The 2021 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Yes, on my radar and worth a closer look.
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Danyah 4th in the Lincoln is 4/1 but with a clear run history writer might have beaten him.
I've took 22s boosted to 25s which is long compared to danyah.
Of course he might run into trouble again.i love hcaps.
 
Never really got to show his form in just three runs last season. Good Trainer, good jockey and 8lbs lower. Lots to like.
 
Newbury Spring Cup - Bear Force One 40/1 5pl - second-top on my ratings but not noted as an improver so vulnerable to such types. No guarantee the top-rated (Oh This Is Us) will back up his good midweek run so could end up winning by default. Unlikely, I admit, but probably should be no more than 16s on form. I'd prefer a more positive jockey booking too, I suppose, and if today is just about getting his mark back down a bit then 100/1 wouldn't be value.
 
Scottish Cup today - Celtic to win 3-0 33/1 - wishful thinking on my part but Celtic have played the better in the last two meetings and been unlucky. With Lennon out of the way Celtic looked more like their old selves in a recent 6-0 win against Livingston and I can see the game going their way today. Whether it will be by three goals to nil is another matter but I can always hope :lol:
 
I took 20s about Snow Lantern for the 1,000 Guineas a couple of weeks ago. She has just won the first at Newbury nicely. OK only a maiden but she’s beautifully bred being by Frankel out of Sky Lantern.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Fred Darling - Ville De Grace 25/1 4pl - doesn't hold an entry for the Guineas so no reason for it to be 'prepping' for anything bigger and Kingscote is 5/11 for the trainer who is in blinding form. How often do Stoutes go off at 25/1? Sky are going 22s to 5 places for the more careful.
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Fifth at 66/1 beaten a nose for fourth. Hope somebody snaffled it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Scottish Grand National - Chidswell 40/1 6pl - only 2lbs higher than when a strong-staying winner of the 2019 Grimthorpe but earlier this season would probably have run away with a good-ground staying handicap at Kelso off 6lbs higher than now had he not repeatedly jumped right. There's obviously a chance it's a habit he's developing but he can jump straight. Either way, I have him very well handicapped and no 40/1 shot.
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Well, he got me the place money (I went in again for the seventh place at 40s this morning) but I need to see the final circuit again. It looked to me like he pulled up at the end of the back straight!

Really disappointing from Soldier Of Love who went out like a light after a minor mistake.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, he got me the place money (I went in again for the seventh place at 40s this morning) but I need to see the final circuit again. It looked to me like he pulled up at the end of the back straight!

Really disappointing from Soldier Of Love who went out like a light after a minor mistake.
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Every Nicholls horse at Ayr ran somewhere been dreadful and utterly abysmal.
 
BOB MAHLER 33/1 whitbread.
Makes the odd mistake but I cant see why plan of attack is 4/1 and Bob is 33/1.2yrs ago they ran close to each other in the kim Muir and this year plan of attack fell and bought down Bob.
 
Outsider said:
BOB MAHLER 33/1 whitbread.
Makes the odd mistake but I cant see why plan of attack is 4/1 and Bob is 33/1.2yrs ago they ran close to each other in the kim Muir and this year plan of attack fell and bought down Bob.
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Makes sense to me, O - so I've followed you in.:thumbsup:
 
Outsider said:
BOB MAHLER 33/1 whitbread.
Makes the odd mistake but I cant see why plan of attack is 4/1 and Bob is 33/1.2yrs ago they ran close to each other in the kim Muir and this year plan of attack fell and bought down Bob.
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Bob Mahler is, I think, top-rated on my figures too (haven't tabulated them and there are minor tweaks I still have to make) apart from maybe The Young Master's best old form but I have him down as in serial decline. However, he did show a little more last time so I was thinking maybe some sickness insurance would be in order.

I'll probably wait now until tomorrow to see what enhanced terms are on offer.

But as someone said on the other thread, it really is a very disappointing renewal.
 
