The 2024 Longshot Thread

I think Gemirande might have got fifth there but I'm kicking myself for not backing Unexpected Party. I had it top rated and planned to make it my main bet but I couldn't find convincing evidence of its acting in heavy ground so went elsewhere. Always strong form that race. I think we can half-expect it to be back next year for a Langer Dan...
 
My list was, Hardy, Gemirande, Frere, Unexpected, Liberty and then Calico in that order and I backed all of them. Quite chuffed because I only looked at the race ten minutes before the start.
 
I've taken two complete rags in the Bumper:

Stavvy 150/1, 5 place - Jane C-H can get them to run well (and occasionally win) at very big prices at the Flatfestivals so why not..

Union Avenue - 150/1, 5 places - I rate Jimmy Moffat. I don't think he sends them down here unless he likes them.
 
Ken Pitterson picked out Romeo Coolio so I was hoping it would hold on.
 
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Ga Law is too big a price as a longshot in the Ryanair.

He's positive in the betting with solid form around this track. He's coming into this race in the best form of his life, so he's more of a 12's or 14's chance in my book, than the current odds available. He's a really sound each way chance.

I see Le Patron is drifting hard in the Turners, which is off putting. He could run well and still only finish 6th or 7th, with the calibre of the race he's in.

He's in my each way super heinz. I got a couple placers yesterday including Franciscan Rock at big odds, so I'll be cheering him on.
He's got his ground for sure. He won't be beaten half the track because of the ground anyway.

I'm just hoping it turns out the last day wasn't his true running. He needs to jump and travel a lot more fluently today.

He looked to me like a big old unit of a horse at Sandown, which is why I think he'll like as much cut in the ground as he can get today, but wasn't enjoying that race at Sandown.

Ground too quick then? Maybe, but it was too bad to be true anyhow.
 
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Friday 5.30

I give a shout to Jason The Militant in this, not because he is currently joint rank outsider for the Martin Pipe tomorrow, but because he's a horse who was winning graded hurdles in Ireland back in the day, 2 or 3 years ago. He reached a peak rating of 158 then, before switching to Phillip Kirby's yard. His new trainer then proceeded to get his mark down to great effect, when running against Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. Obviously Jason The Militant came nowhere in that. He's dropped more than a stone this season alone and has continued his massive drop in the ratings, now rated 123. They stick some new headgear on tomorrow. Rightly or wrongly I've got Phillip Kirby down as a trainer where the betting market can be a guide, so any market support I'd view as a positive. I have to back him in the event he comes back to his best form and sneaks into a place.
 
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Marb said:
Friday 5.30

I give a shout to Jason The Militant in this, not because he is currently joint rank outsider for the Martin Pipe tomorrow, but because he's a horse who was winning graded hurdles in Ireland back in the day, 2 or 3 years ago. He reached a peak rating of 158 then, before switching to Phillip Kirby's yard. His new trainer then proceeded to get his mark down to great effect, when running against Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. Obviously Jason The Militant came nowhere in that. He's dropped more than a stone this season alone and has continued his massive drop in the ratings, now rated 123. They stick some new headgear on tomorrow. Rightly or wrong I've got Phillip Kirby down as a trainer where the betting market can be a guide, so any market support I'd view as a positive. I have to back him in the event he comes back to his best form and sneaks into a place.
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Likewise.
:thumbsup:

IN this 4.50 today I've taken the two absolute rags ew for the sake of an interest. I hope JDG wins even thought it will salt into the FV wounds since I had them in a double but I'm not going to back her at short odds in a single.
 
Last one for my super heinz each way is Celebre D'allen in a few minutes. I don't think he can win but a place is possible I'm hoping.

Would do me a big favour profit wise if he could scrape home with a top five finish.
 
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Kim Muir - Grozni 70/1, 6 places & Demnat 50s, 6pl.

Grozni is top on current form but vulnerable to improvers.

Demnat could be well in if he can progress his hurdles ability to fences.
 
