The 2024 Longshot Thread

2.45 - Bajan Bandit 66/1, 5 places, BOG - finally got round to checking this one out, having mentioned it on my long list for the race elsewhere. Adam Farragher wouldn't be my idea of a job jockey, which is one of the reasons I was holding off, but I now see he had one ride last season for the trainer and it won. So far this season he's had three rides and one has won. He still wouldn't be my idea of a job jockey but I can't really see the booking as a negative now. A small win bet on the exchange also looks in order at 100+/1.
 
Friday, York 2.45 - Epic Poet 28/1, 5 places - He came over from France at the start of last season on a rating of 108 but the Meades never really got a tune out of him in three runs. O’Meara does seem to sweeten these types up and Tudhope takes the mount. He’s top weight because he’s the best horse in the race and he’s come down 10lbs so if O’Meara can work his magic he might just be too good. (Strikes me as the type Outsider will like too.)

I have another longshot in this race but I'm holding for for a drift and BOGs.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, York 2.45 - Epic Poet 28/1, 5 places - He came over from France at the start of last season on a rating of 108 but the Meades never really got a tune out of him in three runs. O’Meara does seem to sweeten these types up and Tudhope takes the mount. He’s top weight because he’s the best horse in the race and he’s come down 10lbs so if O’Meara can work his magic he might just be too good. (Strikes me as the type Outsider will like too.)
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That was no more than a gentle seasonal reintroduction.

I'm double annoyed because I was all over Botanical like a rash last week but they took it out citing the ground. It was probably faster here and he handled it fine.

I hope it isn't going to be one of those days.
 
Nwm 2.40 - Imperial Fighter 33/1, 4 pl - if this drifts in the morning I'll go in again but I have to say the bet is experimental. Not far off the top on older form on my figures, Imperial Fighter has for some time has been running at a mile, going up to 10f a few times so the drop back to 7f here had me dismissing him but he's now with Osborne who is one shrewd cookie so I thought I'd dig deeper and found that its stride data conforms with those of a 6f-7f horse (unless I'm not interpreting it correctly, which is entirely possible) so I thought it might be an Osborne special. Then again, it might be a prep for royal Ascot where he loves to bag a winner. Anyway, it's a cheap risk to find out if I'm wrong.
 
Newbury 1.50 - Cemhaan 25/1 - clear second-top on my figures so I have to think the price is all wrong, plus he looks as though he's still improving. If Desert Hero doesn't run his race he could even win.

Newbury 4.10 - Rumstar 25/1, 4 places - close up in the Commonwealth Cup and Hackwood last season, could be chucked in off 102 but I suspect the Wokingham is the target.
 
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Cemhaan looks pretty weak this morning, out to 33s and pink. Confidence is diminishing. I did look at the market without the favourite but the bookies appear to have stopped offering ew on that market, plus they're reducing the odds very much in their own favour. With DH at evens, I was expecting 16/1 but 10s is the best on offer. I could almost et my head round that if they were going three places but it's a win-only market. Shower of shiters.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nwm 2.40 - Imperial Fighter 33/1, 4 pl - if this drifts in the morning I'll go in again but I have to say the bet is experimental. Not far off the top on older form on my figures, Imperial Fighter has for some time has been running at a mile, going up to 10f a few times so the drop back to 7f here had me dismissing him but he's now with Osborne who is one shrewd cookie so I thought I'd dig deeper and found that its stride data conforms with those of a 6f-7f horse (unless I'm not interpreting it correctly, which is entirely possible) so I thought it might be an Osborne special. Then again, it might be a prep for royal Ascot where he loves to bag a winner. Anyway, it's a cheap risk to find out if I'm wrong.
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Drifted this morning to 50s and I shat it. Back into 33s in a few places but I managed to get 40s.
 
Nightmare. Absolute nightmare. Had two good bets this week that were both second clear of the third beaten by horses that really, a lot of time wouldn't be running. Align the Stars beaten by a fucking Ballydoyle handicapper. Keep them in Ireland Aidan pls Aidan and Charyn there, ran an absolute stormer. Fuck off
 
Saturday, Temple Stakes - Flora Of Bermuda 25/1, 4 places - this is as much an intuitive punt for me as anything else. The other two 3yos, who were first and third in the Palace House, are 16/1 and 9/1 respectively but neither holds an entry in the G1 Kings Stand. Beautiful Diamond holds entries in the Wokingham and July Cup, both over 6f, which kind of points to his future, while Seven Questions doesn't hold any entry beyond this race. I reckon Flora Of Bermuda might be better than both. I'm generally against backing 3yos against their seniors at this stage of the season but the fact that two of them could figure in the likes of the Palace House might say a lot about the older sprinters. Balding is one of my favourite trainers and Murphy is operating at 27% (70% first four finishes) for him this season.

And how about the ew double with Solent Gateway (3.30, 20/1, 4 places, top on my figures and Murphy up, 42% for the trainer this season) for a 545/1 bit of fun :cool:
 
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Derby - Sayedaty Sadaty 100/1 - having seen how the yard's horses ran in recent trials, I think this one might outrun its odds and improve significantly for another step up in trip. At the moment it's all just a hunch but Balding has form with outsiders in the race.

Likewise - Portland 100/1 - for AOB. Running on well at 10f in the Sandown trial, he's bred for the Leger so a strongly Derby might play into his hands. He's rated only 4lbs behind 5/1 shot Los Angeles for the yard and higher than others at shorter prices.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Derby - Sayedaty Sadaty 100/1 - having seen how the yard's horses ran in recent trials, I think this one might outrun its odds and improve significantly for another step up in trip. At the moment it's all just a hunch but Balding has form with outsiders in the race.

Likewise - Portland 100/1 - for AOB. Running on well at 10f in the Sandown trial, he's bred for the Leger so a strongly Derby might play into his hands. He's rated only 4lbs behind 5/1 shot Los Angeles for the yard and higher than others at shorter prices.
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Is Padraig Beggy riding it.
 
York 2.45 - Hiya Maite 28/1, 4 places - (I tried to take 30/1 with Betfair but they wanted to limit me to £1.35 :ROFLMAO: ) His turf mark is 6lbs below his AW mark, the latter because he ran right away from a strong field in a fast time last back-end but before that his marks were the same for both codes. I'm assuming he'll be just as good back on turf.
 
Tolstoy in the first at York.
Useful 2yo for Gosden, with winning form, with juice in the ground.
Slipped way down the handicap now.
Blew the start for his new trainer, but I think that was a one off.
Could be a lively outsider at 33s.
 
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