The 2021 Longshot Thread

Valley Forge was given a bad ride by Probert IMO, came there on the bridle but waited when stamina (compared to the field) was guaranteed. Waited too long, lost the gap and had to switch right outside before powering home too late.

The fact I took 11/4 on Thursday in no way influences this opinion :whistle:
 
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wilsonl said:
Valley Forge was given a bad ride by Probert IMO, came there on the bridle but waited when stamina (compared to the field) was guaranteed. Waited too long, lost the gap and had to switch right outside before powering home too late.

The fact I took 11/4 on Thursday in no way influences this opinion :whistle:
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Yes, I wanted to avoid sounding like a bad loser :lol:
 
Ayr Gold Cup - Fivethousandtoone 33/1 - ran a nice race behind the favourite yesterday despite losing a shoe in the process, by far his most encouraging run of a light season, which he started rated 110. He'll be off 101 at Ayr and is guaranteed to make the cut. No doubt the trainer and/or connections will have three or four in the race but I'm smelling a year-long plot with this one. I just hope it isn't a plot of dung.
 
St Leger -

Scope ran third behind Third Realm and Adayar in the Lingfield derby trial earlier this year. He was off the track for a while after that day. I was waiting to see if trainer Ralph Beckett would run him in a handicap off a mark of 95, but instead he choose to give Scope his next run in the Great Voltigeur, where I think his 5th placing of eight runners underestimates his run and was worth more than the bare result.

There wasn't a lot splitting the field in what was nearly a blanket finish, (bar the winner Yibir). Scope had High Definition and Third Realm behind him this day, and wasn't actually that far away from Sir Lucan, The Medittaranian and Youth Spirit.

So on only his fifth start he must be more open to progress than most, while a likely brutal pace may help him stay on past a few beaten horses in the final few furlongs, so a chance is taken with over eight runners at about 50/1 each way. With 10 declared at present we can be fairly confident that at least eight runners will go to post.
 
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Nebo 4.20 Leopardstown has had an admirable season so far with 2 wins 33/1 and 8/1 and no bad run yet.
Young Jake Coen takes a valuable 10 lb off tomorrow , has loads of riding experience despite his claim and the horse could race riderless and still perform to his ability as he is so genuine.
a cracking ew bet.
 
Marb said:
St Leger -

Scope ran third behind Third Realm and Adayar in the Lingfield derby trial earlier this year. He was off the track for a while after that day. I was waiting to see if trainer Ralph Beckett would run him in a handicap off a mark of 95, but instead he choose to give Scope his next run in the Great Voltigeur, where I think his 5th placing of eight runners underestimates his run and was worth more than the bare result.

There wasn't a lot splitting the field in what was nearly a blanket finish, (bar the winner Yibir). Scope had High Definition and Third Realm behind him this day, and wasn't actually that far away from Sir Lucan, The Medittaranian and Youth Spirit.

So on only his fifth start he must be more open to progress than most, while a likely brutal pace may help him stay on past a few beaten horses in the final few furlongs, so a chance is taken with over eight runners at about 50/1 each way. With 10 declared at present we can be fairly confident that at least eight runners will go to post.
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That's a decent shout, Marb. I haven't had time to look at the race in any depth but take out the favourite and he only has 5lbs to find with the best of the rest and, as you say, he is lightly enough raced to have more progress in him and he should stay.
 
I've taken two against the field in the Portland, really just based on cherrypicking their respective form.

Embour 33/1 7 places
Treacherous 28/1 7 places

And in the last, Ebury 22/1 looks a bit generous. I've also taken this one in a double with Cardano which would pay around 250/1.
 
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AYR GOLD CUP next saturday.
I've done 3.
CHIEFOFCHIEFS 25/1
HEY JONESEY 33/1 1lb lower than when he won the wokingham last year.
STONE OF DESTINY 33/1 boosted to 36.75/1
 
Outsider said:
AYR GOLD CUP next saturday.
I've done 3.
CHIEFOFCHIEFS 25/1
HEY JONESEY 33/1 1lb lower than when he won the wokingham last year.
STONE OF DESTINY 33/1 boosted to 36.75/1
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Well that's good,looks like they have taken stones of destiny out and it looks like the same with my Cambridgeshire bet Orbaan.
 
Punchestown 5.15 Maestro Stick

Some decent market support for this fella. He's lightly raced, only been seen on turf twice, but hasn't actually ran too badly on either of those starts.

Now combined with the fact I'm not that keen on the market leaders, then the Maestro must be worth a go at a pony, 25/1..

You heard it here first...

Mind you, I think Boreham Bill in the Lanzarote back on page 3 was the last time I tipped a winning longshot.
 
