The 2021 Longshot Thread

Diamond Geezer said:
Consider this. The Irish have now won all six handicap hurdles at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. They have one runner in the last race at Aintree today, a handicap hurdle, which finished well ahead of Tronador last time out. 10/1 I think.
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Relax, guys, I've jinxed it :)
 
Given the way some of these races are panning out I've decided to take out some sickness insurance on Duc Des Genievres at 40/1 withh PP paying three places on the race.
 
Stayers' Hurdle - William Henry 28/1 - this is likely to get longer in the morning but I'm just as likely to forget to back it as I'll be so busy with the family's National bets. On all known form he really can't win but there have been a few this week we could have same the same about. The rate of success of Sam Thomas's horses is pretty phenomenal so at least he could run to the very best of his form and take advantage of others not doing so.
 
Outsider said:
We all have views on horses,some right,most wrong but when I first started watching for eye catchers a horse caught my eye in Ireland I was certain wasnt trying with a view to hcaps.it took him a long time but eventually it won.i think it was backed from 12s into 6s and guess what,I missed it.well it is now down to run in the topham so I've risked a little,no point lumping on in case it doesnt run.
SNUGSBOROUGH HALL 25/1 and a little win on betfair at 79/1.
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4th so a nice profit.
 
GN - Lake View Lad 66/1 - this is one of those ones which, if it wins, you're looking back through the form and asking why didn't I back it.

He flopped in the race two years ago when just 14/1 but that was off the back of a big run in the Ultima and earlier this season he beat Santini, Native River and Frodon here. That might be misleading form but it might not and he got a lovely jog round in rear behind Cloth Cap last time. He's since had a wind op and wears cheekpieces for the first time and they've persuaded Brian Hughes to take the ride.

Oh, and I'm seriously considering backing Potters Corner too...
 
No one will ever back more horses than I do! Probably because I get so annoyed with myself if a long shot wins and I haven’t picked up on the clues (they’re usually there to be found afterwards). Even more so now that I now tend to ignore bad previous runs!
 
tiggers1972 said:
DO it's probably quicker for you to tell us the horses you haven't backed in the national!

:lol:
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That's the annual family joke but I'm often the one doing the lap of honour round the coffee table at the end of the race :lol:

As I said earlier in the thread it's an approach that has served me well for years now. If the profit is only a small one, it's still a profit!

And to be honest, I don't mind losing if that's how it goes. I just love the occasion.
 
Nothing worse than getting to the halfway stage and having no runners left to cheer for. All I aim for is to break even. Anything else is a bonus. Mind you, this year there are several horses I’d love to see win even though I haven’t backed them, Cloth Cap being one of them.
 
moe said:
Nothing worse than getting to the halfway stage and having no runners left to cheer for. All I aim for is to break even. Anything else is a bonus. Mind you, this year there are several horses I’d love to see win even though I haven’t backed them, Cloth Cap being one of them.
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Gutting.one year I backed about 4 and I think 3 went at the first.and the other quickly followed.i felt empty.
 
Kilfilum cross 415 40/1 if he could return to any sort of form like chelt 2019 and 2020 it would have a squeak.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Stayers' Hurdle - William Henry 28/1 - this is likely to get longer in the morning but I'm just as likely to forget to back it as I'll be so busy with the family's National bets. On all known form he really can't win but there have been a few this week we could have same the same about. The rate of success of Sam Thomas's horses is pretty phenomenal so at least he could run to the very best of his form and take advantage of others not doing so.
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Went in again at 50/1. Why not.
 
More I think about it, look at it, the more Im inclined to back Alpha Des Obeaux. Will find one or two too good, but will run into place money.

80/1 currently
 
I've flung a few quid at an each-way double today at Newmarket.

2.45 Makram - not a particularly strong race and Makram doesn’t really have the form but strikes me as the type Roger Charlton is likely to bring on substantially this season with maybe something like the Hunt Cup on the agenda, in which case he’d probably need to get the horse up about 10lbs. None of the rest looks like having that kind of improvement in them.

3.55 Double Or Bubble - She has a lovely profile and her sister Mix And Mingle was already a 100+ filly at three, won this first time out at four and went on to be rated 113. If Double Or Bubble has anywhere near that ability she should be able to cope with this field off 91.

Skybet offer extra places to lower odds so I've backed the double with them at just under 35/1. I plan to back both separately win only at the best odds elsewhere.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've flung a few quid at an each-way double today at Newmarket.

2.45 Makram - not a particularly strong race and Makram doesn’t really have the form but strikes me as the type Roger Charlton is likely to bring on substantially this season with maybe something like the Hunt Cup on the agenda, in which case he’d probably need to get the horse up about 10lbs. None of the rest looks like having that kind of improvement in them.

3.55 Double Or Bubble - She has a lovely profile and her sister Mix And Mingle was already a 100+ filly at three, won this first time out at four and went on to be rated 113. If Double Or Bubble has anywhere near that ability she should be able to cope with this field off 91.

Skybet offer extra places to lower odds so I've backed the double with them at just under 35/1. I plan to back both separately win only at the best odds elsewhere.
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Makram was a wee bit unlucky in his race, never really getting room to travel after a sluggish start but Double Or Bubble was quite impressive, I thought.

Profit secured, job done, I suppose.
 
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