!

I had Reshoun top rated but didn't back it. I have no idea why not. I think I must have thought it was only 16/1 or something. I just didn't even look for it in the betting.

That really is one that got away. It;s so unlike me not to back a top-rated longshot.

Still, the hefty each-way on Elysian Flame got a large portion of today's outlay back with two races still to go.
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Yes Reshoun the one that got away today.

I fancied it for the Ceserewitch last season.

He was 16/1 24/36 hours ago so the drift to 66/1 put me off.

Nevermind.
 
Desert Orchid said:
AAAAaaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh.... I DON'T BELIEEEEEVE IT!!!

I had Reshoun top rated but didn't back it. I have no idea why not. I think I must have thought it was only 16/1 or something. I just didn't even look for it in the betting.

That really is one that got away. It;s so unlike me not to back a top-rated longshot.

Still, the hefty each-way on Elysian Flame got a large portion of today's outlay back with two races still to go.
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Seems like we both are kicking ourselves.(see my post earlier)
 
If it’s any consolation to anyone I often throw a few pennies at Ian Williams runners after meeting him years ago at a Cheltenham preview and realising how canny a trainer he was so I did back Reshoun today. Which has given me enough money to throw more pennies around. My account is actually £5 in profit. The trouble is there are more and more trainers that I’m scared not to back, the worst one being Alan King. And I backed Arecibo ew because I follow Tom Morley on racing radio and I hoped that he would recoup some of his purchase price. So, all in all, a good day.
 
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Excellent, moe!

I'm going to be mob-handed in the Hunt Cup today but most of them would qualify for this thread so I don't mind taking the scattergrun approach.

First up is Revich 66/1 8pl - I've had this one down as a Chester specialist and backed him accordingly there last time from a favourable draw only for him to completely blow the start, which cost him the race. His earlier runs this season, though, suggested he might not really need the quirks of Chester and he's blinkered for the first time. I haven't thought too much about the draw so far but he's in the middle so I'm trusting Hayley Turner to choose wisely. If Revich had won last time he'd probably be at least 5lbs higher than he is and that should put him in the mix. He isn't top rated and even those 5lbs allowed wouldn't guarantee a win but 66/1 to eight places is far too generous.

I have a bigger bet on Eastern World 25/1 (boostable) to 6 places. I was on this one in the Lincoln for which he was backed into 5/2 favourite off a pound lower. He went out tamely on the day and wasn't much better next time at Newmarket but he's had a break since then. I half-expected Godolphin to take him out to let Path Of Thunder, who was about half his odds in the market, take his chance but they're sticking with this one with Buick up.

I'll post my other qualifiers through the morning.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Excellent, moe!

I'm going to be mob-handed in the Hunt Cup today but most of them would qualify for this thread so I don't mind taking the scattergrun approach.

First up is Revich 66/1 8pl - I've had this one down as a Chester specialist and backed him accordingly there last time from a favourable draw only for him to completely blow the start, which cost him the race. His earlier runs this season, though, suggested he might not really need the quirks of Chester and he's blinkered for the first time. I haven't thought too much about the draw so far but he's in the middle so I'm trusting Hayley Turner to choose wisely. If Revich had won last time he'd probably be at least 5lbs higher than he is and that should put him in the mix. He isn't top rated and even those 5lbs allowed wouldn't guarantee a win but 66/1 to eight places is far too generous.
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It wasn't a favourable draw DO...the horse has reverted to his old habit of missing the break...Inside at Chester and you miss the break is curtains..
 
All the blue is for horses drawn high....
It's hard to predict one day to the next at Ascot..

My initial three against the field:

Beat Le Bon.
Finest Sound.
Bugle Major.

All seemingly drawn on the wrong side...hay ho
 
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Maxbet said:
It wasn't a favourable draw DO...the horse has reverted to his old habit of missing the break...Inside at Chester and you miss the break is curtains..
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Yes, but I'd seen him break fast there and make all. That's what I was anticipating. A modest start today might help him as they might blast away and slow down late.
 
Maxbet said:
All the blue is for horses drawn high....
It's hard to predict one day to the next at Ascot..

