The 2021 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Ante-post

Arc - Serpentine 40/1 - I reckon he could have won the race last year and have no intention of losing faith given how poor the 3yos are shaping up. Taking the price today in anticipation of an impressive comeback in the Tattersalls Gold Cup this afternoon.
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Wolverhampton 3.00 Royal Partnership 25/1 B365 - I got a tracker alert through for Secret Moment but this stablemate debutant wears the first Godolphin colours and the jockey has a better strike rate for the trainer this season than the other, Oisin Murphy no less. The trainer also operated at 37% winning strike rate (74% placed 1-4) at the track last season. Has to be worth a pop at the price.
 
Just one today.

Haydock 3.30 - Queen Jo Jo 50/1 - she's only 3lbs shy of the top-rated on RPRs so probably shouldn't be that price. She’s never run this far but she’s bred for it and it’s probably worth her giving it a try now that she’s reaching maturity. The risks are obvious but the price compensates. I'd have to say, though, that expectations are low.

I'm just a tad annoyed that another I had lined up no longer qualifies. It was generally 20s and pink last night so I decided to hold off until the guarantees kicked in but it's now much shorter and blue across the board.

However, the ew double with QJJ more than qualifies at 764/1 :lol: so hopefully Dubai Station can do a turn in the Haydock 2.30.
 
Epsom 3.45 Lawn Ranger 33/1, 4pl - handicapped to win an average renewal but is up against some decent prospects. If he can get a soft lead and kick at the right time he might steal it. He’s probably worth a small saver at the price.
 
Sorry to disagree but

Epsom 3.45
Waters Edge 28/1

Is 5lb better off with HMS President (6/1) for a 2l beating at Windsor last time. Waters Bridge was dropped out at Windsor and it was a right good run to finish so close having to go from trying to go up the rail to coming up the middle. The rain will help it's chances and drawn 1 won't matter because will be dropped in and ridden for luck off what looks like being a fast pace. Not the most progressive horse in the race by any stretch but a right good price to be with it.
 
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Slim said:
Sorry to disagree but

Epsom 3.45
Waters Edge 28/1

Is 5lb better off with HMS President (6/1) for a 2l beating at Windsor last time. Waters Bridge was dropped out at Windsor and it was a right good run to finish so close having to go from trying to go up the rail to coming up the middle. The rain will help it's chances and drawn 1 won't matter because will be dropped in and ridden for luck off what looks like being a fast pace. Not the most progressive horse in the race by any stretch but a right good price to be with it.
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I thought I was the only person in Europe who must have backed this horse today, (looking at the drift).

Stupidly I took 14s last night when I placed my fun bet each way lucky 63, so didn't get best odds guaranteed, (Hills only BOG after 10am raceday), but the other horses I did have shortened so I can't complain.

I'd be relatively happy if Waters Edge placed!

Good luck with this longshot.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Epsom 3.45 Lawn Ranger 33/1, 4pl - handicapped to win an average renewal but is up against some decent prospects. If he can get a soft lead and kick at the right time he might steal it. He’s probably worth a small saver at the price.
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Non Runner.
 
Slim said:
Sorry to disagree but

Epsom 3.45
Waters Edge 28/1

Is 5lb better off with HMS President (6/1) for a 2l beating at Windsor last time. Waters Bridge was dropped out at Windsor and it was a right good run to finish so close having to go from trying to go up the rail to coming up the middle. The rain will help it's chances and drawn 1 won't matter because will be dropped in and ridden for luck off what looks like being a fast pace. Not the most progressive horse in the race by any stretch but a right good price to be with it.
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Traded 2s. A shame they came over to the stands side but very happy to collect on 4th.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken a small poke at Gear Up at 40/1. I presume he'll run in the Dante (Johnston's only entry) and he's already got a decent level of form, having won the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud last back-end (10f, heavy) and should stay. He's already got the same RPR as Youth Spirit achieved yesterday and a nice run at York wouldn't do his chances any harm.
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Just bumping this from early May.

The price has halved through the week despite bombing in the Dante but it still qualifies for the thread.

I'm a tad concerned by how badly Dubai Fountain ran yesterday but not enough to make me want to cash out just yet.
 
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I’m still not sure about Johnston”s runners, although he’s getting them better. He’s 8 from 70 over the last fortnight compared to something like 3 from 87 a week or so ago. It’s an added question mark if his horses generally aren’t fully up to snuff.
 
barjon said:
I’m still not sure about Johnston”s runners, although he’s getting them better. He’s 8 from 70 over the last fortnight compared to something like 3 from 87 a week or so ago. It’s an added question mark if his horses generally aren’t fully up to snuff.
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He's just one of those trainers. Jekyll & Hyde.
 