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Goodwood 1.45

A chance taken on Sanaadh. He's been lightly raced for an eight year old, having run eighteen times and winning three of those on turf. He's won a couple of decent races at Newcastle, and after a recent wind operation maybe he can out run the odds here now back on turf.
 
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Marb said:
Goodwood 1.45

A chance taken on Sanaadh. He's been lightly raced for an eight year old, having run eighteen times and winning three of those on turf. He's won a couple of decent races at Newcastle, and after a recent wind operation maybe he can out run the odds here now back on turf.
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Apologies that he doesn't qualify for this thread anymore, as at the time of writing I'm sure he was 20/1+.

He's now best price 8 or 9s.

Some move that...
 
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I'm trying to be philosophical about missing out on the mega prices available about Chichester earlier, ahead of the Cambridgeshire on Saturday.

Regulars will know I like to home in on horses that are officially well in and Chichester will turn up 9lbs to the good.

I've been more than distracted lately and not online much and haven't even really been following the racing for at least a couple of weeks and got online the other to discover I've missed out on a 66/1 shot (although I can't be sure he was that price for any length of time after his recent win).

However, I've dug up a 66/1 shot for the race and will probably go in again on the morning if the price goes out, as I half-expect: Data Protection is a decent tool on a going day. He's only a pound higher than when a clear-cut winner (maybe stole it a bit) at Newmarket this summer and is likely to race prominently again thus avoiding any trouble in running. The jockey is unknown to me but he appears to have plenty of experience in Ireland, riding for some big trainers, so I'm not anticipating watch a rank amateur in the saddle and the 7lb claim won't do any harm.

Minimum stakes, though.
 
Nwm 4.40 - Turntable 25/1 - the majority of his best runs (on RPRs) have been at Newmarket and a couple of recent modest performances see him back on a feasible mark at the track. There hasto be fair chance he's been targeting this race since his last run here, down 2lbs since thenand reunited with Callum Shepherd for whom he seems to go best. I reckon he should be no more than 10/1 (which, of course, means it's 1/10 he won't win so hopes are appropriately tempered).
 
Majestic Dawn in the Cambridgeshire just about qualifies for this thread if you’re prepared to take the fewer places terms with 365 at 20/1.

His recent G3 run where he finished well ahead of horses rated 112, 116 & 111 means his OR of 104 could still underrate him.

I’m normally wary of translating graded race form into handicaps but he’s proven his metal in this type of race already, running out an emphatic winner when lowering the record in this last year. He’s 10lb higher now but he’d have gone close with the extra 10lb last year, is well drawn and his trainers horses are running well.

Newmarket suits his prominent style and I’m confident of at least some sort of return.

I’d prefer him at the price over the shorter priced ones who are priced up more on potential.
 
PLANTADREAM cambridgeshire 100/1 betvictor go 125/1

Not the best of starters but runs on.finished 10th behind magical madness ,bedouins story and Marie's diamond over a mile.
11lb better with mm slightly better with other two.so 100/1 looks a small bet.
 
Probably gonna be way off here but I quite fancy Trais Fluors to surprise. 100/1 with 7 places.

Million things against it, not least the trainer, but its got a nice weight, i like the jockey Harley and with bit of luck its capable of picking up the pieces from the back.

I'm a **** gambler though dont follow me. Just posting incase a miracle happens and i can at least gloat / celebrate without after timing.

:cool:
 
Tincan said:
Probably gonna be way off here but I quite fancy Trais Fluors to surprise. 100/1 with 7 places.

Million things against it, not least the trainer, but its got a nice weight, i like the jockey Harley and with bit of luck its capable of picking up the pieces from the back.

I'm a **** gambler though dont follow me. Just posting incase a miracle happens and i can at least gloat / celebrate without after timing.

:cool:
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Nick Luck just tipped this up and I see it's been cut to 50s with bet 365.
 
Outsider said:
PLANTADREAM cambridgeshire 100/1 betvictor go 125/1

Not the best of starters but runs on.finished 10th behind magical madness ,bedouins story and Marie's diamond over a mile.
11lb better with mm slightly better with other two.so 100/1 looks a small bet.
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Took it out.im the kiss of death.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nwm 4.40 - Turntable 25/1 - the majority of his best runs (on RPRs) have been at Newmarket and a couple of recent modest performances see him back on a feasible mark at the track. There hasto be fair chance he's been targeting this race since his last run here, down 2lbs since thenand reunited with Callum Shepherd for whom he seems to go best. I reckon he should be no more than 10/1 (which, of course, means it's 1/10 he won't win so hopes are appropriately tempered).
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I noticed earlier he was generally 14/1 after the withdrawal of two single-figure opponents but went in again just before the off at 20/1 so it's worked out a good race for me.
 
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