The 2024 Longshot Thread

chaumi said:
Belargus 2.45 Hunt Best 22-1 in enough places easy to find

Drops down to a Class 4 for the first time since Dec 20. The yard have run him in several Class 3s and higher since, and Belargus showed a little something in his last race that suggest he's still got a race left. Conditions look OK, 3 miles on likely GS, right-handed. If he does have one race left, he won't be getting many more good opportunities than this.

NG's Aworkinprogress won well a few days back, other recent runners have bombed due either to age (getting on) or age (too inexperienced). If River Tyne runs well in the first, that will suggest the yard is in good nick.
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Good placer, Chaum.
 
My figures for the race. Nice to see them doing well still ahead of Aintree:

[TABLE="width: 362"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]MON
168+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Any Second Now
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Senior Chief
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD]? nov1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Intense Raffles
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD]? ++ v nov1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Frontal Assault
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD][172]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Street Value
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]+?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] We'llhavewan
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]v
169p Hd
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Where It All Began
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]+p nov
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cool Survivor
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]p nov1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Churchstonewarrior
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] History Of Fashion
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Nick Rockett
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]p nov1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dunboyne
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Daily Present
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]p nov1 s
167 Hd
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Minella Cocooner
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]+p nov1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Good Time Jonny
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]176 Hd
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Diol Ker
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]165e
(170?)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hartur D'arc
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]p nov1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Favori De Champdou
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Where's Frankie
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Yeah Man
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]p v
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Royal Thief
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]168?
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
2.20 - Spirit D'Aunou 33/1 (if you can get it - I can't) - well fancied for the Betfair but could go close if back to its best. Not my main bet (that's Kateira) but strikes me as overpriced.

Topham - The Edgar Wallace 25s taken (33s avail) is my main bet in the race so I've also taken it in the ew double with SD'A.
 
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4.40 Pinot Rouge. She dug deep last time in testing conditions and can surely only improve here. A real case of David versus Goliath, with Susan Corbett taking on the big guns. I don't think she has as much to find as the ratings suggest though, plus I'm seeing blue on oddschecker with the 66s likely to go soon. With nine runners worth a kopek or two each way. Hopefully first time cheekpieces can bring about even more improvement.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
2.20 - Spirit D'Aunou 33/1 (if you can get it - I can't) - well fancied for the Betfair but could go close if back to its best. Not my main bet (that's Kateira) but strikes me as overpriced.
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I take it someone 'of influence' has put up Kateira? I was a bit annoyed yesterday that the best I could get was 8/1 when better was available but it's into 4s-ish.
 
Katrina is the Pricewise pick. Currently boosted to 5/1 with Bet365

I was also hoping for a bit bigger


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A couple of longshots for the national tomorrow both 100/1 generally available and to 7 places with Dones atm tbh prices will probably go even bigger tomorrow. Farouk Dalene would be like a pair of aces i cant let go of. He cost me a fortune when he tipped up in the process of possibly hacking up in the Rsa and going through the mud like he was wearing flippers. Obvs a lot of time out with injury but has shown some glimmers of light over hurdles since but would love to see him go well as he's well handicapped if he could show anything near that RSA form. Eldarado Allen is another one whos a bit hit and miss has some bits of form that suggests he may go well has Bredan poweel back on board who usuallly gets a better tune out of him than Freddie gingell. Has had another breathing op and if that works he was staying on well in the Henessy this year which to me is always a decent test for a horse going onto this.

My biggest bet in the race is Adamantly Chosen who's currently 50/1 he'd also qualify for this thread but I gave my reasoning on the GN thread.

Good luck Fellas.
 
I think we are about the only two people on earth who think Eldorado Allen could run well, Danny. Hopefully the ground continues to dry up. I mentioned him with a write up on the Grand National thread somewhere, if you want to have a look. My thoughts are the same to yours though. Staying on in the Hennessy and can benefit from a wind operation. Fingers crossed for us.
 
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Getting on a bit now but MAC TOTTIE loves this place and the fences.did me a favour in 2 topham so had to have a £1 ew at 100/1
 
Wainwright 2.00 Kelso 66-1 generally

Nicky Richards novice hurdler has 4 or 5 to beat on paper in this.
.

Lucinda's and Olly Murphy's runners will obviously be tough and appear to set a good enough standard to win (and win well)

Nick Alexander's Ozzy Cosmo will want better ground and this is more likely a confidence booster after falling last time

Susan Corbett's Johnny Dogs has the look and feel of more a class 4 or 5 handicap prospect

Sandy Thompson's Tigga Time, a Malinas, probably wants further.


