The 2025 Christmas Hurdle

[Ian_Davies]

Nine entries for this Boxing Day feast over timber at the under-threat Sunbury venue.

Alexei Joe Tizzard
Anzadam Willie Mullins
Celtic Dino Sam Thomas
Give It To Me Oj Gary & Josh Moore
Golden Ace Jeremy Scott
Nemean Lion Kerry Lee
Rubaud Paul Nicholls
Sir Gino Nicky Henderson
Tripoli Flyer Fergal O'Brien

Ante Post Betting: Link to follow

 

[Desert Orchid]

Nine entries and the bookies are only going two places.

I think it's accepted that Alexei won't run but that would still leave eight so there's really no excuse for them not going three places this far out.

The one I have my eye on is an each-way price but there's no way I'm going to get involved at two places.

FWIW I reckon Alexei probably had as good a chance in this as it did in yesterday's race.

 

[Slim]

A fit Sir Gino would win this race by a hurdle. There isn't an average Grade 1 hurdler in the race nevermind s good one.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Fascinating race in my eyes.

I'm not big on taking short prices about horses after long lay-offs - it's not just a question of fitness, it's whether a horse retains its ability and the percentage of horses (even young horses) who, for one reason or another, just aren't the same the next season is high enough to make me wary.

Didn't Sir Gino nearly die or something?

He's probably fine now, but "probably" doesn't cut it for me at 8/11.

Take him out and I'm afraid I think the Fighting Fifth form is as good it gets.

But the mare is capable of running a shocker, I've gone from loving Anzadam to thinking he's a bridle ponce and Nemean Lion is a bit behind both.

If Alexei was going to be a Champion Hurdler, he'd have won off 147 on Saturday.

He didn't, so he won't be.

Walsworth could beat the rest on his Penny Farthing, granted a following wind after a beans on toast.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-r...tional-hunt/ladbrokes-christmas-hurdle/winner

 

[Danny]

Surely they won't run Anzadam and Sir G against each other ? The obvious answer is Anzadam runs in Ireland but Mullins is fairly well covered in that race there is a little part of me that thinks is Henderson about to slip the punters another custard ?

I'l hold my hands up to having backed Celtic Dino for the champion hurdle in an impulsive moment a couple of months ago and I'm probably thinking I was way off the mark despite the Welsh champion form working out alright. He also put his worst performance up at this course last year when best out of sight by Tripoli Flyer. I'm not holding out much hope that he'll run well enough here to warrant an entry in the big one in March.

Looking at the betting there's not much room for manoeuvre. Probably the best price available in the race atm from an antepost perspective would be Golden ace at 5's as you know she's running, in form and running to a standard that none of these bar Sir Gino has ever surpassed or is ever likely to with exception of Anzadam but as said I don't think both Donnelly horses will run. As you said Sir Gino is back from a lay off so has his own questions to answer at an odds on price.

Not bet race for me but will be interested to see how Celtic Dino gets on but I fear it'll be one ante-post ticket up in smoke after this.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Surely they won't run Anzadam and Sir G against each other ? The obvious answer is Anzadam runs in Ireland but Mullins is fairly well covered in that race there is a little part of me that thinks is Henderson about to slip the punters another custard ?

I'l hold my hands up to having backed Celtic Dino for the champion hurdle in an impulsive moment a couple of months ago and I'm probably thinking I was way off the mark despite the Welsh champion form working out alright. He also put his worst performance up at this course last year when best out of sight by Tripoli Flyer. I'm not holding out much hope that he'll run well enough here to warrant an entry in the big one in March.

Looking at the betting there's not much room for manoeuvre. Probably the best price available in the race atm from an antepost perspective would be Golden ace at 5's as you know she's running, in form and running to a standard that none of these bar Sir Gino has ever surpassed or is ever likely to with exception of Anzadam but as said I don't think both Donnelly horses will run. As you said Sir Gino is back from a lay off so has his own questions to answer at an odds on price.

Not bet race for me but will be interested to see how Celtic Dino gets on but I fear it'll be one ante-post ticket up in smoke after this.

We're on the same page, Daniel.

I probably won't have a bet, but if I do it may well be Golden Ace.

I'm not taking 8/11 about a beast who was having the last rites read to him a year ago and hasn't been sighted since and I think she's less likely to have a Wetherby-esque off day than Anzadam (if he even shows up) is to down tools if asked to battle.

Golden Ace may be the luckiest Champion Hurdle winner ever, but the two fallers who gifted it to her are imo gone at the game and sidelined with injury, so she actually sets the bar at the moment.

 

[Danny]

I think people made a lot of her being a lucky Champion hurdle winner which no doubt she was. But she was going to come a decent 2nd to Stateman and got to within about 4 lengths of him at Punchestown after that and Stateman at his best is proper top level. So It does take a very good one to beat her when on song and there doesn't look very many top class 2 milers about atm. Hopefully something emerges over the festive period.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Timeform's top hurdlers (as of 16 December). Not a single runner in the Christmas Hurdle is listed, hardly surprising since the listed ORs at the moment range from 141 to 152. That's lower Class 2 handicap level. Sir Gino's OR on his chase debut was 157 so I presume that was his hurdles rating following his final win. His current hurdles OR is showing at 163, the same as his chase OR so I presume it is derived from the latter.

As I keep saying, I think hurdlers tend to improve 10lbs for going chasing so the logician in me reckons 10lbs should be deducted when they revert to hurdles.

In SG's case, I'd expect his chase rating to go up to 167+ and for him to be able to run to 157 here, enough to win but not worth backing to do so.

Anzadam's OR as listed in his profile at the RP is 157 but he didn't exactly look that good at Newcastle.