The 2022 'Should be odds-on' Thread

I don't see it that much about criticising a trainer as such. I accept that in most races most horses aren't 100% off for their lives. Part of the 'game' is sussing out which is and which isn't trying.

It's why I restrict myself to the more valuable races. The more valuable the race the more likely more of the runners will be trying their very best. Even going into yesterday's race, I suspected Intellogent wasn't really going to be competitive but I sometimes get that kind of thing wrong hence I had sickness insurance on it because £40k to the winner is a dent pot. I wasn't in the least surprised to see it run a 'promising' race. When they're really after a prize the horse will get a different ride, believe me. I wouldn't criticise the trainer or jockey for yesterday. It was all part of a bigger plan for the horse. That's racing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't see it that much about criticising a trainer as such. I accept that in most races most horses aren't 100% off for their lives. Part of the 'game' is sussing out which is and which isn't trying.

It's why I restrict myself to the more valuable races. The more valuable the race the more likely more of the runners will be trying their very best. Even going into yesterday's race, I suspected Intellogent wasn't really going to be competitive but I sometimes get that kind of thing wrong hence I had sickness insurance on it because £40k to the winner is a dent pot. I wasn't in the least surprised to see it run a 'promising' race. When they're really after a prize the horse will get a different ride, believe me. I wouldn't criticise the trainer or jockey for yesterday. It was all part of a bigger plan for the horse. That's racing.
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Exactly.
I've never moaned about losing.
 
reet hard said:
Trainers often use races to bring a horse on,try a new trip,teach it to race differently, or myriad other methods to improve performance, but - it has to be said - their primary objectve is to win races and many punters seem to forget that when they back a loser.
It's often easier to blame skulduggery than to countenance sloppy selection.
Tbh I realised this a long time ago, and rarely criticiise a trainer these days wthout having a long, hard look a myself first.
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So in other words they are not trying.i dont blame skullduggery and I dont think its sloppy selections either.
I've been finding winners this way for years.i know I'm going to have losers but I look at the bigger picture.
I've always said I'm only lending the bookie my money.
My last p/l thread on here had loads of losers but still finished 300 pts up.
 
The 'sloppy selection' is one of my curses.

A couple of years back I went through an extended spell during which I was gradually losing money. I didn't want to think of it as a losing streak because I was finding winners along the way but not enough to keep my curve on a gradual incline, which is what we really all strive to achieve.

I was sending my stuff out to the usual people and plenty of winners were in my top two or three ratings or were marked as '+p' types. I was just backing the wrong ones more often than normally.

It just so happened that this extended spell coincided with a lot of negative things happening in my life away from racing and I can't help thinking that basically I wasn't thinking straight. I reduced my stakes by an average of 80% and kept them low until I saw the account balances rise again. That good change in 'luck' coincided with a lot of the negative stuff elsewhere resolving itself so I'm sure psychology has a role to play in arriving at better selections. My stakes are on the rise again but still only about 50% of where they once were. I'm happy to stick around this mark for now, really only going back to old levels or beyond when I feel particularly strong about something, the majority of which would end up on the 'odds-on' thread.

But I never lose sight of the truth of the old adage, "Every day is a school day".
 
Outsider said:
So in other words they are not trying.
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But they are trying, striving to get a horse into a shape were it can win races,which ultimately pays their bills and gets them more or better horses.
It's our job/hobby to sort out where or when,and dissing others for our own shortcomings is not the way to approach it,imvho.
 
Outsider said:
So in other words they are not trying.i dont blame skullduggery and I dont think its sloppy selections either.
I've been finding winners this way for years.i know I'm going to have losers but I look at the bigger picture.
I've always said I'm only lending the bookie my money.
My last p/l thread on here had loads of losers but still finished 300 pts up.
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Ah yes good memories, that was a fun time. Just remember at the time that I was a bit disappointed that you couldn't crack through the 400 points profit that year :lol:
 
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We really need jinnyj’s input here, but for my twopennyworth there’s a big difference between “trying” (which they are all supposed to be doing according to the rules) and “trying hard” (when they are really out to win if they can).

I work on the basis that those in the “trying hard” camp will be those where the trainer reckons their horse is ready to rock. The form line doesn’t tell us that and I get my clue from the horse’s previous run and the market.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Are we singing from the same sheet when we're talking about "stopping" them?

I've never had any involvement in a racing yard - never even visited one - but I know from over 50 years of watching racing on TV when some horses "aren't there to win", as I prefer to put it.

A trainer only has to send them to a race a couple of gallops short to ensure it won't win. Or change its feed in the lead-up to a race.

I remember years ago a northern trainer saying in an interview they had regular feed and they had a richer feed and most of the time the horses were on regular feed but when they were going for a race seriously they gave the horse the richer feed to ensure it was in peak condition. I don't know if that still happens in that yard but it remains a very successful one.