Wainwright has every chance of turning out better in the long run than all bar the two at the top of the market. Has had a break so fitness somewhat on trust. Ground unknown, hopefully won't be too soft as he appeared to struggle a little in really deep ground in his second race at Hexham. There's a chance this could be more of an educational run. Overall, this race could just be one or two too early. But the price looks OK in the context of the race, and we may not see 66-1 again.
 
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chaumi said:
Wainwright 2.00 Kelso 66-1 generally
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Well back and even had two in front come down. Much better than this though, today was obviously not the right day. But it'll come, and this won't have done the odds any harm for next time. Maybe he needs better ground, but was never put in this so jury is out.
 
Scottish National - Inis Oirr 20/1, 5 places - Frustratingly, I discovered something on Saturday morning while out and about, namely that I could access bookies (don't know how many yet) via my mobile phone, something I never attempt at home as I'm always using my laptop. Today I had a look at the five day decs and saw Inis Oirr at 20/1. I haven't done any figures yet but I'd been intending to back this since it won for me at Musselburgh earlier this year, when it absolutely hacked up. The stable had the 4/1 joint-fav last year in Your Own Story but I see that ran on Monday (but still engaged although 33s this time). YOS was clearly highly thought of last year and IO is probably also quite well regarded - it looked a long way better than its mark at Musselburgh - and is a first-season novice. It did go up 14lbs for the win and will need to be some way better again to win this but I'm encouraged by the fact they've held on to it, presumably to protect its mark. It jumped the fences at Musselburgh like they were hurdles and shot clear when the jockey let out a half-inch of rein. Being trained in Scotland by a dual GN-winning trainer, the chances are it will be a popular choice through the week and will probably halve in price. To be honest, I'd thought Apple Away was being plotted up for it but she's not in it.
 
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3.50 Cheltenham
Hector Javilex is currently 20/1 with Bet365 (5 places) but no more than 12s elsewhere. He’s won here before absolutely hacking up and didn’t run badly in the Pertemps although weakening quickly from the last. Eased 2lb for that run he should have a chance in this weaker race


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Desert Orchid said:
Scottish National - Inis Oirr 20/1, 5 places - Frustratingly, I discovered something on Saturday morning while out and about, namely that I could access bookies (don't know how many yet) via my mobile phone, something I never attempt at home as I'm always using my laptop. Today I had a look at the five day decs and saw Inis Oirr at 20/1. I haven't done any figures yet but I'd been intending to back this since it won for me at Musselburgh earlier this year, when it absolutely hacked up. The stable had the 4/1 joint-fav last year in Your Own Story but I see that ran on Monday (but still engaged although 33s this time). YOS was clearly highly thought of last year and IO is probably also quite well regarded - it looked a long way better than its mark at Musselburgh - and is a first-season novice. It did go up 14lbs for the win and will need to be some way better again to win this but I'm encouraged by the fact they've held on to it, presumably to protect its mark. It jumped the fences at Musselburgh like they were hurdles and shot clear when the jockey let out a half-inch of rein. Being trained in Scotland by a dual GN-winning trainer, the chances are it will be a popular choice through the week and will probably halve in price. To be honest, I'd thought Apple Away was being plotted up for it but she's not in it.
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I agree.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One to watch for the future: Navagio - nothing went right for it [in the Lincoln].
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Runs in the Spring Cup on Saturday but only 10s tops.

I see my hopes of being able to bet more widely here in Spain have been shattered. When I tried to back this one this morning I wasn't allowed to via my phone. I wonder if the difference is that last week I was out and about whereas today I was trying from the hotel. I'll try again when I'm out and about later just to see. I wanted to take the 10s but it's only 17/2 with Unibet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Runs in the Spring Cup on Saturday but only 10s tops.

I see my hopes of being able to bet more widely here in Spain have been shattered. When I tried to back this one this morning I wasn't allowed to via my phone. I wonder if the difference is that last week I was out and about whereas today I was trying from the hotel. I'll try again when I'm out and about later just to see. I wanted to take the 10s but it's only 17/2 with Unibet.
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Turn off WiFi, use your own data and go via websites and not the Apps. I travel all over Europe with my job and have never had an issue ever. My main books are B365, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power.
 
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