My initial three against the field:

Beat Le Bon.
Finest Sound.
Bugle Major.

All seemingly drawn on the wrong side...hay ho
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I wouldn't be at all surprised if low numbers dominated. There might be a golden highway up the near rail.

I'll be on so many they'll be spread across the track like Hayley Turner's legs!
 
Followed you in with Bugle Major at 100/1 (SkyBet 8 places). Has some decent French form chasing home the 115 rated Magny Cours before Hughes bought him


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The Ex French Pascal Bary trained runner Bugle Major, a Juddmonte cast off and now with Richard Hughes, could represent a fair bit of value at 100/1 8 places Skybet.

His sire Mizzen Mast produces horses that love to hear their hooves rattle. Can be excused his run over 1m2f at Newmarket on soft ground after his stable move and now back to a mile for the first time on a fast surface, the distance he's been cruising along at in previous runs.

His last run before his move was a good second to the A Fabre trained, Godolphin owned, Magny Cours, who was raised to 115 for the run. Getting up in the final 100 yds and asserting close home.

Bugle Major was given a rating of 99 by the English handicapper, dropped to 98 for his defeat at Newmarket....That could mean he is a stone well in here, coupled with the fast ground and a front running Charge of the light Brigade style, catch me if you can run...."da da, da durghhhh"
 
Maxbet said:
The Ex French Pascal Bary trained runner Bugle Major, a Juddmonte cast off and now with Richard Hughes, could represent a fair bit of value at 100/1 8 places Skybet.

His sire Mizzen Mast produces horses that love to hear their hooves rattle. Can be excused his run over 1m2f at Newmarket on soft ground after his stable move and now back to a mile for the first time on a fast surface, the distance he's been cruising along at in previous runs.

His last run before his move was a good second to the A Fabre trained, Godolphin owned, Magny Cours, who was raised to 115 for the run. Getting up in the final 100 yds and asserting close home.

Bugle Major was given a rating of 99 by the English handicapper, dropped to 98 for his defeat at Newmarket....That could mean he is a stone well in here, coupled with the fast ground and a front running Charge of the light Brigade style, catch me if you can run...."da da, da durghhhh"
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I like your thinking on this horse as I was thinking the same last night.

I also like DO's thinking on Revich. The two of them are good long shots although the realist in me thinks Irish Admiral could be a different horse today after a bad run at Epsom. William Haggas is a trainer who knows how to land these handicaps and Irish Admiral cannot be ignored off such a low weight.
 
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Trais Fluors Hunt Cup 33/1

I’m a daily reader of the site but rarely post which isn’t really the idea is it!! So here goes

I thought Trais Fluors won well last time out at Sandown on fast ground having dropped down the weights. Runs here under a penalty. Has favoured RPR marks for course and distance and is obviously in form. Is drawn on a wing not sure how that’ll work out though. Worth a few quid to find out at that price I reckon


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Hunt Cup - Lucander 40/1, 6 places - not allowing a Reshoun... This one is top rated with me. That said, I anticipate one or two might improve past it but he also has some scope to improve with only one run this season. The trainer has a very good record in other handicaps at the meeting but has been very quiet in this one so maybe he quite likes its chances. Worth a pop at the price.

Also - Ascension 33/1, 8 places (40s to fewer places) - second-top on my figures but I've taken a generous view of his win last time out and Varian is a trainer I rate very highly. I've also got reasons for believing the horse might be some way better than the bare form, which would allow some leeway for over-rating him to start with.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hunt Cup - Lucander 40/1, 6 places - not allowing a Reshoun... This one is top rated with me. That said, I anticipate one or two might improve past it but he also has some scope to improve with only one run this season. The trainer has a very good record in other handicaps at the meeting but has been very quiet in this one so maybe he quite likes its chances. Worth a pop at the price.

Also - Ascension 33/1, 8 places (40s to fewer places) - second-top on my figures but I've taken a generous view of his win last time out and Varian is a trainer I rate very highly. I've also got reasons for believing the horse might be some way better than the bare form, which would allow some leeway for over-rating him to start with.
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If the ground was heavy, Lucander would be 14/1....there in....Stone better with cut
 
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