Outsider said:
BOB MAHLER 33/1 whitbread.
Makes the odd mistake but I cant see why plan of attack is 4/1 and Bob is 33/1.2yrs ago they ran close to each other in the kim Muir and this year plan of attack fell and bought down Bob.
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Thanks for that. Bob is a bit of a cliff horse of mine. He was mentioned in my jumping prospects book which I haven’t got with me at the moment so I’d forgotten about him. I do have a soft spot for The Young Master, though, and would love him to win. Admirable horse.
 
moe said:
Thanks for that. Bob is a bit of a cliff horse of mine. He was mentioned in my jumping prospects book which I haven’t got with me at the moment so I’d forgotten about him. I do have a soft spot for The Young Master, though, and would love him to win. Admirable horse.
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Normally I wouldnt back a 12yr old and the winner has usually ran in the last 2 months.but after vintage clouds won the ultima and this is a poor renewal I could well be tempted.
 
Hoping he gets slightly bigger than the 16/1 w/o Frodon for the Oaksey Chase tomorrow in which case that would be the bet, but given the rules, I'll put up a speculative 66/1 shot Militarian for the race tomorrow. Thought he ran a great race in the Bowl for over 2m4f before the pace eventually caught him out and was pulled up. Others had harder race finishing legless behind Clan des Obeaux. Don't like Born Survivor and Mister Fisher could struggle jumping wise with Frodon taking them along. Doing both w/o and smaller stake straight.
 
HawkWing said:
Hoping he gets slightly bigger than the 16/1 w/o Frodon for the Oaksey Chase tomorrow in which case that would be the bet, but given the rules, I'll put up a speculative 66/1 shot Militarian for the race tomorrow. Thought he ran a great race in the Bowl for over 2m4f before the pace eventually caught him out and was pulled up. Others had harder race finishing legless behind Clan des Obeaux. Don't like Born Survivor and Mister Fisher could struggle jumping wise with Frodon taking them along. Doing both w/o and smaller stake straight.
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Militarian certainly has a good cruising speed. I noticed it in the Bowl too and surely a drop in class and trip can pay dividends but they're in danger of ruining a good mark taking on this class.

Is it possible he is just a dog who could keep up with any horse at any level but not want to finish his races?

It was a very good little race to watch. My emotions were all over the place, partly wanting Militarian to do well for the thread, partly Mister Fisher for the forumites who backed it and partly Frodon because he and Frost are brilliant for racing.
 
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Halftime/fulltime Rangers/St Johnstone 70/1 (6.30pm kick-off)

According to some reports, Saints were unlucky only to get a point the other night. One report said they 'pummelled' them at times. Callum Davidson has them well organised and arguably punching above their weight. This is their cup final and even if the home side get in front early Saints won't give in, I don't think.

Saints came from behind to earn the draw so they're not afraid to attack if they have to.

I didn't think I'd get any more than 33/1 for this, 40s absolute tops, so it's worth a very small interest.
 
Out all day and only just caught the highlights.

The bet fell at the first hurdle with the score 0-0 at half-time but kudos to Saints for rallying with pretty much the last play of extra time to force penalties, which they won.

Saints' keeper Clark was arguably man of the match but the TV analysis highlighted their organisation so coach Davidson also deserves lots of credit.
 
Punchestown 4.50 - Cerberus 33/1 6pl - I'm backing four in this race but this is the only one that qualifies (or is likely to) for the thread. I've got half my intended bet on and am holding off on the other half until the morning in case the odds lengthen and I can get the BOG. It looks to me like Cerberus (33/1) has been looked after in two runs this season after taking in last season’s Triumph. He’s entitled to end up much better than his current mark although his Flat form in the interim has been modest too. He was rated 140 in the Triumph and really should be running to around 150 by now so his mark of 138 should be exploitable.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Punchestown 4.50 - Cerberus 33/1 6pl - I'm backing four in this race but this is the only one that qualifies (or is likely to) for the thread. I've got half my intended bet on and am holding off on the other half until the morning in case the odds lengthen and I can get the BOG. It looks to me like Cerberus (33/1) has been looked after in two runs this season after taking in last season’s Triumph. He’s entitled to end up much better than his current mark although his Flat form in the interim has been modest too. He was rated 140 in the Triumph and really should be running to around 150 by now so his mark of 138 should be exploitable.
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He's not going to be bigger than 33/1 in an extra place race in my opinion.
 
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