The 2022 'Should be odds-on' Thread

Yibir taking a right walk. Unfortunately I don't have BOG or cashout with my bet so I'm going to feel annoyed if it goes and wins and I've only got 13/8 :(
 
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Would disagree strongly about it being a tender ride -Buick was moving his hands a long way out and was fairly vigorous pushing him in the last 2 furlongs.I would see him as an autumn horse and could see him doing something decent before the end of the year.
 
I see where you're coming from and there was a short-lived stage of stoking along but once it was clear the effort was going to be in vain any physicality in the saddle gave way to 'looking after' the horse.

I'm not angry at losing or at the ride. Appleby had said on Friday that they had taken him for a racecourse gallop and that was a big factor in my hopes for today but they clearly have something else in mind for the horse.

In similar vein, I was glad I restricted myself to the races with more exposed form today. The number of non-triers on show today was little short of scandalous.
 
Outsider said:
The number of non-triers on show today was little short of scandalous.
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I agree.[/QUOTE]

If racing is so bent why are you betting?

If you like Dessie are referring to Yibir who was off for his life as one you are a poor judge IMO

If not Yibir which horses are you referring to...........a few examples please!!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I see where you're coming from and there was a short-lived stage of stoking along but once it was clear the effort was going to be in vain any physicality in the saddle gave way to 'looking after' the horse.

I'm not angry at losing or at the ride. Appleby had said on Friday that they had taken him for a racecourse gallop and that was a big factor in my hopes for today but they clearly have something else in mind for the horse.

In similar vein, I was glad I restricted myself to the races with more exposed form today. The number of non-triers on show today was little short of scandalous.
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There's a huge different between a tender ride and a jockey looking after a horse once it is blatantly obvious knocking the **** out of him isn't going to improve his place.

Buick gave the horse more than every chance to win and was far from easy on him untill it was blatantly clear nothing he could have done would have improved his position.
 
Tanlic said:
There's a huge different between a tender ride and a jockey looking after a horse once it is blatantly obvious knocking the **** out of him isn't going to improve his place.
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Yes, I know and agree.

Tanlic said:
Buick gave the horse more than every chance to win and was far from easy on him untill it was blatantly clear nothing he could have done would have improved his position.
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Hopefully we can agree to differ on this one?
 
reet hard said:
Easy,Fist.:D
Luke did warn the horse was iffy
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Indeed he did, and his words were rattling round inside my head with half a mile to go! But even at that point I wasn't interpreting it's progress as down to iffiness. I thought Buick was further back than necessary (the front three were midfield through the race and ahead of him - for me, they got the best tactical/positional rides) but still felt confident the horse could pick up those ahead of him. It soon became clear he wasn't going to and a couple of well spaced out strokes with the whip didn't exactly look like the actions of a jockey desperate to win, and the one after those was very half-hearted, as though for appearances' sake. He was looking after the horse and trying to get it into a place without giving it a hard race. That's what I meant by a tender ride.

Having reviewed the race a few times now I'm still uncertain that it was there to win. Perhaps it was a case of 'win if things go your way but the main target is down the line a bit'. I'd be confident we'll see a different performance when the market speaks more in the horse's favour.
 
Tanlic said:
I agree.
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If racing is so bent why are you betting?

If you like Dessie are referring to Yibir who was off for his life as one you are a poor judge IMO

If not Yibir which horses are you referring to...........a few examples please!![/QUOTE]

I wasnt talking about yibir and if you think racing is completely straight then youare a poor judge.i dont worry though I just keep following them it's the way I've made money over the years.short priced favouritesdont interest me.
In my opinion Wanees,star of Orion and INTELLOGENT were 3 that wasnt off yesterday.
It's all a matter of opinions..
 
Aye, if horses weren’t “off” for one reason or another then the handicappers must be absolute pillocks given the finishing distances between horses. What really irritates me is the way stewards seem easily satisfied with pretty facile explanations when they ask the question. Favourite comes last how come? “Would prefer better ground”, “Oh, ok”
 
Outsider said:
If racing is so bent why are you betting?

If you like Dessie are referring to Yibir who was off for his life as one you are a poor judge IMO

If not Yibir which horses are you referring to...........a few examples please!!
Click to expand...

I wasnt talking about yibir and if you think racing is completely straight then youare a poor judge.i dont worry though I just keep following them it's the way I've made money over the years.short priced favouritesdont interest me.
In my opinion Wanees,star of Orion and INTELLOGENT were 3 that wasnt off yesterday.
It's all a matter of opinions..[/QUOTE]

I got as far as Intellogent who is probably the last horse on the planet you would want to be stopping,

The horse has loads of talent but is a compete pig and known for acting up before and during races.

Hollie settled him at the back and 3furlongs out went after him and he was haning like a gate to the left

She never stopped riding him as hard as she could and did really well to get as close as she did.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The secret of stopping a horse is having one that's good enough and reliable enough to stop in the first place

He clearly is not.......you say it's amatter of opinion? IMO it's amatter of common sense.





opping
 
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So how do horses get their hcap Marks down.?
A horse rated over 100 isnt going to win a 20grand race when theres a 100 grand race coming up.
Common sense tells you that.
It mightnt win it but it gives it a better chance.
 
