The 2021 Longshot Thread

Cambridgeshire - Poet Of Life 25/1, 5pl - the Gosdens have a handful of entries so I'm really just trying to second-guess which will be their Cambridgeshire 'special'. This 3yo son of Frankel has only had four runs, three to get him a mark (96) and one as beaten favourite in a modest handicap which would preserve it. The chances are he won't make the cut (currently #87) so he might need to pick up a penalty to improve his chances.

I've no idea if the race might be a serious target but it's the kind of entry I'd want to be on the right side of.
 
IRISH CAMBRIDGESHIRE

got to do both of Jessie's.
BOPEDRO 33/1 7p sky
TAURAN SHAMAN 33/1 bet365

I like bopedro the best.
 
I’ve backed my beloved Wise Eagle for the Cesarewitch. No idea if he’s likely to get into the race though. He was either 33/1 or 40/1.
 
He's progressing nicely, Moe.

Is there a silver ceserewitch or a consolation race? I feel that would be his best chance, as he'll be taking a huge step up in class if running in the Ceserewitch.

At least he in good form and would be running with a low weight.
 
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Everyone knows I love a well handicapped horse but the problem is these days that it's much more likely the winner is a 115 rated animal carrying 9.10 in the ceserewitch than one carrying 8 stone who's half a dozen pound well in...

The first thing I do look for in lower rated animals these days is consistency. At least Wise Eagle is a consistent type. He'd surely run a good race and probably even finish nearer first than last but winning it will prove very difficult.
 
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Not as long as others, but I put my 50p each way at 22/1 on Lovely Esteem in the 5:15 in The Curragh. It's not even JP's favoured of his two if the jockey selection is anything to go by. She's been in weaker races compared to some of the others, and down 4 or 5 lengths, but coming in 3rd or 4th, one a group race place is nothing to sneeze at, and she has a maiden win. I think it's a real **** or get off the pot kind of moment for the horse, baptism of fire kind of thing.

I've not followed flat racing for long, so I don't know how The Curragh's stalls are biased, but she's in the first one, so it is a sink or swim aspect to the extremity as well.
 
Goodwood 3.00 - White Pepper 20/1 - Nagano (10/11) looks the most likely candidate but I can’t help being fascinated by the perverse logic of siding with the lowest rated runner, White Pepper. Cromwell has shown time and again that he doesn’t send across no-hopers and the booking of Dettori adds to the intrigue. I have indulged my curiosity.
 
Not aftertiming because I wasn't on either, but I had Indian Raj in the Curragh yesterday (came 4th 33/1) and Brazilian Surprise (came 3rd 33/1) in Tipp on Thursday in my spreadsheet, and said, "The market knows better than me" to both. Now, instead of realising I've blown my long odds selection, I'm looking at Queen Amanierenas in the 4.15 in Navan. I think the ground will play an effect, with poor runs on poor ground and ok runs on good ground. The bookies had her at 16/1 at one point, out now to 33/1, so either connections are being warned off and I'm a fool for thinking of her, but I do think there's something there.

After missing out on e/w money with two outsiders placing I didn't back, I'm going to do my account balance in trying to chase it.
 
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Good luck today 50P and if it wins for you then you can ignore the old saying......." if you missed the wedding don't go to the funeral"
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Goodwood 3.00 - White Pepper 20/1 - Nagano (10/11) looks the most likely candidate but I can’t help being fascinated by the perverse logic of siding with the lowest rated runner, White Pepper. Cromwell has shown time and again that he doesn’t send across no-hopers and the booking of Dettori adds to the intrigue. I have indulged my curiosity.
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One dead cat...
 
I’m not really one for longshots as you know, but Porsche Cavalier 2:35 Salisbury tomorrow looks interesting at 33/1. She came over from Ireland after a couple of reasonably decent Maiden runs. Won a Class 4 Maiden at Sandown and was the pitched into a Listed race at Newbury where she ran quite well and would have finished better than 7th without interference. My notes:

13/8 Newbury - ran well and would have finished closer had the third not drifted across her bows towards the end - she was tiring at the time, but Charles Bishop reported that she was denied a clear run so maybe she had a bit left. Look out for her down in grade.

She’s actually up in grade to Group 3 tomorrow, which is not what I was looking for, but Robyn Brisland must think she has something and I might have a tiny nibble or, more probably, watch her with interest for the future.
 
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barjon said:
I’m not really one for longshots as you know, but Porsche Cavalier 2:35 Salisbury tomorrow looks interesting at 33/1. She came over from Ireland after a couple of reasonably decent Maiden runs. Won a Class 4 Maiden at Sandown and was the pitched into a Listed race at Newbury where she ran quite well and would have finished better than 7th without interference. My notes:

13/8 Newbury - ran well and would have finished closer had the third not drifted across her bows towards the end - she was tiring at the time, but Charles Bishop reported that she was denied a clear run so maybe she had a bit left. Look out for her down in grade.

She’s actually up in grade to Group 3 tomorrow, which is not what I was looking for, but Robyn Brisland must think she has something and I might have a tiny nibble or, more probably, watch her with interest for the future.
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Ran well into 4th (Sky paid) but it maybe that getting some black type was the aim rather than any expectation of better. I’m keen to see her down in grade now she’s got it.
 
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It's a very quiet day for me. I literally didn't look into any form for any race. I was even tempted not to have a bet at all.

I did, though, compile my cards and have a quick look through the better races and have come up with a longshot in absolute terms, since it pays over 40/1.

Lord Glitters 1.45 Hay
Valley Forge 2.20 Hay
Starman 3.30 Hay
Wahraan 3.10 Asc

Win accumulator. All favourites, which is very unlike me, but, for me, all very difficult to oppose with any confidence.
 
I think I put up Hochfeld (2.55 Hay) recently so will have to have some sickness insurance on it today (22/1 available). I wouldn't put it up if it wasn't rated to run well so it will probably win sooner rather than later. It wasn't a qualifier when I checked yesterday but it is now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It's a very quiet day for me. I literally didn't look into any form for any race. I was even tempted not to have a bet at all.

I did, though, compile my cards and have a quick look through the better races and have come up with a longshot in absolute terms, since it pays over 40/1.

Lord Glitters 1.45 Hay
Valley Forge 2.20 Hay
Starman 3.30 Hay
Wahraan 3.10 Asc

Win accumulator. All favourites, which is very unlike me, but, for me, all very difficult to oppose with any confidence.
Click to expand...

Fckin hell.

Now you know why I usually avoid favourites...
 
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