I think there's more to it than that.

His strike rate earlier this season was ridiculously high but it's entirely possible a lot of them were well handicapped for one reason or another or just forward for the season. The handicappers will have been hit with hikes in their ratings and Johnston is the type just to run them frequently to get their mark back down. Those beaten runs would hit a strike rate quite heavily.

I have no doubt he is/has been plotting several up for royal Ascot and he'll also have Goodwood very much in his mind for certain types. They probably need to run down the park a couple of times until then.

When it comes to the biggest races, I don't think 'stable form' is that great an issue. It tends to boil down simply to whether the horse is good enough at that level although I have to say I was hoping for much more from Dubai Fountain. It was a real disappointment having 33/1 about one that went off at something like 4/1 only to run like a 33/1 shot.

That's been the story of my punting lately. Some of them have plummeted in price and lost. There's an element of satisfaction in beating the SP by a long way (eg Shelir yesterday) but then they go and get fvcked.
 
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Agree with that to a large extent, desert, but it does sometimes indicate the general well being of the string. The often used Johnston runner style is catch me if you can and the courageous fighting off those who try. I’ve kept raising my eyebrows recently as his horses adopting that style have been weak at the sharp end which is most unJohnstonlike. Just an impression as we’ve gone along which may be awry.
 
Being as we're after-timing, I should mention Lampang that won Thursday @ 16/1. Beaten 25l previous run and the course vet reported he coughed afterwards. Quick check of Tim Easterby'srecent runners indicated they were over it - and Bob was my uncle.:)
 
I've just had another look at the Derrinstown and decided 33/1 (4pl) is too big for Southern Lights. You can get 40s to just the three places.

He travelled as well as anything through the first half of the race but was caught flat-footed when BB started his move. He was getting up the inside late in the day and probably would have finished second but for being checked and the jockey gave up.

Wherever BB finishes, SL is entitled to be within about five or six lengths of him.

(I still don't fancy BB so this is really just in case I'm wrong :))
 
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reet hard said:
Being as we're after-timing, I should mention Lampang that won Thursday @ 16/1. Beaten 25l previous run and the course vet reported he coughed afterwards. Quick check of Tim Easterby'srecent runners indicated they were over it - and Bob was my uncle.:)
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Cruyff Turn won today (4/1) for TE, and ran badly lto in the same timeframe as Lampang.
Just reiterating that trainer fom does matter.
 
Queen Anne Stakes - Safe Voyage 66/1 - take out Palace Pier and Love and the race is no more than a glorified handicap. Safe Voyage is one of three or four on pretty much the same rating as each other but the others are much shorter and SV is emerging third top on RPRs. A couple of modest runs so far this season require forgiving but I don't have a problem with that. They'll probably over-water too so I'm not that concerned [for now] about the going. I have no idea if the plan is to run but I'm happy enough to take a wee chance at a big price.

(I'll copy this to the Ascot thread.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Queen Anne Stakes - Safe Voyage 66/1 - take out Palace Pier and Love and the race is no more than a glorified handicap. Safe Voyage is one of three or four on pretty much the same rating as each other but the others are much shorter and SV is emerging third top on RPRs. A couple of modest runs so far this season require forgiving but I don't have a problem with that. They'll probably over-water too so I'm not that concerned [for now] about the going. I have no idea if the plan is to run but I'm happy enough to take a wee chance at a big price.

(I'll copy this to the Ascot thread.)
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Not entered...lost your money there DO
 
Alert much appreciated, maxbet.

I contacted the bookie and argued that the horse may already have been withdrawn at the time I made the bet. They 'goodwill-gestured' me and voided the bet.

Fair play to them.
 
I’ve backed Wise Eagle at 33/1 for the Northumberland Plate. I know it’s a sentimental bet and I’ve no idea if he’s likely to get into the race but he’s so good on all weather tracks. Stargazers entered too so I couldn’t leave him out but Wise Eagle is our local lad dun good and I’d be beside myself with joy if he won!
 
I commend your loyalty, Moe.

I know you love this horse.

On a mark of 80 it will be difficult to get in, (bottom weight last season was on 84), but he could win another race before plate day.
 
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Thanks Marb. Pity he bombed at York the other week. I missed his win the other day. I don’t think there’s time to get another race in. Annoying thing is, just looking at the racecard, his RPR would give him a good chance in the race if Adam could get a good claimers on board.
 
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