Now you are just being ridiculous

Shaquil won off 102 yesterday and will go up as much as 9lbs for that.
No it's fingers crossed he can step up yet again but he could come up against the likes of Azure Blue off his new mark and that is some ask.

When horses reach their peak and are handicapped out of it then it's along haul back.

There are no shortcuts by simply stopping them and if there were cheating would be rife. It can take 2 years to get back to a realistic mark and you might never win again

95% of seasoned horses (not unknown 2yo's) are better running of their merits even if you are a punting owner. There's nowhere near the amount of cheating people seem to think there is.
Just a load of digruntled punters who think their is.

Blatantly stop one that the punter on the street can spot, till he gets a low mark, and everyone and their uncle will be on it before you.

Run your horse on his merits and he'll tell you when he's ready to win and you'll get a better price and more on.

BTW you going to stop a horse in a 20K race so you can win 100K race you better hope he's got an engine like Nijinsky hidden away.
 
The hcapper is more generous these days.you obviously dont like hcaps and dont seem to get what I'm saying.
David O'Meara got Orbaan down 14lb in a year and won the golden mile.
Rhoscolyn has had 2 runs this year and is now 4lb lower.
Horses like Shaquil aren't handicappers.Danny Tudhope is very good at stopping a horse from winning but still makes it look if he is.
Summerghand is a prime example imo.
In your day if a horse went up 7lb yes it did take a long time to get reduced but times have changed.
 
Are we singing from the same sheet when we're talking about "stopping" them?

I've never had any involvement in a racing yard - never even visited one - but I know from over 50 years of watching racing on TV when some horses "aren't there to win", as I prefer to put it.

A trainer only has to send them to a race a couple of gallops short to ensure it won't win. Or change its feed in the lead-up to a race.

I remember years ago a northern trainer saying in an interview they had regular feed and they had a richer feed and most of the time the horses were on regular feed but when they were going for a race seriously they gave the horse the richer feed to ensure it was in peak condition. I don't know if that still happens in that yard but it remains a very successful one.

I'll give another example of a horse that "wasn't there to win" yesterday. Outbreak. Watch the race again. Watch how the jockey waits for everything else to make their move then pretend to be shaking his arms at his horse while not really asking it to go with them. I don't know what the target will be, probably either something at royal Ascot or the Newmarket July Meeting where they have so much success.

Contrast the races/horses mentioned with the efforts of jockeys in the £100k London Gold Cup race. Serious, serious triers virtually across the entire field and a very true-run event.

But please let's not start going down the route of personal attacks again. They serve no real purpose. We're supposed to be reasonable people. Most people on here are good judges in their own way and their opinion/take is worth listening to in a respectful manner, even if we don't agree with it. It's also okay to dismiss the opinion in a respectful manner.
 
Outsider said:
The hcapper is more generous these days.you obviously dont like hcaps and dont seem to get what I'm saying.
David O'Meara got Orbaan down 14lb in a year and won the golden mile.
Rhoscolyn has had 2 runs this year and is now 4lb lower.
Horses like Shaquil aren't handicappers.Danny Tudhope is very good at stopping a horse from winning but still makes it look if he is.
Summerghand is a prime example imo.
In your day if a horse went up 7lb yes it did take a long time to get reduced but times have changed.
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Plus not forgetting a horse you know well in Kitty's Light who dropped those pounds then won those valuable races the past jumps season.

Tanlic has a point about Noble Style though. I only watched it live but he was at the back and almost off the bridle after two or three furlongs. He wasn't good enough on the day. As for the others who may have lets say been hindered from winning I couldn't comment and don't feel like reviewing each horse in each race...but anyway...

We all know by now some horses win on some days and some races and others don't. Rather simple in that sense.

One of my better bets the last week was the big gamble Eligible at York. He was priced as near 33/1 outsider for the 20+ runner handicap at York earlier this week then won cosily coming from the back of the field to win at the SP 10/1.

Looking back at it, he was a good thing, but if he had never really come up from the back in his race and been tailed off would I dare to claim he was stopped..probably not...I would say he just wasn't good enough on the day. Unless it was so obviously a non trier.

So I can see both sides of the argument on this I really can.

I still think that perhaps the thread I started about what Lydia Hislop said recently has some relevence to some of what's been discussed here.

I have no problem with horses being treated for injuries, but if as I suspect is the case, every now and then a horse comes back into form because the medication it's been given has essentially helped it put its poor form behind it, then basically, once again Lydia's point about a central medical database monitored by the BHA is a worthy point.

I know Lydia's point was mainly in regard to the horses welfare and limiting fatalities, but in the same way some punters have expressed a wish to see horses weight published before each race, in an ideal world which I acknowledge we are not in, I'd like to see more transparancy to punters and the BHA alike, if a horse has been given certain medications over certain time periods. Especially when returning to form months if not sometimes years apart from it's earlier form.
 
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Trainers often use races to bring a horse on,try a new trip,teach it to race differently, or myriad other methods to improve performance, but - it has to be said - their primary objectve is to win races and many punters seem to forget that when they back a loser.
It's often easier to blame skulduggery than to countenance sloppy selection.
Tbh I realised this a long time ago, and rarely criticiise a trainer these days wthout having a long, hard look a myself first.
 
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