I'll give another example of a horse that "wasn't there to win" yesterday. Outbreak. Watch the race again. Watch how the jockey waits for everything else to make their move then pretend to be shaking his arms at his horse while not really asking it to go with them. I don't know what the target will be, probably either something at royal Ascot or the Newmarket July Meeting where they have so much success.

Contrast the races/horses mentioned with the efforts of jockeys in the £100k London Gold Cup race. Serious, serious triers virtually across the entire field and a very true-run event.

But please let's not start going down the route of personal attacks again. They serve no real purpose. We're supposed to be reasonable people. Most people on here are good judges in their own way and their opinion/take is worth listening to in a respectful manner, even if we don't agree with it. It's also okay to dismiss the opinion in a respectful manner.
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You were doing fine untill you brought Outbreak into it........I will bite my tongue and say no more about it
 
Outsider said:
The hcapper is more generous these days.you obviously dont like hcaps and dont seem to get what I'm saying.
David O'Meara got Orbaan down 14lb in a year and won the golden mile.
Rhoscolyn has had 2 runs this year and is now 4lb lower.
Horses like Shaquil aren't handicappers.Danny Tudhope is very good at stopping a horse from winning but still makes it look if he is.
Summerghand is a prime example imo.
In your day if a horse went up 7lb yes it did take a long time to get reduced but times have changed.
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!. Ok when is the last time Danny was pulled up by the stewards for not trying? 2. When is the last time he was involved ina massive gamble on a horse showing a amssive improvement in form?

3. Give me one good reason why they would stop Summerghand in the 50k to the winner Howden Handicap when he was already racing below his last winning mark? They certainly arent laying him he's gone off at 18/1 and 14/1.
They dropped him in class but he got tapped for toe at a crucial point by Khanjar who cut him off leaving Danny with nowhere to go except left when he was then stuck behind Badri leaving him no option but to ease him.

At best you could say he ran better than the final place suggested as he is without doubt a much better horse of fast ground.

As for Danny stopping him? I'll leave that one to the judge as Thommo would say
 
Summerghand likes a strong pace and weaving through horses,which is why he does so well in big races.
I'd dispute either he or Danny Tudhope are ungenuine though,Outsider.
 
reet hard said:
Summerghand likes a strong pace and weaving through horses,which is why he does so well in big races.
I'd dispute either he or Danny Tudhope are ungenuine though,Outsider.
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I'm a big fan of both.im not criticising either but it's just my opinion that they need to get beat to get a few pounds off ready for the big races where it matters.
Summerghand won me a lot last year.
Will be interesting tomorrow to see if he dropped a couple of pounds for last time.
When the money is down Danny is as good as anyone.
 
Tanlic said:
!. Ok when is the last time Danny was pulled up by the stewards for not trying? 2. When is the last time he was involved ina massive gamble on a horse showing a amssive improvement in form?

3. Give me one good reason why they would stop Summerghand in the 50k to the winner Howden Handicap when he was already racing below his last winning mark? They certainly arent laying him he's gone off at 18/1 and 14/1.
They dropped him in class but he got tapped for toe at a crucial point by Khanjar who cut him off leaving Danny with nowhere to go except left when he was then stuck behind Badri leaving him no option but to ease him.

At best you could say he ran better than the final place suggested as he is without doubt a much better horse of fast ground.

As for Danny stopping him? I'll leave that one to the judge as Thommo would say
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I give up trying to explain to a knowall. You havent a clue what I'm talking about.
 
From last summer:

Desert Orchid said:
I'm going down the football route for the next one and it's a long-term heavy bet.

Scottish Premiership top scorer - Kyogo Furuhashi (4/1) and Giorgios Giakoumakis (5/1) dutch at 7/4. I think that is massive. I reckon they will be first and second in the charts, miles clear of the rest. I just don't know which will score the most but I do reckon both with score at least 20. 13 was enough to win it last year but that was an outlier. It usually takes closer to 20 and in a good year a real striker will get closer to 30. Both these guys have that kind of figure in them.

...

I'm really confident about this bet but last season showed what bad luck with injuries can do. Injuries are the only thing that will stop this from winning.
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Just to update, the season is now over, Kyogo was top scorer with 27 in the league and something like 35 overall in domestic competitions (with the Cup Final next Saturday teatime), Giako left for Atlanta Utd in January and is scoring for fun over there.

Credit to Kevin van Veen of Motherwell and Lawrence Shankland of Hearts who were second and third on 25 and 24 respectively. They will be the ones to keep tabs on Kyogo next season if the clubs can hold on to them.

A decent winner for the thread.
 
LUKE said:
Would disagree strongly about it being a tender ride -Buick was moving his hands a long way out and was fairly vigorous pushing him in the last 2 furlongs.I would see him as an autumn horse and could see him doing something decent before the end of the year.
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Being nibbled at for Ascot Gold Cup.I would make him favourite if the ground was good to soft or softer.Having said that I wouldn't be lumping on just yet.
 
Haydock 1.15 - I reckon Equilateral has a real shout here but fear Raasel more than anything else. They dutch at around 7/4 and I really can't see anything else winning.
 
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