Marb said:
Friday 5.30

I give a shout to Jason The Militant in this, not because he is currently joint rank outsider for the Martin Pipe tomorrow, but because he's a horse who was winning graded hurdles in Ireland back in the day, 2 or 3 years ago. He reached a peak rating of 158 then, before switching to Phillip Kirby's yard. His new trainer then proceeded to get his mark down to great effect, when running against Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. Obviously Jason The Militant came nowhere in that. He's dropped more than a stone this season alone and has continued his massive drop in the ratings, now rated 123. They stick some new headgear on tomorrow. Rightly or wrongly I've got Phillip Kirby down as a trainer where the betting market can be a guide, so any market support I'd view as a positive. I have to back him in the event he comes back to his best form and sneaks into a place.
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Now into top price 50/1 from the 100's I took last night. A really good sign for a return to form. Fingers crossed.
 
In years gone by when the ground has been heavy I've backed out and out mudlarks against the hotpots and hoped for the best and been rewarded with returns for the likes of Davy Lad (14/1), Yahoo 100/1 2nd) and Synchronised (16/1) springing immediately to mind so I'm going to try two against the field.

Nassalam - I missed the 33s but felt okay about taking 22s to four places. His WGN win isn't far off what Master Oats achieved (OK, MO wasn't up against a GDC).

Monkfish - Danny Mullins commented after his comeback earlier this season "...could be a Willie special". I think that was in relation to the Stayers' Hurdle but this test today will suit him better than many. Again, I missed the 22s but happy to settle for 28s to four places.

(All that said, I think conditions will suit GDC as much as any of them.)

And I have Corach Rambler at 20s (and 10s without GDC). I'll cash out on that one if I can. I'm worried about the ground for him and can see him being pulled up ahead of the National.
 
Two for the County:

Petit Tonnerre 22/1, 5 places - of last years principals, which are handicapped to finish together on that form, this one is the longest-priced and there has to be every chance his campaign has been geared around another go at this race.

By Your Side 70/1, 6 places - Not handicapped to win on my ratings but in the top six and the only one I have noted as requiring heavy ground. Hopefully will be plugging on when the others are calling for the oxygen tank.
 
I see that my favourite horse in training, Mr Freedom is blue on oddschecker. Annoyed that I didn’t back him last night. Much as I’ve found this years festival disappointing it would all be turned around if Sheena could win a race like this. She’s a proper giant slayer at times is Sheena. As for Jason the Militant I remember him being tipped up by Kevin Blake when he was still in Ireland. He is being backed but Phil’s horses only seem to win when I don’t back them. Although I follow the stable I have to say that his horses seem to improve a lot when they move to other stables, a prime example being Romeo Brown.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two for the County:

Petit Tonnerre 22/1, 5 places - of last years principals, which are handicapped to finish together on that form, this one is the longest-priced and there has to be every chance his campaign has been geared around another go at this race.

By Your Side 70/1, 6 places - Not handicapped to win on my ratings but in the top six and the only one I have noted as requiring heavy ground. Hopefully will be plugging on when the others are calling for the oxygen tank.
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Some of my bets have come out so I’ll slip in By Your Side who was next on the list anyway. I’ve already backed Petit Tonniere along with Afadil, Faiviour, Media, and Sam something or other. Missed out L’Eau as it wasn’t my sort of price. I have enjoyed the handicaps this year but then I always do. Drove past WHills yesterday and remembered with fondness driving to the nearest town to put my bets on each day. I still owe the lady behind the counter a cup of tea although I can’t remember why. The staff in Ladbrokes were miserable but I’m actually famous in Corals having backed Sublimity at 80/1.
 
Two for the Martin Pipe:

Magic Tricks 100/1 & Bingoo 33/1, both to five places.

MT is top on my figures but vulnerable to improvers and plots (but he might be a plot himself).

Bingoo is a Jimmy Moffat and was impressive on is return before prepping down the park in the Morebattle.
 
Utt 2.25 - Glimpse Of Gala, 40/1, 5 places - top on my figures (but vulnerable to improvers) but could win if nothing improves past it.
 
MR PROFESSOR. 50/1 LINCOLN.poor draw to overcome and had a 7lb claimer on last time he won so is basically 12 lb higher. Stays 1m2f and won on soft.
 
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